Intentionally Walking Ichiro

Situation: O's down 1-0 in the top of the 5th inning 2 outs Runners on second and third Ichiro coming to the plate Decision: Intentionally walk Ichiro Result: Chone Figgins works a walk to force in a run Gutierrez flies out to end the inning Working it out: Using the ZiPS rest of season projection for Ichiro, he had the following event break-downs and results: Out - 63.3%, no runs score / inning ends 1B - 25%, let's be nice and say two runs score 2B - 3.6%, two runs score 3B - 0.8%, two runs score HR - 1.0%, three runs score BB - 6.2%, no runs score / inning continues So that's about 0.62 expected runs allowed (chance of each event times the runs that would score if the event occurred), with a 63.3% chance of getting out of it. Now Figgins, with the bases loaded: Out - 63.3%, no runs score / inning ends 1B - 18.1%, two runs score 2B - 3.6%, three runs score 3B - 0.6%, three runs score HR - 0.6%, four runs score BB - 13.9%, one run scores That's 0.65 expected runs allowed, with the same 63.3% chance of getting out of the inning (they have identical .367 projected OBPs). I'm not looking at other factors, such as the following batters or the change in run expectancies based on things like a Figgins' single would not just drive in two runs (like an Ichiro single would), but would also result in two runners on base instead of one. Even just looking at the single at bat that Dave Trembley was - Ichiro vs. Figgins - it's really a wash at best. I don't care about the manager one way or another, but I'd fire Trembley just for being "scared" of Ichiro. I know he's ninja-like, but that's no excuse for a major league manager. Edit: It would have been really funny if he had walked Griffey in that situation. I would have fired Dave mid-game for that.