The Orioles get a nice come from behind win yesterday (though it shouldn't have been that way in the first place) and have the opportunity for a sweet against the Red Sox today (though it's still a win, can't believe I'm complaining).  They face Jon Lester and a win won't come easily.

Red Sox:

	Batting	Fielding	fWAR
Jacoby Ellsbury	.244/.311/.451	-1	0.3
Dustin Pedroia	.271/.394/.388	3	1.0
Kevin Youkilis	.214/.378/.500	-1	0.7
Adrian Gonzalez	.290/.359/.430	4	0.8
David Ortiz	.274/.393/.425	0	0.4
J.D. Drew	.283/.394/.400	3	0.7
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	.186/.255/.233	-1	-0.2
Carl Crawford	.156/.200/.222	-2	-1.0
Marco Scutaro	.204/.304/.245	1	0.1

A solid lineup that has its strong spots and its weak spots.  Ellsbury does a great job in the leadoff spot, and all the way through J.D. Drew the Red Sox are solid.  But after that, their final three are shaky.  Saltalamacchia hasn't lived up to his former top prospect status yet, and Crawford is not off to the start the Red Sox asked for at all.

Jon Lester:

ERA	FIP	xFIP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	fWAR
2.59	3.61	3.23	8.6	3.2	59.2%	0.6

Lester has been very good this season, as expected.  Very good strikeout rate, the O's are going to have his pitch count today if they want to get on base (need more than the amount of walks yesterday... won't even mention how many it was).  Nice high GB%, and though his HR/FB% is high, all those homers came in his first start in Texas.  However, if the O's can get it up, they might be able to get some home runs.

Derrek Lee was signed this off-season to play first-base and be a veteran run producer in the middle of the line-up. I think a lot of people have the order there mixed up (the team did need a first-baseman, and if Lee bounced back to hit like he did in 2009, that would be a bonus). The 35 year-old has been put into the #3 spot in the line-up though, and so his lack of production thus far has some fans comparing him to a certain free agent mistake from the previous year. That isn't quite right.

First off, while Lee isn't hitting well (.211/.294/.276 going into yesterday's game), his plate discipline numbers are right where you'd expect them to be with a 10.6% walk rate and a 22.4% strike-out rate (I had him projected at 10.8% and 23%). The main issues are (1) his low batting average on balls in play keeping all his numbers down, and (2) his lack of power.

(1) His BABIP of .259 is over 60 points below his career average, and would easily be a career low. Considering the fact the FanGraphs has his line-drive rate at a robust 22%, and that he hasn't yet hit a pop-up (which is almost a certain out, and drags the BABIP down), I'd have to say this is largely just bad luck. Give Lee a .300 BABIP - still below his career .321 - and his OBP moves up to .322 (which would be above league, average at this point).

(2) Lee has only one home run, and his home run per flyball rate is at 4.2%. There's no way his power took such a nose-dive (even last year it was at 12.1%) - he's hit some longer flyballs (including a couple to the warning track last night), but the results aren't there yet.

Someone asked about Lee's bat speed potentially being gone; I'm not a scout, but the PitchFX perhaps shows his decreasing ability to connect well with the fastball. Here's what Lee's done when  swinging at the four-seamer the last few years:

	Whiff%	Foul%	In Play%
2008	14.3%	41.5%	44.2%
2009	14.3%	44.6%	41.0%
2010	14.7%	50.5%	34.8%
2011	12.4%	64.0%	23.3%

So he's actually swinging and missing the pitch less this year than he has been, but he's tending to foul it off instead of putting it in play. Circumstantial evidence maybe, but the fact that he's been able to catch up enough to at least get wood on the ball makes me slightly less worried (though perhaps I'm focusing on the wrong thing - who knows).

In conclusion, Derrek Lee might not be an ideal middle of the order hitter in a "good" line-up, but I think he'll actually produce sooner or later this year. And at least he can field at first-base.

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Stats: K% & BB%, BABIP, HR/FB%

The Good:

• So, this Zach Britton kid is pretty good. He used his two-seamer quite a bit (almost completely eschewing the slider), and was able to rack up a lot of groundballs. Final line; 6 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 2 K.
• Jim Johnson pitched a perfect 7th, striking out a couple (on eight total pitches, no less). His 8th inning wasn't as clean, as he gave up a double. But he K'ed two more - seems solid against the heart of the Sox order. Not saying JJ's better than Kevin Gregg. But he's significantly worse.
• Vlad Guerrero went 3-4; all singles, but all hit fairly hard. Still no walks though. Chances he ends April without one? 70%? Higher? Dates picked for the "When Will Vlad Walk" pool on twitter ranged from April 30th to mid May to June to never (if we're not counting IBB).
• Luke Scott singled, doubled, and drew a walk.

The Bad:

• Only four runs scored on 12 hits (10 singles) and 3 walks.

The Final:

The pitching was solid, and just enough hits fell in. Like the first week of the season. Maybe it'll last a little longer this time.

I didn't have a great deal of faith in Jake Arrieta coming into the season, after he barely got his K/BB ratio above 1 last year. Arrieta showed some quality pitches, but his control was spotty and that didn't allow him to take full advantage of them. So far in 2011, he's taken a step forward in that area, and the results have been positive.

Though Arrieta's ERA is actually higher this year (4.94 to 4.66 in 2010), his FIP (4.00) is three-quarters of a run better and his xFIP (4.02) is over a full run better. A 3.6 BB/9 rate isn't fantastic, but it's certainly serviceable. He's throwing the ball in the strike-zone more often, and he's getting ahead in the count much more often; 0-1 versus 1-0 on batters 56% of the time as opposed to last year's 48% of the time.

Arrieta's also missing more bats than he did last year. A 4.7 K/9 didn't really square with his stuff, while the 7.6 K/9 he's posted thus far makes more sense*. While he's altered his usage patterns slightly - more fastballs, fewer change-ups, and a switch from the curve to the slider as his primary breaking-pitch (though he's still throwing both) - his whiff rates are up across the board:

	Fastball	Sinker	Slider	Curve	Change
2010	10%	11%	23%	19%	8%
2011	15%	15%	26%	23%	14%

That's a great sign, and I still think there's some room for growth - especially with the breaking-balls.

* Though maybe it's a touch higher than it "should" be, given that he's still getting swinging strikes at a below average rate. Part of the increased K's is probably his ability to get batters to two strike (due to improved control?) - 53% of batters have gone to a two-strike count against Arrieta this year (49% is the league average), compared to 43% last year.

So while I'm not quite prepared to predict a 4.00 ERA going forward or to crown Arrieta as a future ace, the 5.00 ERA I had for him before the season is looking a little high. I would like to see him get some more groundballs with this sinker - he's been a flyball pitcher thus far and has pitched up in the zone not infrequently - but I can't say I'm not very pleasantly surprised with what I've seen thus far.

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Stats: ERA, FIP, xFIP, K/9 & BB/9, GB%, PitchFX

When the Orioles traded for Mark Reynolds this off-season, fans speculated that he could hit upwards of 40 home runs in Baltimore. I had him at 34. At this point, he's not looking too likely to break the 30 barrier, with only 2 longballs in his first 76 plate appearances. What's going on?

Reynolds is hitting the ball in the air quite a bit (as usual), but it's not leaving the yard. His home run per flyball rate is 8.7%, compared to his career 20.1%. And it's not quite a matter of a ton of warning-track balls getting caught; check out his spray chart:



He's pulled exactly one ball with some distance (you can see it at the 364 marker). And that's not a good way to hit a lot of home runs. Where's the authority?

Well, in the simplest words possible: yesterday was a game to forget about, quickly.  A 15-3 rout by the Yankees was not what most fans were looking forward to.  Maybe the O's can bounce back today and salvage a game in this rain-shortened series (if not, they'll start 0-4 to the Yanks).  Right now, it's back to the cellar for the Orioles.

Yankees:

	Batting	Fielding	fWAR
Derek Jeter	.221/.289/.235	0	-0.2
Curtis Granderson	.267/.313/.650	4	1.1
Mark Teixeira	.279/.408/.656	1	1.0
Alex Rodriguez	.370/.483/.826	0	1.2
Robinson Cano	.324/.329/.577	-1	0.6
Nick Swisher	.254/.365/.288	1	0.2
Jorge Posada	.164/.270/.491	0	0.1
Russell Martin	.333/.410/.722	0	1.2
Brett Gardner	.154/.214/.288	0	-0.4

Well, after yesterday, the Yankees showed that they can get run production from anywhere in this strong lineup.  A-Rod had a grand slam and 6 RBI, Russell Martin had 2 home runs and 4 RBI.  Even Posda, whose average is down considerably, has been hitting well.  Extremely sound lineup from one to nine.

Freddy Garcia:

ERA	FIP	xFIP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	fWAR
1.29	3.33	4.19	2.6	2.6	52.4%	0.1

Garcia has been money since coming to the Yankees this offseason.  Granted, he doesn't strike out many batters at all, and his K:BB ratio suffers because of this, but I'll give you one stat so far this year: he has given up 0 home runs so far.  Zero.  That's very impressive, especially since he pitches in Yankee Stadium.  And he has a good GB%.  Tough to beat Freddy when most of the hits are on the ground or short fly balls.



The graph truly shows why he strikes out so few per nine innings.  With his fastball only topping out at an average of 86, overpowering might be the last word I would use.  However, he uses a nice mix of his pitches to fool batters and get plenty of ground balls and weak fly balls.  As I've been saying all year, the O's really need to work the count today and get on base any way possible.

Orioles:

	Batting	Fielding	fWAR
Brian Roberts	.278/.313/.456	-1	0.3
Nick Markakis	.208/.284/.319	-2	-0.3
Derrek Lee	.225/.313/.296	0	-0.1
Vladimir Guerrero	.266/.266/.405	0	-0.1
Luke Scott	.190/.271/.381	2	0.1
Adam Jones	.224/.243/.418	1	0.3
Mark Reynolds	.177/.268/.306	-3	-0.4
Matt Wieters	.255/.328/.491	0	0.5
Cesar Izturis	.235/.316/.235	3	0.3

A struggling offensive team, the O's are really slipping offensively.  Reynolds (so far) isn't giving the power production that everyone was hoping for (though he is striking out 10% less than last year).  Need some run production to help out the pitching today.

Jake Arrieta:

ERA	FIP	xFIP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	fWAR
5.08	4.08	4.39	5.91	3.38	42.6%	0.3

Arrieta made his MLB debut against the Yankees last year and shined.  He had a good outing last week against the Twins, but that was a rather depleted lineup.  He'll have his hands full against a very strong Yankees lineup.  Needs to keep the ball down and can't give up the big fly like the Orioles staff did yesterday.

Arrieta has good swing-and-miss stuff.  Fastball tops out around 93 MPH, he just can't leave it up in the zone too much.  Nice 92 MPH sinker and a good difference in velocities between his fastball and curve.  Really is going to need to get some K's instead of the long ball today.  Also needs to stay away from the walks; he'll get into plenty of trouble if he gives out a few free passes.

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Stats: UZR, WAR, ERA, FIP, xFIP, K/9 & BB/9, GB%, PitchFX

The O's offense didn't show up to the Yard on Thursday, as the O's could muster only one run in the loss to the Twins.  Though Scott Baker was much of the reason the offense could muster nothing, it wasn't the whole reason.  They have no easier task today, going up against C.C. Sabathia.

Yankees:

	Batting	Fielding	fWAR
Derek Jeter	.219/.282/.234	0	-0.2
Curtis Granderson	.273/.322/.691	4	1.2
Mark Teixeira	.259/.380/.638	1	0.9
Alex Rodriguez	.366/.491/.780	0	1.0
Robinson Cano	.303/.309/.576	-1	0.5
Nick Swisher	.273/.377/.309	1	0.3
Jorge Posada	.160/.276/.460	0	0.0
Russell Martin	.314/.375/.608	0	0.9
Brett Gardner	.128/.196/.191	0	-0.5

Not many holes in "baseball's most expensive lineup," as you can see.  Say for MAYBE Jeter and Gardner (who really isn't off to a good start hitting wise), the Yankees have been hitting the ball very well.  The 3-4-5 hitters are very scary, with three possible yearly MVP candidates.

C.C. Sabathia:

ERA	FIP	xFIP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	fWAR
2.52	2.89	3.40	8.3	3.2	39.2%	0.7

Sabathia comes in with very good numbers (even after giving up 4 runs in 6.1 IP in his last outing).  He knows how to punch batters out, striking out an impressive 8 per 9 IP.  The 3 BB/9 doesn't seem so bad when he strikes out that many.  He traded K's for groundballs last year, but has reversed that somewhat in the early going in 2011.



Sabathia has a nasty slider to complement that 93 MPH fastball.  His change-up is his big swing-and-miss pitch though, dropping off the table at around 86 MPH.  Tough to beat that.

Orioles:

	Batting	Fielding	fWAR
Brian Roberts	.280/.316/.467	-1	0.3
Nick Markakis	.203/.273/.319	-2	-0.3
Derrek Lee	.209/.303/.284	0	-0.2
Vladimir Guerrero	.280/.280/.427	0	0.0
Adam Jones	.222/.242/.381	1	0.2
Mark Reynolds	.186/.269/.322	-3	-0.4
Matt Wieters	.269/.345/.519	0	0.6
Jake Fox	.143/.250/.500	0	0.1
Robert Andino	.308/.379/.308	2	0.3

Again, the O's just can't seem to draw walks when they play.  They need to do this especially today against Sabathia.  Really need to work the count against him because Sabathia can handle big pitch counts late in games.  I'd really prefer for him to not still be throwing in the 7th or 8th inning.  To do that, the O's need to foul pitches off, draw some walks, and put solid wood on the ball.  Easier said than done though for the O's.

Brad Bergesen:

ERA	FIP	xFIP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	fWAR
3.38	6.20	4.18	5.9	1.7	40.0%	-0.1

Bergesen's been on the short end of the stick this year, with a solid ERA but an 0-2 record.  No run support (go figure) in his two decisions this year.  His K:BB ratio is very good, but Bergy has been susceptible to giving up the long ball (20 % of his FB leave the yard, and gives up 2.5 home runs per game.. ouch). Those home run figures will come down, but he's still going to need to keep the ball on the ground more going forward. He needs to keep the ball low against this very powerful lineup or we'll be seeing the ball flying out of the park often - Bergesen isn't really meant to be a flyball pitcher.

 
 

Not very overpowering stuff, nor big swing-and-miss stuff.  He needs to focus on locating his pitches and keeping his walk count down.  I think he'd also appreciate some offensive production (from the O's).

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Stats: UZR, WAR, ERA, FIP, xFIP, K/9 & BB/9, GB%, PitchFX