The Good:

• Chris Tillman looked good at the start of his outing, and didn't have things turn south unlike last time. Final line; 7 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 HR.
• Jim Johnson looked great out of the pen, pitching a perfect 8th with 2 K's.
• Adam Jones singled and homered (his 20th, setting a new career high).

The Bad:

• The O's didn't have a baserunner until Nolan Reimold's 6th inning single. It looked like it could be a historically bad night there for a while.

The Final:

Heck of a turnaround from the early innings to the later ones, as the O's get their winning percentage back up to .400.

Not directly game related, but Zach Britton went on the DL with a strained left shoulder and Cesar Izturis is back. Rebuilding is going just smashingly.

The Good:

• Adam Jones hit his 19th home run of the year - making it three straight seasons with 19 (exactly, in 2009 and 2010 - hopefully he surpasses it this year).
• Nick Markakis had the type of game I'd like to see more often - single, double, and a walk.
• Troy Patton had three solid inning in relief, giving up a run one two hits and a walk, K'ing one. Seems like he has a good chance of solidifying a place out of the pen for 2012.

The Bad:

• Tommy Hunter did not have an especially auspicious debut as an O's starter; 4 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 0 BB, 1 K. He did average almost 92 mph with his four-seamer though, which is nice. Still not too different from expected - good control (0 BB), but doesn't miss bats (1 K, and only 2 whiffs in ~43 swings).

The Final:

O's lose again, and are a major league worst 8-22 over their last 30 games.

My post at MASN's Orioles Buzz this week lays out some projections for new Birds Tommy Hunter (~4.50 ERA, solid #4/5 starter) and Chris Davis (.258/.310/.446, mediocre first-baseman). Check it out here.

The Good:

• Alfredo Simon continued being Shutdown Sauce out of the starting rotation (dropped his FIP from 3.21 to ~3.14). He averaged 96 with his fastball, and changed speeds with the splitter (86 mph) and slider (79 mph). Final line; 7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 3 K.
• JJ Hardy singled and doubled, and drew a walk.
• Nick Markakis singled and walked twice - the first time since the middle of June that he's worked a pair of walks in a game.
• Mark Reynolds also singled and doubled, but he added a monster three-run home run.
• Chris Davis singled and hit his first home run in an O's uniform; opposite-field no less.

The Bad:

• Not a great night for the left-fielders, as Nolan Reimold went 0-3 with 3 K's and Felix Pie struck out in his only PA.

The Final:

The Orioles scored runs! And pitched well! And won!

First off, because people seem not to follow the distinction, I want to say that the Orioles got a fair amount of value for Koji Uehara. Koji is unlikely to provide much more than $2 M in excess value to the team, assuming his option for 2012 kicks in. Even if Chris Davis never becomes more than a Four-A player, Tommy Hunter being cheap and non-terrible should give the O's more than $2 M in excess value. This is a fine trade from that perspective. The issue was the kind of return. Instead of prospects, the Orioles picked up younger but already close to their prime players (assuming 27 as peak age). There isn't a whole lot to dream on. Davis might hit 35 home runs next year, but he's unlikely to be even an average first-baseman overall given his plate discipline number (lots of K's, not a ton of walks). It's nice that the O's took a chance on a guy who has some skills but was currently blocked from getting some time in the majors, but that's the kind of pick-up they should go for on the cheap - not with their best trade chip. For Hunter, being a good #4 starter is about as good as it'll get. The worst part may be the repeated suggestions by the club that Davis and Hunter are building blocks and important pieces of the team's future - they're either lying or somewhat delusional.

The trade seems like the Orioles are foregoing improving their chances to win a division title in 2014 in return for not sucking quite so much as they end up in fifth place in the AL East in 2012-2013*. Given that, it seems more in line with the Vlad signing, which was intended to improve the team in 2011 at the expense of giving Nolan Reimold a full season of playing time - a focus on making the present less bad instead of trying to make the future good. It might be a hint that Andy MacPhail is on the way out after this season and that Buck Showalter had a hand in the trade, given that you'd expect a GM to think longer term while the manager wants to win right now. And just because rebuilding hasn't worked before isn't a reason not to try it again. Having a team with a few average-ish players and then everyone else being mediocre is surely not a recipe for success - better to take the risk and hope to win 90 one day (with the down side of losing 100) then to make sure you get the 75 (but max out at 80).

* The Red Sox and Yankees aren't falling off a map so soon, the Rays still have a lot of talent and a good farm system, and the Jays have improved by leaps and bounds as an organization, have perhaps baseball's best player (Jose Bautista), and a very good farm system as well.

So what should the Orioles have done with Koji? Trade him to the Rangers, but for prospects. When people asked me if I thought the O's could have really gotten prospects back for a 36 year-old reliever (as if Koji's age really matters - it's not like Texas is looking to sign him to a 5 year extension), I said I thought a solid B and a C+ with some upside would have been reasonable. Today the Padres ended up dealing reliever Mike Adams to the Rangers for pitching prospects Robbie Erlin and Joe Wieland.

Mike Adams: for 2010-11: 2.21 FIP, 2.95 xFIP; making ~$4.8 through 2012
Koji Uehara: for 2010-11: 2.46 FIP, 2.50 xFIP; making ~$5.2 through 2012

These are very comparable relievers.

Robbie Erlin was a top 100 prospect in baseball coming into the season, rated as a B+ by Minor League Ball. He's a lefty with a 123 to 12 strike-out to walk ratio in the minors this year (High-A and Double-A).

Joe Wieland was a C+ prospect going into the season, and is likely even more highly thought of now. He has a 132 to 15 strike-out to walk ratio in the minors this year (High-A and Double-A).

That would have been a very nice return for Koji. It goes with the whole "grow the arms" thing. Sure it's possible that neither player will ever make it to the majors, but is it really better to lock in #4/5 starter production than to take a chance on a guy (two, really) who has a chance of leading the rotation* one day? I'd obviously say no, but the Orioles apparently said yes. And that's a shame.

* Well, leading this rotation. I don't think either are really supposed to be #1 starters.

If this portends the direction of this organization - setting their number one goal as not being the worst team in baseball - then it's going to be tougher to cheer* for the team. There has to be some hope that we'll see the light at the end of the tunnel eventually, but I'm not feeling that. The farm system isn't good, there's not much going on in the international scene, the player development seems to have some problems**, and yet the front office is focusing on making the product on the field right now slightly less embarrassing. Which is a good sub goal, but how's that working out a day after the Yankees outscored the O's 25-6?

* I still will, of course, but it's certainly disheartening.

** I guess given that, it doesn't even matter if the O's trade for prospects if they're going to mess them up anyway.

Another trade, coming on the heels of the O's double-header shellacking at the hands of the Yankees (and to think, the day started out so well with Chris Tillman's nice first inning). The Orioles sent Derrek Lee to the Pirates for 23 year-old first-baseman Aaron Baker. Lee's contract is more than his production is worth, so just getting rid of him is more or less a slight win (even with the money the O's are sending along). Being able to add a "prospect" in the deal is a bonus, and I'm happy that someone was even willing to take him (thanks goes to the Cubs for deciding to hold on to Carlos Pena for some reason).

Baker is hitting .288/.355/.476 in High A-Ball this year, and seems to be a more or less middling hitter given his age and position. No monster holes in his game, but he seems a little below average at everything he does with the bat - he walks, but not a lot; K's a fair amount but not a ton; has some pop, but not a tremendous amount. If he was, say, 20, one could dream on him a bit. At 23 it's pretty unlikely he'll do anything significant at the big league level.

So essentially this was the Orioles helping out the Pirates a bit while opening up a spot for Chris David to play for the rest of the season, which is fine.

I'm happy that Andy MacPhail actually decided to trade Koji Uehara, but this isn't the type of deal I was hoping for. The reliever is going to Texas, in return for first-baseman Chris Davis and pitcher Tommy Hunter.

Tommy Hunter is a 25 year-old right-hander with over 50 major league games under his belt. He doesn't strike out many batters (5.1 K/9) and is a flyball pitcher which leaves him prone to giving up the longball (1.3 HR/9), but at least he has solid control (2.5 BB/9). His 4.50 career xFIP pretty much tells the story. He's a #4/5 starter type, but at least he's cheap and under team control for a while.

Chris Davis is a 25 year-old left-handed swinger who's basically Mark Reynolds (who now won't be moving to first-base) without the walks. In almost 1,000 career plate appearances he's hitting .248/.300/.454. I guess there's a chance he may develop into a below average first-baseman (as opposed to a replacement level player). At least he's cheap and under team control for a while.

If looking at the excess value, I think the O's may have come out a bit ahead (even kicking in $2 M to help pay for Koji's contract). Still, comparing this deal to the universe of possible deals I'm extremely disappointed. This seems like the Orioles are extending the Quest for .500 into 2012, looking to add mediocre roster pieces instead of trying to pick up some prospects who have a chance to meaningfully contribute to the next 90 win Orioles team (which Hunter and David don't). If having these cheaper players means the team will, say, invest into the international market instead of signing comparable veterans for next year, I guess that's OK. But I doubt it.

Speaking as a fan, I'm going to miss Koji and the return doesn't compensate for that one bit.