Projecting Tsuyoshi Wada
With newly acquired Japanese left-handed pitcher Tsuyoshi Wada likely being penciled into the Orioles' rotation for next year, it might not hurt to take a guess as to how he might do. Comparing NPB stats to Major League ones is tricky, but luckily Brian Cartwright (who does the Oliver projections) has looked into the issue:
"I started with a list of 33 Japanese pitchers who have come to MLB from 1995-2011. I’ll show their last 3 years in Japan, their projection, and their first 3 years in MLB... Last week I coded an adjustment for the new standardized ball in NPB in 2011... For a FIP estimate of a pitcher coming from NPB to MLB, increase HRs by 68%, increase BB by 11.6%, decrease SO by 9.6%."
Handy!
So here are Wada's stats for the last three years:
| Year | IP | HR | BB | K | "FIP" |
| 2009 | 84.1 | 13 | 24 | 87 | 3.99 |
| 2010 | 169.1 | 11 | 55 | 169 | 3.02 |
| 2011 | 184.2 | 7 | 40 | 168 | 2.52 |
The "FIP" uses the standard major league FIP formula, not adjusted year-to-year.
Adjusting for the new NPB ball in 2011 using Cartwright's Yu Darvish changes:
| Year | IP | HR | BB | K | "FIP" |
| 2009 | 84.1 | 13 | 24 | 87 | 3.99 |
| 2010 | 169.1 | 11 | 55 | 169 | 3.02 |
| 2011 | 184.2 | 11 | 44 | 153 | 3.05 |
So it looks like much of the 2011 "improvement" was a mirage due to the new ball, though he did walk (and K) fewer batters.
Adjusting using the NPB to MLB conversion:
| Year | IP | HR | BB | K | "FIP" |
| 2009 | 84.1 | 22 | 27 | 79 | 5.65 |
| 2010 | 169.1 | 18 | 61 | 153 | 3.90 |
| 2011 | 184.2 | 19 | 50 | 139 | 3.83 |
Those home runs in 2009... yikes. For '10-'11 these numbers would compare not too unfavorably to John Danks, Matt Garza, and Jonathon Niese (all have a K/9 within 0.5 points, BB/9 within 0.25 points, and HR/9 within 0.1 point of Wada's 7.4-2.8-0.9 for the two years). I'd wager that all three of those guys have better stuff than Wada does though.
A 3-2-1 weighting of more recent seasons would give Wada the following 2012 line:
| Year | IP | HR | BB | K | "FIP" |
| 2012 | 163 | 19 | 50 | 133 | 4.01 |
This needs to be regressed, but I'm not sure what* to regress it to... lefties with fastballs under 90 mph perhaps (for '10-'11, those with at least 200 IP total had an overall K/9 of 6.3, BB/9 of 2.8, and HR/9 of 0.9)?
* Normally it's league average, I think, but looking at a specific player I can throw some "scouting" in there maybe.
Doing so at 50% gives:
| Year | IP | HR | BB | K | "FIP" |
| 2012 | 163 | 18 | 50 | 123 | 4.03 |
Mostly it just decreased the K's a bit, but also the home runs a touch which kept the FIP about the same. Not regressing the HR would put the FIP at 4.14.
Lastly, there's some aging involved. A 5% decline in each category would leave:
| Year | IP | HR | BB | K | "FIP" |
| 2012 | 155 | 19 | 53 | 117 | 4.27 |
Which makes Wada pretty much Ervin Santana circa 2010 (pro-rated to 155 IP; 19 homers, 51 walks, 118 K's, 4.24 FIP). I'd be wary about such an optimistic projection (but it could happen!) - a 10% decline would instead give:
| Year | IP | HR | BB | K | "FIP" |
| 2012 | 147 | 20 | 55 | 111 | 4.5 |
That I'm a little more comfortable with; 6.8 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9. If he can pitch almost 150 innings at that level, that's still a good win and a half - enough to make his contract a small bargain (even taking into account further decline in 2013). If he manages to pitch to the penultimate line, it's more like 2 wins, and Wada will earn his salary twice over.
It'll be interesting to see how well Wada transitions to the big leagues, but it looks like Dan Duquette might have made a nice little move here.
