Game 2: Orioles at Rays

Written by Daniel Moroz on .

The Orioles started off their season in the loss column, with a very tough 9th inning blown save. Today the Birds try to even things up behind Jeremy Guthrie, while the Rays go with the hard-throwing Matt Garza. Rays' line-up:
Bat Pos Batting
Bartlett, Jason R SS .500/.600/.500
Crawford, Carl L LF .250/.400/.500
Zobrist, Ben S RF .500/.500/.750
Longoria, Evan R 3B .250/.250/1.000
Pena, Carlos L 1B .250/.250/.250
Upton, BJ R CF .250/.250/.250
Burrell, Pat R DH .250/.250/.500
Shoppach, Kelly R C 1.000/1.000/2.000
Brignac, Reid L 2B .287/.301/.444 ('09)
Garza from 2009:
K/9 BB/9 HR/9 GB rate FIP^ xFIP^ WAR^
8.4 3.5 1.1 39.7% 4.17 4.21 3.4
His stuff^:

Garza throws that four-seam fastball, he throws it pretty hard (~93 mph), and he throws it a lot. He got an above average rate of  swings and misses on it, though it had only an average-ish run value (+0.06 runs per 100 throws, according to FanGraphs). The change-up got mixed in rarely, and while it got some whiffs, it didn't have much sink on it and had a negative run value (-2.93 per 100). The curve had quite a bit of drop, and though batters made contact with it a little more often than average it was still a plus pitch overall (+1.57 runs per 100). The slider was pretty filthy, and was his best pitch by run value (+2.75 per 100). Garza's control can be spotty at times, so some patience at the plate might pay off. The O's are sending up:
Bat Pos Batting
Roberts, Brian S 2B .000/.000/.000
Jones, Adam R CF .600/.600/1.400
Markakis, Nick L RF .333/.600/.667
Tejada, Miguel R SS .000/.000/.000
Scott, Luke L DH .333/.500/1.333
Wieters, Matt S C .500/.500/1.250
Reimold, Nolan R LF .279/.365/.466 ('09)
Atkins, Garrett R 1B .250/.250/.500
Izturis, Cesar S SS .500/.500/.500
Nolan's making his first appearance of 2010. Not sure why they then left him off yesterday - they're still playing on turf. Edit: Seems Pie is out because of a rotator cuff strain. Sounds like he's day-to-day. Guthrie ('09):
K/9 BB/9 HR/9 GB rate FIP xFIP WAR
5.0 2.7 1.6 34.7% 5.31 5.22 1.1
Setting the over/under of home runs allowed by Jeremy at 1.5 (keep in mind that he probably won't be pitching a full 9 innings).

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