Orioles Sign Lefty Wei-Yin Chen
The Orioles have added some depth to their rotation by bringing back left-handed pitcher Bruce Chen! Wait, no... that's left-handed pitcher Wei-Yin Chen, coming over from Japan (though he is Taiwanese - woops) as Dan Duquette continues investing in the international market.
Chen's only 26 years old will get three years and $12 M, which seems like a fine deal. His career numbers in the NPB include a 7.1 K/9 (though it was down to 5.1 last year, which is mildly concerning), a 2.2 BB/9, and an 0.7 HR/9. Chen is supposed to be a harder thrower than Tsuyoshi Wada, coming in in the low 90s with his fastball (complemented with a slider - potentially plus, according to Keith Law). Using the same kinds of translations as with Wada:
Here are Chen's last three years:
| Year | IP | HR | BB | K | "FIP" |
| 2009 | 164 | 10 | 40 | 146 | 2.94 |
| 2010 | 188 | 21 | 49 | 153 | 3.81 |
| 2011 | 164.2 | 9 | 31 | 94 | 3.33 |
Adjusting the last year for the new NPB ball:
| Year | IP | HR | BB | K | "FIP" |
| 2009 | 164 | 10 | 40 | 146 | 2.94 |
| 2010 | 188 | 21 | 49 | 153 | 3.81 |
| 2011 | 164.2 | 14 | 34 | 86 | 3.90 |
Translating to MLB:
| Year | IP | HR | BB | K | "FIP" |
| 2009 | 164 | 17 | 45 | 132 | 3.74 |
| 2010 | 188 | 35 | 55 | 138 | 5.04 |
| 2011 | 164.2 | 24 | 38 | 77 | 4.83 |
Using a 3-2-1 weighting for more recent years:
| Year | IP | HR | BB | K | "FIP" |
| 2012 | 172.1 | 26 | 45 | 107 | 4.73 |
And then regressing 50% to the mean for the rates:
| Year | IP | HR | BB | K | "FIP" |
| 2012 | 172.1 | 23 | 50 | 118 | 4.42 |
A 4.50 FIP in even 120 IP for the first year, with some decline in years two and three, still would leave the contract "fair" the O's. $4 M isn't a crazy amount to play for a quality reliever (thought three years might be excessive), which seems like a reasonable expectation - and given that Chen is left-handed, I imagine that unless he crashes and burns some team would be interested in maybe trading for him.
It's a nice low-risk, medium reward move, and a much preferred alternative to giving multiple years to, say, Joe Saunders (who is probably a surer bet for a 4.50 FIP but doesn't have the potential up-side). The O's starting rotation now has some serious depth of average ot below arms; Guthrie, Britton, Arrieta, Chen, Wada, Tillman, Matusz, Simon, Eveland, Bergesen. The O's should have their starters go 3-4 innings and then bringing in another "starter" for 3-4 more each game! Thinking outside the box! Add in Berken and Jim Johnson to close things out - hey, it could work (I'd pay $5 to see them try this for two weeks, maybe after they're clearing out of contention just to keep people from freaking out as much).
