That's a question a lot of people are asking these days, as the O's sit atop the standings in the AL East. Short answer: probably not.

The team has legitimately played well so far this year, but they're not this good. Right now they're on pace for 100+ wins, and everyone knows they can't keep that pace up. Here's what level they need to play at for the rest of the season to hit various win totals:

If they play like a __ win team	They'll end up with __ wins
68	75
70	77
72	79
74	80
76	82
78	83
80	85
82	86
84	88
86	89
88	91
90	92
92	94

As you can see, the wins the team has already banked has lifted their floor up a fair bit, but to actually make the playoffs they're probably going to need to play like a "real" playoff team from here on out.

Here are guys who might be over-performing:

Adam Jones - .302/.350/.591, +6 UZR, 2.5 fWAR

Can he keep it going?

Probably not. Jones' line is carried largely by his home run production - 11 already (on pace for ~47 homers) - and, though he does have legitimate power and is hitting the ball in the air more than he used to, he's still a groundball hitter and just isn't going to maintain a 23.4% home run per flyball rate. If his HR/FB rate was 17% instead (which is higher than his career 13.6%, as well as last year's 16.7%), he'd be hitting a still very good but not amazing .282/.331/.510. Also, Jones probably isn't going to post a +25 UZR this year (I'd take an even 0 going forward). After a -20 total for 2009-11, that would be quite a reversal. Still, he does look better out there - I don't recall often having the thought this year, "if Jones was as good of a center-fielder as people thought he was, he would have caught that ball", which came up not infrequently watching games in previous seasons (and still does with Nick Markakis).

On the bright side, Jones' 5% walk rate is - while still bad - the second highest of his career. And he's cut down on his strike-outs thus far. So while he's probably not a 6 +win player, maybe Jones has finally crossed the 3 (and maybe even 4) win threshold. (He's likely to literally finish above 4 fWAR this year just due to his crazy start, but he could play like a 4 win player from here on out, which would push him into the 5-6 range).

Matt Wieters - .274/.357/.540, +2 DRS, 1.6 fWAR

Same thing as with Jones regarding the homers - 8 already, on pace for ~37, 19% HR/FB rate. At least he's elevating the ball more, which partially explains it (42% flyball rate, compared to ~38-39% previously). Drop his HR/FB% to 14.5% (higher than 11% career and 13.6% last year), and he's hitting .258/.343/.476. That would still be great for a Gold Glove catcher though. It'l be fun to see whether Jones or Wieters leads the team in fWAR this year - the former has the head start, but the latter is probably playing closer to his true talent level so he shouldn't see as much of a drop-off.

Robert Andino - .286/.338/.405, +1 UZR, 0.8 fWAR

Andino's plate discipline type numbers have take a poor turn, going from ~2 K/BB last year to almost 4 K/BB this year. He's not chasing more balls though (slightly fewer, actually), but he's taking more strikes and whiffing much more often when he does swing. A .367 BABIP solves a lot of those problems, at least temporarily. And though 3 home runs isn't exciting (for non-Pujols hitters, at least), Andino hit just 5 total in 2011. He came into the season with 11 career home runs, and is one pace to more than double that up. Still, once the BABIP comes down, things could get a little dicey. Still, a lot of people expected Andino to take a step back this year, and with this start he has a good chance of matching or surpassing last year's 1.8 fWAR.

Chris Davis - .274/.317/.462, +1 UZR, 0.4 fWAR

Above replacement level! The season with Davis is a win-win, in that if he keeps this up (and he could - his .346 BABIP isn't that much higher than his career .336, and his 20.8% HR/FB rate isn't insane given that he really does have a ton of pop, and even if it comes down he can make up for it by hitting fewer groundballs (44.6%, compared to 37.4% career) then, hey, 1-2 win season from him is 1-3 wins more than expected. And if he doesn't (the BABIP and HR/FB% probably will fall some), then we could have the really fun fact of Davis posting a higher fWAR as a pitcher (0.1) than as a position player.

JJ Hardy (?) - .252/.299/.490, +1 UZR, 1.2 fWAR

Home runs again. (It's not even just Camden Yards either, as the team has hit 1.5 home runs per game at home and 1.7 per game on the road.)

Interestingly, Hardy isn't doing anything unusual when you compare to last year:

	FB%	HR/FB%
Career	38.9%	11.8%
2011	43.4%	15.7%
2012	44.5%	15.8%

Hit the ball in the air, and hit it hard. It's certainly working as intended. As a bonus, Hardy is chasing pitches out of the strike-zone way less often than he did last year (while also swinging at strikes more often than in the past, if still a below league average rate - that's a great combo), so his 6.1% walk rate could actually have run to move up some. The main difference between last year and this year is that Hardy's BABIP dropped from .273 to .240. Even that out and he's actually improving on 2011's 4.8 fWAR season. He keeps that up for a little while longer, and he could be worth his entire contract (3 years, $21 M), and perhaps a little extra, in each individual year of the deal. Seems good. (By the way, Jim Hoey has a 5.52 ERA in Triple-A... for the Blue Jays. Brett Jacobson has a 6.55 BB/9 in Double-A for Minnesota. Thanks Andy!)

Under-performers?

Nick Markakis - .245/.333/.434, -4 UZR, 0.2 fWAR

That fielding figure is largely what's keeping Nick down, as his 110 wRC+ is actually higher than the 107 from 2011 (and 2009). The walks are up - an 11.5% rate would be his highest since 2008 - and so are the home runs (6, on pace for ~26, 17.6% HR/FB). I so very, very much want to believe that he can maintain both, especially since he's taking more pitches (in and - especially - out of the zone) and striking out more (normally not good, but my theory for years has been that in an effort to cut down on his K's, Nick started trying to just put the bat on the ball; thus his contact rate went up, as his strike-outs - but also his walks and power numbers - went down). Once his .261 BABIP improves - and there's no real reason it shouldn't - he could be hitting in the neighborhood of .280/.364/.476 (.306 BABIP) if everything else stays as-is (unlikely, but a fan can dream). Combined with a reasonably bad UZR (say, -7), and he could post his first 3+ win season since '08. Not going to approach 6.3 fWAR with the fielding, but I'd take it at this point. More realistically, the walk and home run numbers fall off as the BABIP improves and he finishes at his "new normal" of 2+ wins.

Wilson Betemit - .228/.294/.435, -2 UZR, 0 fWAR

Having him play the field doesn't really help, but once his .267 BABIP improves (.338 career) he should at least be OK at the plate (even if the 21.7% HR/FB rate doesn't keep up).

Mark Reynolds - .191/.324/.337, -5 UZR, -0.5 fWAR

He's walking a ton - career high 16.7% rate - but it looks like the rest of the team has stolen his power. Only 2 homers, and a 7.7% HR/FB rate. That will pick up at some point. The -5 UZR is brutal, but the -21 full season pace would still amazingly result in a 7 run improvement from 2011. Even if you want to be pessimistic and say he's not even more than a replacement level anymore (which wouldn't shock me, but seems overly harsh), that's still much better than what they've seen so far.

So, quick and rough estimate of fWAR:

	On pace for	Finish more like	Difference
Adam Jones	10	5.5	-4.5
Robert Andino	3.5	1.8	-1.7
Matt Wieters	7	5.5	-1.5
Chris Davis	1.7	0.7	-1
JJ Hardy	5	4.5	-0.5
Wilson Betemit	0	0.6	0.6
Nick Markakis	0.9	2	1.1
Mark Reynolds	-2	0	2

That's an almost 6 win swing, between the pace these guys are playing at, and the place they're more likely to end up at. It's actually funny how much of this is on Adam Jones. If he really is even close to this good, then that will be pretty amazing. There are questions about whether the O's should try to extend or trade Jones this year, but that actually depends hugely on Jones himself; if he's actually much better than he's shown in previous years, then the O's near-term outlook is a fair bit brighter and it makes sense to extend him if possible. If this is a mirage, and later this year or next year Jones goes back closer to what he has been - an above average, but merely solid player - then trading him could be fantastic (since the near-term outlook is worse, and you should be able to get more for Jones given his blistering start). That's going to be a big decision for them, and if they guess wrong - trading superstar Jones and having to wait longer to be competitive, or signing solid Jones to a huge deal and then having that cause issues for them when they finally are ready to be truly competitive - it could be pretty bad for the team.

Overall, the offense hasn't been playing too far over their heads, but unless they make up for the inevitable decline in home runs (they're on pace for 254) by improving in other areas, they'll porbably end the year at slightly below average instead of above (currently sitting at 105 wRC+).

Part II - the pitching staff - goes up tomorrow.
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Taking two of three against the Rays - and almost completing the sweep with a valiant (though failed) comeback yesterday - is pretty good. Only a two-game set with the Yankees remains in the "hard" stretch, before the O's get to face KC and Washington.

The Good:

• Jason Hammel started the game out quite nicely, touching 96 with his fastball and getting some whiffs on both it (5 total) and his slider (5 also, plus another on the curve). Control didn't hold up, but against a good offense (with a poor defense behind him) he ended up pitching relatively well; 5 IP, 7 H, 5 R (4 ER), 3 BB, 3 K, 1 HR.
• Xavier Avery picked up his first Major League hit with a rocket double in the right-center field gap, and then later added a stand-up triple down the first-base line. He's pretty fast. Also showed a good approach at the plate in general.
• JJ Hardy had a couple of hits as well, including his 9th home run of the year (also hit a ball to the deepest part of the park that Curtis Granderson ran down). If Hardy stays healthy, it looks like he might have a decent chance of posting another 30 home run season.
• Nick Johnson walked twice, raising his walk rate on the season from 5.8% to 8.9%.

The Bad:

• Chris Davis had a brutal game, going 0-3 at the plate with a strike-out and a double play, and making an error in the field plus misplaying another ball that helped lead to runs scoring. He's just 3-28 (all singles) with 14 K's  and no walks over the last 7 games (starting with the one he won in Boston) - so he's actually hit worse than your average pitcher
• The last three innings for Hammel weren't the best, and though Luis Ayala managed to minimize the damage in the 6th after entering with no outs and the bases loaded, he did give up the game-winning home run to Teixeira in the 7th.
• Dana Eveland somehow navigated the middle of the New York order without giving up a run the 8th, but wasn't as luck in the 9th. Totaled 1.2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 1 HBP, 0 K. The O's traded not one, but two prospects for him. Even if they weren't particularly good ones, that's still pretty bad.

The Final:

With the 7-5 loss, the O's drop back into a tie for first in the AL East. It was not the prettiest game - more like Orioles-Yankee games of old.

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Lots of roster moves for the O's recently. The latest has Mark Reynolds going to the DL, with Bill Hall getting called up to take his place (Hall does done a fine Reynolds' impression in the minors this year, striking out 25 times in 15 games). Brad Bergesen was designated for assignment to open up a spot on the 40-man roster. Sad to see, but Bergesen hasn't been able to get back to the level he pitched at as a rookie in 2009 - not enough K's to make up for the slightly worsening control and fewer groundballs. The Orioles' second round draft pick in 2008, outfielder Xavier Avery, is going to be coming up tomorrow. The 22 year-old hit .266/.370/.468 in Triple-A this year. Not expecting much from him offensively, but maybe he can at least provide a good glove in left.

The Good:

• Brian Matusz looked pretty good. His control did go in and out, but he had it often enough to be effective, hitting the corners several times. The fastball was 90-93, which is a tick higher than it's been sittng this year. Matusz's defense didn't exactly help him out, but it didn't matter in the end. Final line; 5.2 IP, 7 H, 3 R (2 ER), 1 BB, 5 K, 1 HR.
• The bullpen backed Matusz up with 3.1 perfect innings. 3 K's between Luis Ayala (1), Pedro Strop (2), and Jim Johnson (0).
• Nick Markakis picked up a couple of walks. His 12% rate this season is his highest since 2008. His .192 ISO would be his highest ever. And yet his strike-out rate (16.6%) would also be slightly higher than 2008 (which is his career high). Coincidence? If Nick maintains those, and his .257 BABIP comes up, he could have quite a nice offensive year.
• Adam Jones had a pair of hits, including what turned out to be the game winnings two-run single.
• Bill Hall became a true 2012 Oriole by hitting a solo home run.

The Bad:

• Wilson Betemit, playing first-base, made an error - letting a ball go right through his legs - and didn't scoop a throw from Steve Tolleson which would have ended an inning (and prevented 2 runs) and resulted on Tollieon getting the error. It's cool though, because Betemit also went 0-3 with 3 K's at the plate.
• Robert Andino got caught attempting to steal third-base, with one out and the middle of the order up (and a lefty in Nick Markakis at the plate, giving the catcher a clear throw). That dropped the O's to 10 for 20 on the year on steals, which is awful (and the worst in the majors). Break-even is usually somewhere around 70% - the Orioles would need to steal their next 13 in a row without getting caught to get there.

The Final:

The Orioles guarantee the series win with their 5-3 win over the Rays, and make certain that the Rays will leave Baltimore in no better than second place in the AL East. Another week or two of this, and I might start looking at .500 being not only reasonable be fairly likely.

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The Orioles traded third-baseman Josh Bell over to Arizona last month, and the Diamondbacks now have sent over left-handed pitcher Mike Belfiore to complete that deal. Bell was mostly a disappointment in Baltimore after coming over from the Dodgers in the George Sherrill trade. His plate discipline went south, as he hit just .200/.221/.264 when he got a chance in the Majors and posted a 197-63 strike-out to walk ratio in Triple-A in 2010-11. Since switching organizations, Bell has hit .420/.457/.638 with 11 K's to 8 walks - the strike-out rate of 14% is way lower than the 20-27% he had been posting for the Birds. At 25 years old, there's still a little time for Bell to make an impact in the Majors, but it's drawing short.

Belfiore was mostly a starter when he came into pro-ball, but has slowly moved into the bullpen - this year all of his appearances have been in relief. He's taken to that pretty well so far - 28 K's to 5 walks in 19 IP - but being 23 years old in High-A Ball isn't terribly impressive. The O's have assigned the lefty to Double-A, where hopefully he can continue that same level of success. Marc Hulet rated Belfiore as one of Arizona's top 10 prospects a year ago, when it seemed like he might still start:

"His ground-ball rate was average in ’10 but he has a history of producing above-average worm-burning rates. Belfiore was a closer in college, so he’s still adjusting to life as a starting pitcher.... Value-wise, I can see Belfiore fitting in comfortably between those two pitchers (ie. a No. 3 or 4 starter in his prime). His repertoire includes a low-90s fastball, good changeup and an inconsistent breaking ball."

Looks like #3-4 starter is way out the window, but decent LOOGY is still on the table. Considering the O's hole at third-base, trading Bell away for (hopefully) a reliever says something about either what the team thought of Bell (not much) or of Belfiore (a decent amount). Guess we'll see.

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The rain-out yesterday might have provided a nice reprieve for the O's after the drubbing the Rangers inflicted on them in the first two games of the series.

Game one started out in impressive fashion, as the O's set an AL record when Ryan Flaherty, JJ Hardy, and Nick Markakis hit three straight homers to begin the bottom of the first. Interestingly, when the Brewers did that for the first time (in the NL), JJ Hardy was also the second batter in that inning (it was 2007). Colby Lewis mostly settled down after that, retiring a long string of batters, but the O's struck again with homers by Adam Jones and Wilson Betemit in the 7th. Lewis became the first pitcher to ever give up 5 homers while getting at least 10 strike-outs in a game (he K'ed 12, and the pen added a 13th). All five of the Orioles' hits were home runs, with one of their actual baserunners (a walk by Matt Wieters) scoring in a homer and their other (a Chris Davis HBP) getting erased on a double play.

The 6 runs stood up, as Wei-Yin Chen had another nice start; 7.2 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 5 K. Chen missed a bunch of bats, especially with his fastball (10 whiffs). All the flyballs that he allowed stayed in the yard, but that sort of thing isn't likely to continue all year. Chen's FIP dropped to 3.19 with this game, but his xFIP is still up at 4.43 (since he's been an extreme flyball pitcher, but only given up 2 home runs). That's not the worst though, and it's certainly possible that he (a) improves in other ways to off-set the home runs, or (b) manages to continue posting an ERA/FIP below his xFIP (like a Jered Weaver or Matt Cain).

One of the two runs charged to Chen was allowed to score by Luis Ayala, who then himself left two on in the 9th when Jim Johnson came in and allowed a three-run homer. You know, just to make things interesting. The O's held on to win 6-5. Between a position player getting a win, a four home run game, and now three straight homers to start a game, it's been a weird week for the Orioles.

Game two started out in impressive fashion as well, they for the other team. Josh Hamilton came up to the plate with Elvis Andrus on base, which means that josh Hamilton hit a home run (all four of his homers on Tuesday were with Andrus on). Onto Eutaw Street. The O's came back with three run in the 2nd, thanks to 3 Texas errors, but the Rangers' offense was too much to handle. Tommy Hunter did manage to strike out 7 (with only one walk), which is something, and 4 runs in 6 innings isn't the worst. Not good enough though, as the O's lost the game 7-3 and the series (during which they were outscored 36-15).
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Fresh* of taking 5 of 6 in New York and Boston, the O's come home to face off against probably the best team in baseball.

* Actually, probably not very fresh at all, given the marathon yesterday.

The Good:

• Stu Pomeranz was called up before the game to add some depth to the weary bullpen (32 K's to 2 walks in 19 minor league innings this year). I was impressed with what I saw from him in Spring Training, and he didn't disappoint in this game; 3 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 K. He showed a good fastball at 93-96 (got 4 swings and misses with the pitch) and a decent curve. Actually, it might be the case that he has both a two-seamer and a four-seamer, since it looks like there was a distinct cluster of fastballs that had more sink and tail to them. In any case, I expect Pomeranz to be up again even if he gets sent down shortly, and he could be a solid reliever for the team.
• JJ Hardy stayed hot, picking three hits (including a double). He's raised his average almost 50 points in the last two days.
• Robert Andino hit a solo home run (his 3rd of the season - he had 5 all of last year), and Wilson Betemit hit a two-run homer (against a lefty no less)

The Bad:

• Brian Matusz looked good at times, but his command was not good enough to deal with the Rangers' offense (namely former Oriole Brandon Snyder, who homered and drove in 5 on the night). A lot of hits fell in, but many of them were hit mighty hard. He did manage to get 11 whiffs though - 6 on the fastball and 5 on the slider. Final line; 5 IP, 10 H, 7 R, 2 BB, 4 K, 1 HR.
• Jason Berken (also called up), did not fair as well as Pomeranz; 1 IP, 6 H, 7 R (2 ER - thanks Mark Reynolds), 1 BB, 0 K, 2 HR. I've always liked Berken more than I probably should. Hope he can improve his command enough to be a big league reliever again.
• Nick Markakis looked slow and, well, bad. Grounded into a double play, and easily could have hit into two more (those weak grounders only resulted in an out each).

The Final:

The standing ovation for Chris Davis when he came to the plate was pretty fun. Most of the rest of this one... not so much. Not that it was hugely surprising (apparently a lot of fans thought that, since the announced attendance was only ~11 thousand). Try again tomorrow, I guess. And hey, they kept the Rangers from even 30.

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17 innings. 8 Oriole pitchers. Plus Chris Davis.

I came home around 7pm, expecting the final game of the O's-Sox series to be long over. It was still the top of the 17th though, which means I was lucky enough to be able to revel in some of the insanity. Some assorted (mostly real-time) thoughts:

• So Tommy Hunter sucked (4.1 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 1 BB, 2 K) and the pen has been awesome (ended up with 12.2 IP, 1 run allowed)?
• Chris Davis! Struck out a batter! Kevin Gregg K'ed 4! I'm really sorry I missed most of this one - looks like it was insane.
• Wait, is that Darnell McDonald on the mound? Position players are pitching for both teams?
• Nick Markakis has now walked 4 times! And he's 0-4!
• So Davis has actually hit like a pitcher in this game too (0-8, 5 K)? Amazing. First time since Rube Waddell in 1905 that a player has gone 0-8 and gotten a win (against Cy Young and... the Boston Red Sox).
• If Chris Davis hangs on, he'll have more wins this year than Josh Johnson, Edinson Volquez, Ervin Santana, and Ryan Dempster (who has the lowest ERA in the Majors).
• Chris Davis strikes out Adrian Gonzalez. Legit good pitch there too; diving splitter on the outside corner.
• Chris Davis: 2 IP, 1 H, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 double play, and the W. Just... wow.
• Davis actually looked solid on the mound too. Hit 90, and that sinker + splitter/change-up combo could be decent if he worked on his control.
• Chris Davis now has a better strike-out to walk ratio than Jon Lester, Jeremy Hellickson, John Danks, Ricky Romero, Yu Darvish, & Tim Lincecum.
• Davis actually outpitched Tommy Hunter, who started the game and came over with him from Texas in the Koji trade.
• Wieters catching 17 innings is nothing to sneeze at too.
• That's just rubbing salt in the wound of the O's sweeping the Red Sox at Fenway.
• No off day for a while sucks for the team now, but that was so damn awesome it doesn't matter.

Beyond that, JJ Hardy homered twice, Mark Reynolds went 2-3 and matched Markakis' 4 walk, and Adam Jones hit the game-winning three-run homer. Just an incredible game.

Nice recap of the game here. Scouting report on Davis the pitcher here. The clips of Davis getting a couple whiffs are the best. I expect him to get a huge round of applause today at Camden Yards. Deservedly so.

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Game one of this series, the O's went into Fenway and had to face Jon Lester - that usually seems like an auto-loss. Especially when the Birds fell behind. But no, they battled back - a Wieters' triple, Mark Reynolds' first home run of the year (plus a double and a walk), three walks and a hit from Wilson Betemit - and the bullpen pitched 8 scoreless innings as the Orioles picked up the 6-4 win in the 13th inning.

The Good:

• Jason Hammel was once again outstanding, getting groundballs (9-4, GB-FB) and strike-outs while only allowing only one free pass (despite control going in and out). The two-seamer continued to do work, as he repeatedly threw the pitch by left-handed batters (94 moving fastballs off the outside corner are tough to hit, I guess). 7 totals whiffs on fastballs, and a couple more on sliders. It's looking more and more like Hammel - even if he's not a #1 type starter - is a legitiamtly different (and above average) pitcher. Final line; 6.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 8 K.
• Adam Jones crushed a two-run home run out of the park (over the Monster), and Mark Reynolds hit his second home run in as many days (also doubled to deep center-field).
• Every Oriole except - amusingly - Robert Andino got on base, and the team batted around while putting a 7 on the board in the 3rd inning.

The Bad:

• Chris Davis missed at least one more scoop at first on a throw in the dirt. Sure, the infielders need to make better throws, but a major league first-baseman needs to make those plays more often - it seems like Davis

The Final:

Fresh of taking two straight from the Yankees, the O's have won a pair - and locked up the series - in Boston. They have now outscored their AL East opponents 62-47 on the season. Move their record to 18-9, and only need 52-83 (a 63 win full-season pace) to get to 70 on the year. That's looking pretty good at this point, even if I'm not ready to set the sights to 81 yet.

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Normally, going into Yankee Stadium is a nightmare for the Orioles and their pitchers (they went 2-7 with a 6.49 ERA there last year). Their first trip to New York was a bit more impressive this season.

On Monday, Jason Hammel continued to impress with a 6 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 5 K, 1 HR line. He got more groundballs than flyballs, plus 7 swings and misses on his fastballs. That two-seamer has been doing some work this year. Unfortunately the O's could only scrape one run across, and Hammel fell to 3-1 on the season with the 2-1 loss.

Tuesday it was Brian Matusz's second crack at the Yankees' lineup (his first start in 2012 was 4 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 4 BB, 1 K). Things had been on an upward trend since then, though the win eluded him despite a nice start against the Blue Jays last week (6 IP, 0 ER). Better luck in NY, as Matusz had perhaps his best game - 6.1 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 HR - and the offense actually helped him out with 7 runs. The W was Matusz's first since June of 2011 (a streak of 14 games during which he went 0-12).

On to the rubber match of the series:

The Good:

• Jake Arrieta managed to keep his command for the whole game, and ended up looking mighty impressive as a result. 94 mph moving fastballs on the outside corner and big-time curves down and in are just unfair. Got whiffs on his four-seamer (1), two-seamer (3), curveball (4), slider (1), and change-up (1). Just complete control. Final line; 8 IP, 5 H (all singles, 2 erased on double plays), 0 R, 0 BB, 9 K.
• His first time up, Matt Wieters walk on four pitch. His next time up, Ivan Nova started him with two more pitches out of the zone. And then we saw why, as Wieters deposited the first strike he saw into the right-field seats. On the night, Wieters took 11 of the 12 balls thrown to him (and poked the 12th down the third-base line for an infield single) and swung at all 7 strikes (homer, long double off the top of the wall, groundout, four fouls) - that's a pretty nice approach right there. Looking to lock up that "best catcher in baseball" tag.
• It was also good to see Nick Markakis turn on a couple pitches in addition to his usual opposite-field double, lining one into the right-center gap (that was caught) and then crushing one into the bleachers. That was his first homer since the second game of the season.
• Nick Johnson broke out of his 0-fer Tuesday with a double, and added two more hits in this one (a double, and a single off of a lefty). At this rate, he'll get 4 hits next game and should have his batting average above .500 within two weeks.
• JJ Hardy also singled and doubled on the day, while Robert Andino singled three times and walked (now has a .433 BABIP on the season).

The Bad:

• The O's did waste a number of additional scoring chances, including leaving the bases loaded in the first inning. If they had been a little better about that, this one could have been a real blowout (not that it didn't already seem quite lopsided).

The Final:

And the Orioles take it, 5-0. They're only 2-4 against the Yankees on the season now, but have outscored New York by 3 runs overall (23-20). The O's flat-out out-played the Yankees in this series (on the road, no less). Don't really know how to deal with this*, but it's awesome. Bonus; with the Jays putting 11 up on the Rangers, your new AL leader in team ERA is... the Baltimore Orioles. Yeah. (The last time the O's gave up less than even 4.75 runs per game in a season was... 1997, when they went wire-to-wire).

* Yes, the O's did go 47-40 before the break in 2005, with a +22 run differential. And the team's run differential right now is +23 - so they could theoretically go 31-31 with a -1 from here on out and end up in an identical place. Or they could continue their current pace and be 56-31, which would be way cooler.


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Things I didn't expect to hear at the end of April - the starting pitching is carrying the Orioles (the pitchers allowed 1 earned run in this series with the Jays). Yep.

The Good:

• Brian Matusz continues to improve on the mound. I didn't have a great angle to see the plate, but it seemed like maybe he had more consistent command of the fastball. Off-speed stuff was still good. Final line: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 R (0 ER), 2 BB, 3 K.
• Darren O'Day pitched two perfect innings in relief, striking out three.
• Nick Markakis went 3-4 at the plate, with all three hits going to the opposite field. That's nice, but I wouldn't mind seeing him drive a pitch at some point too. Also, if he could have picked up a hits with two runners on in the 7th that would have been swell.
• Adam Jones picked up two hits, including his 6th home run of the year.
• Chris Davis actually had some decent looking at bats, even if he went hitless in the first three. (though he did draw a walk). Then he gets down in the count 0-2 in his 4th plate appearance and hits a two-run homer - go figure.
• Congrats to Ryan Flaherty on picking up his first Major League RBI (sac fly) and his first hit (a bunt single) and his second hit (a real single).

The Bad:

• Nick Johnson is... probably not long for the Majors. 0-3 at the plate as he set the record for starting an O's career with the longest 0-fer amongst position players. Then he doesn't get a bouncer down the first-base line in the 6th (with two outs) that he should have at least knocked down, and the result is a two-run triple (was first scored a hit and the two runs were charged to Matusz, but that was later changed). So Johnson is 0-26, but has (now) been hit by pitches 3 times, walked once, driven in a run, scored 2 runs, and stolen a base(!).
• When the O's don't hit home runs they don't really score - only 2 runs through 7 innings with some runners left on. Then, well, they scored some runs in a hurry. Maybe the team really will just score 750 runs this year by hitting 250 homers.

The Final:

This game probably buys Matusz some extra time in the majors, which is nice to see (as is sweeping Toronto). The win keeps the O's tied for first in the AL East. They only need to win just over 40% of their games from here on out (a 66-win full-season pace) to get to 70.

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