Game 3: Orioles 5, Rays 1

Written by Daniel Moroz on .


The Good:
  • Zach Britton looked very good. His production looks like it'll go more or less as I expected - if he throws strikes and keeps the ball down his stuff will carry him, but if his control wavers he'll be merely OK at best. As for his stuff, I was way off if you look at the pitchfx from the game. I was under the impression that Britton threw a sinker*, but it appears that it's more of a tailing two-seamer. Had a little more velocity on it too, and generated some swings and misses (20% whiff rate on what I'd call four-seamers, and 25% on two-seamers). He reallied heavily on the heater, but I was very impressed with his secondary pitches (slider and change-up). The former was mostly taken for a ball, but on the occasions that it was swung at he had a 75% whiff rate. The latter was used more sparingly, but on the occasions that it was swung at he had a 78% whiff rate. If Britton can keep missing bats at close to this rate, his perceived ceiling will probably need to be raised, in my opinion (yeah, yeah, small sample size). Final line; 6 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 6 K.
* Apparently, Britton didn't really use his sinker. That explains a lot**. Now I'm really looking forward to his next start, to see what his main pitch is actually like. See? This is why I didn't think he'd get sent down.
** Or the PitchFX calibration was off, since it didn't have any of Britton's sliders as dropping much below the 0 line even though it looked like some of them might have had some break. In that case his two-seamer - which it does look like he threw (there kinda looks like two distinct fastball blobs) - would have had decent sink (and still a lot of tail).
  • Jason Berken had a nice first appearance of 2011, striking out the side in his one inning of work. I said after his first terrible year as a starter that his numbers didn't correspond to his stuff, which was much more average-ish than bad. He moved to the pen and has been a solid reliever, which you'd expect from an OK starter.
  • JJ Hardy man. Dude has swung at like one first-pitch all year. He's working the count, getting some hits. Ripped a two-run double down the third-base line to give the O's some insurance runs after they took a 7th inning lead.
  • Mark Reynolds drove in two runs with a pair of doubles, and didn't even strike out. Also made a pretty good diving play at third early in the game (and then let a ball through the wickets in the ninth).
  • Nick Markakis and Matt Wieters each added a couple of hits as well. One of Wieters' was a blooper, but he did also easily throw out BJ Upton trying to steal third-base.
  • Adam Jones also had two base-knocks, and managed to keep from swinging at a couple pitches three feet out of the strike-zone.
The Bad:
  • There were intermittent stretches of poor patience from some O's hitter. Vlad especially looked bad chasing pitches in K'ing (twice) and also grounding into a double play (where he was out at first by a good 10 feet if not more). He better hit a home run on a pitch at his shoe-tops soon, or watching him at the plate will get mighty tiring.
  • With the O's up 4-1 in the top of the ninth, Buck had their $6 M closer Kevin Gregg warming. With a 5-1 lead, Buck brought in Josh Rupe (career 5.00 ERA, 1.2 K/BB) to pitch. Now Buck has a whole commercial where he talks about how he doesn't believe in the save rule, so I know he couldn't have been going by that. But it still seems a little odd.
The Final:

What an exciting start. Britton looked great, and the O's offense woke up just in time to get him his first major league win. The O's sweep has them coming home 3-0, and even if it was largely a product of fortunate BABIP in run prevention and timely (clutch!) hitting on offense, I'll certainly take it. Not only that, but the Orioles also have sole possession of first place in the AL East. I believe this is the latest in the season that has happened since 2005.

Game 3: Orioles at Rays

Written by Daniel Moroz on .


I'm still not happy that Zach Britton is making this start, but that doesn't stop me from being really excited to actually see him pitch. I've been a big fan for a while, listing him as the O's top prospect when the consensus was still that he was below the likes of Josh Bell and Brandon Erbe.

Rays:


Batting Fielding fWAR
B.J. Upton .429/.429/.571 0 0.1
Elliot Johnson .000/.500/.000 0 0.0
Ben Zobrist .286/.444/.714 0 0.2
Manny Ramirez .125/.125/.125 0 -0.1
Kelly Shoppach .333/.500/.333 0 0.0
Sean Rodriguez .000/.000/.000 0 0.0
Dan Johnson .143/.143/.286 0 -0.1
Matt Joyce .000/.286/.000 0 -0.1
Sam Fuld .000/.000/.000 0 0.0

Longoria being out probably helps Britton, as does the fact that Joe Maddon can't completely stack the Rays line-up with righties.

Wade Davis (2010):

ERA FIP xFIP K/9 BB/9 GB% fWAR
4.07 4.79 4.61 6.1 3.3 39.2% 0.8

Davis' stuff is good enough that his ERA this year should look a little more like last year's, as opposed to his FIP or xFIP.



Davis is mostly going to come after the O's with fastballs and breaking-balls, which means that if the Baltimore batters can keep themselves from falling behind in the count too much they may be able to do some damage (though Davis' fastballs aren't meatballs by any stretch).

Orioles:


Batting Fielding fWAR
Brian Roberts .375/.375/1.000 0 0.2
Nick Markakis .167/.250/.167 0 -0.1
Derrek Lee .250/.250/.250 0 -0.1
Vladimir Guerrero .250/.250/.250 0 -0.1
Matt Wieters .167/.167/.167 0 0.0
Adam Jones .000/.000/.000 0 -0.2
Mark Reynolds .143/.143/.143 0 -0.1
Felix Pie .000/.000/.000 0 0.0
J.J. Hardy .250/.500/.500 0 0.1

WIth Luke Scott out for at least a couple days with a groin inury, Felix Pie takes over in left-field. Moving Wieters up a few spots in the line-up is interesting.

Zach Britton (2010, minors):

ERA FIP xFIP K/9 BB/9 GB% fWAR
2.70 ~3.38 ~3.97 7.3 3.0 64.0% N/A

Britton had a very good year in the minors, but his strike-out and groundball rates are likely to fall in the majors, and his walk rate will probably go up. If he pounds the bottom of the strike-zone he'll be able to get away with not missing a ton of bats right away though.

Here's what I expect to see from Britton (or at least something not hugely different):



Sinking fastball, with some harder four-seamers mixed in. An OK change-up, and a relatively sharp slider. The velocities of the off-speed pitches are wild guesses - well, all of it is a wild guess, but those aspects more so. We'll see what happens.
Stats: UZR, WAR, ERA, FIP, xFIP, K/9 & BB/9, GB%, HR/FB%, BABIP, PitchFX

Game 2: Orioles 3, Rays 1

Written by Daniel Moroz on .


The Good:
  • Chris Tillman was smiled upon by the BABIP gods in this one. He pitched up in the strike-zone a lot* and didn't have the best control, but every ball in play was converted into an out. Because he threw 101 pitches, Tillman was taken out after six innings despite having a no-no going. But hey, sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. It looks like he mixed in at least a few distinct cutters, which is something to keep an eye on going forward. Final line; 6 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 5 K.
* He did get some swings and misses on that high fastball, but living up there are 88-91 is not going to go so well in the long run. Floor for HR/9 is probably 1.2 with that style.
  • Brian Roberts went 2-4 and delivered the O's big blow of the game - a three-run homer in the top of the eighth inning.
The Bad:
  • The bullpen was hit or miss; 3 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 4 BB, 2 K. Mike Gonzalez especially was tough to watch (flashbacks to last year), coming out with a three-run lead and walking the first two hitters he faced. Luckily Koji was able to bail him out (fireman!). Much like Nick Markakis bailed out Kevin Gregg with a great jumping catch at the wall to end the game with a couple runners aboard.
  • Not much offense overall, with just 6 hits and 2 walks (another one from Hardy!) to 9 K's.
The Final:

I told a friend during the latter innings (while it was still 0-0) that this is the kind of game an 82 win Orioles team would win even though they didn't really deserve to. A minute later Roberts homered. Then the pen bent but didn't break. I'll certainly take it though. Day two, and the Orioles are still undefeated and in first place.

Game 2: Orioles at Rays

Written by Daniel Moroz on .


With Brian Matusz going on the DL (out 3-6 weeks) with an intercostal strain (rib cage / back), Chris Tillman's start was moved up a day and Zach Britton will take the latter's spot on Sunday. That, I think, is a bad move. In the Quest for .500 (!), the team is make a short-sighted decision. Britton over, say, Rick VandenHurk is maybe a half-win over the time that Matusz is out. Maybe. In return, the O's are potentially giving up an entire year* of team control over Britton. Sure I'll be excited to see him, but this is the kind of (process) thing that concerned me with the signing of Vlad and Gregg. The team seems like they're valuing incremental improvements in 2011 way more highly than they should - there's no practical difference between 77 wins and 78 wins, but they're acting like they're moving from 92 to 93 wins (which is surely very valuable). This news really soured a great Opening Day.

* Yes, if Britton gets sent back down and spends a month in the minors they can still get that year. I have a hard time expecting them to do that though, especially since I think Britton is at least as good as Chris Tillman right now, for example. If he comes up and out-pitches Tillman or whoever, it'll be hard to justify sending him down. Harder than it is to justify keeping him down now (Britton had a good Spring, but he also only has 66 innings in Triple-A).

Anyway...

Rays:


Batting Fielding fWAR
Ben Zobrist .500/.500/1.250 0 0.2
Johnny Damon .000/.000/.000 0 -0.1
Evan Longoria .000/.000/.000 0 -0.1
Manny Ramirez .000/.000/.000 0 -0.1
Dan Johnson .333/.333/.667 0 0.0
B.J. Upton .333/.333/.667 0 0.0
Matt Joyce .000/.000/.000 0 -0.1
Kelly Shoppach #N/A #N/A #N/A
Reid Brignac .000/0.333/.000 0 0

For some reason, the image I get when looking at this line-up is of Manny Ramirez destroying a curveball and slowly ambling out of the batter's box. Having the righty Shoppach in there at catcher over the lefty Jaso seems a bit odd, but it might have something to do with Chris Tillman's best pitches being his curve and change. But Joyce and Johnson are still playing. Not sure.

James Shields (2010):

ERA FIP xFIP K/9 BB/9 GB% fWAR
5.18 4.24 3.55 8.3 2.3 41.3% 2.2

Shields' ERA was ugly, but his peripherals were excellent. Guess that's what happens with a .341 BABIP and a 13.8% HR/FB rate.



I don't completely trust the pitch classifications here, but I'm going with them anyway. In any case, Shields has quite an assortment of pitches, with the change-up being his signature offering. If Shields is hitting his spots then he's going to be tough for the O's to handle.

Orioles:


Batting Fielding fWAR
Brian Roberts .250/.250/.750 0 0.0
Nick Markakis .333/.250/.333 0 0.0
Derrek Lee .000/.000/.000 0 -0.1
Vladimir Guerrero .250/.250/.250 0 0.0
Luke Scott .000/.000/.000 0 -0.1
Adam Jones .000/.000/.000 0 -0.1
Mark Reynolds .000/.000/.000 0 -0.1
Matt Wieters .333/.333/.333 0 0.0
J.J. Hardy .500/.667/1.000 0 0.1

Jones and Scott flip-flop against the right-handed twirler.

Chris Tillman (2010):

ERA FIP xFIP K/9 BB/9 GB% fWAR
5.87 5.89 5.10 5.2 5.2 42.7% -0.2

I'm not quite all the way to no longer thinking Tillman can be a major league pitcher, but my confidence in him has tumbled severely in the last year and a half.



Tillman is more or less a three pitch pitcher, with a high riding (but relatively straight) 90 mph fastball, a big overhand curve, and a surprisingly effective change-up. His lack of control makes the off-speed stuff not play as well, considering his repertoire resembles that of a veteran more than a young flame-thrower.
Stats: UZR, WAR, ERA, FIP, xFIP, K/9 & BB/9, GB%, HR/FB%, BABIP, PitchFX

Opening Day: Orioles 4, Rays 1

Written by Daniel Moroz on .


The Good:
  • Jeremy Guthrie was absolutely dealing, using all of his pitches effectively. The breaking-pitches had good bite, and his change-up was moving - he generated a 47% whiff rate on his off-speed stuff. Final line; 8 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 K.
  • Before the game I put out a bold prediction for Opening Day; that JJ Hardy would take David Price deep. And he came so close in his first at bat, driving a pitch the opposite off the top of the wall for a double. Then he drew a walk. One game into the season, but we already have a Nick Markakis Day, even if Nick wasn't the one to get it. He also made a nice spinning play on a grounder hit up the middle. Shortstop with some power and patience who can also field? That's why I was so excited the team got him.
  • Brian Roberts had a two-run triple, and Nick added a hit and a couple RBI as well.
The Bad:
  • Luke Scott did not look too good versus the lefty (0-4, 2 K), though he did make a nice running catch in the left-center field gap.
  • Adam Jones also did his usual shtick at the plate (0-4, 2K).
The Final:

Nice way to start off the season... in the WIN column! Guthrie may not pitch this will again all year, but even a small step down will be good enough to keep the team in games more often than not. Jim Johnson came on for the ninth* and gave up a solo home run to the first batter, but then settled down with two K's and a groundout to close it out. See? Three run lead in the ninth inning and JJ locks it down. Who says he can't close? Brian Matusz is a scratch tomorrow with a back injury, so Chris Tillman will take his spot and try to keep the team rolling after a very good game one.

* Bringing in JJ to face the top of the Rays line-up who had already seen Guthrie three times was the correct call. Especially since Jeremy's control started to waver ever so slightly in the 8th.

Baltimore Sun O's Predictions

Written by Daniel Moroz on .


The main Orioles writers at the Baltimore Sun put down some predictions for the team today, and I thought they were... interesting*.

* Just a little good-natured ribbing.

"HR leader: Jones (Jeff Zrebiec); Guerrero (Dan Connolly); Reynolds (Pete Schmuck)
RBI leader:
Markakis (Jeff); Lee (Dan); Guerrero (Pete)
Highest Avg.:
Markakis (Jeff); Markakis (Dan); Guerrero (Pete)
Wins:
Guthrie (Jeff); Britton (Dan); Arrieta (Pete)
Strikeout leader:
Arrieta (Jeff); Matusz (Dan); Matusz (Pete)
Team wins:
75 (Jeff); 77 (Dan); 79 (Pete)
Lone All-Star: Jones (Jeff); Markakis (Dan); Matusz (Pete)
Markakis' average:
.313 (Jeff); .322 (Dan); .309 (Pete)
Gregg's saves:
27 (Jeff); 24 (Dan); 29 (Pete)
Reynolds' strikeouts:
207 (Jeff); 211 (Dan); 178 (Pete)
Guerrero's homers:
25 (Jeff); 32 (Dan); 23 (Pete)
Wieters' average:
.265 (Jeff); .278 (Dan); .290 (Pete)
Scott's homers:
24 (Jeff); 22 (Dan); 19 (Pete)
Guthrie's ERA:
4.23 (Jeff); 4.12 (Dan); 4.01 (Pete)
Fox's homers:
9 (Jeff); 12 (Dan); 5 (Pete)
Most Valuable Oriole:
Markakis (Jeff); Markakis (Dan); Guerrero (Pete)"

Opening Day: Orioles at Rays

Written by Daniel Moroz on .


The Rays lost some talent this off-season, while the Orioles added several players. Both teams should be trending towards each other this season, even if they still end up separated by 10 games. In any case, baseball is back! I'm not quite as enthused about the Orioles (as a franchise) as I was in previous years, but it's truly exciting to see meaningful games again. Here are our Opening Day line-ups (with 2010 stats):

Rays:


Batting Fielding fWAR
Ben Zobrist .238/.346/.353 8.6 3.1
Johnny Damon .271/.355/.401 0.6 1.9
Evan Longoria .294/.372/.507 11.1 6.9
Manny Ramirez .298/.409/.460 -5.7 1.6
Dan Johnson .198/.343/.414 -3.6 0.1
B.J. Upton .237/.322/.424 0.2 3.4
Matt Joyce .241/.360/.477 4.2 1.9
Reid Brignac .256/.307/.385 2.6 1.2
John Jaso .263/.372/.378 -2.0 2.5

That certainly isn't the scariest looking line-up in the world, but there's a fair chance they'll have all nine guys post above average OBPs - and that goes a long way towards scoring some runs. Plus, the top four guys are probably better than the top of the O's line-up. Somewhat unrelated, but Longoria might be more valuable (by WAR) than any two Orioles combined.

David Price:

ERA FIP xFIP K/9 BB/9 GB% fWAR
2.72 3.42 3.83 8.1 3.4 43.7% 4.3

Price was very good last year, if not quite as Cy Young worthy as his 19-6 record may have implied. Here's a PitchFX* graphic of his "stuff" from 2010. The size of each circle represent how often it was thrown, and the location denotes movement (from the catcher's perspective, relative to a pitch thrown with no spin).

* Data isn't perfect, but gives a fair idea I think.



Price's main fastball is a hard four-seamer that will miss quite a few bats - as will his two-seamer, though it trades some velocity for a lot of tailing action. He uses the heater a lot, mixing in a bit of a sweeping curveball, a hard slider, and a change-up with more tail than sink. It might make sense for O's batters to hone in on the fastball.

Orioles:


Batting Fielding fWAR
Brian Roberts .278/.354/.391 1.8 1.5
Nick Markakis .297/.370/.436 -5.2 2.8
Derrek Lee .260/.347/.428 2.1 2.0
Vladimir Guerrero .300/.345/.496 0.2 2.6
Adam Jones .284/.325/.442 -5.0 2.3
Luke Scott .284/.368/.535 -1.3 3.1
Mark Reynolds .198/.320/.433 1.7 2.4
Matt Wieters .249/.319/.377 5.0 2.3
J.J. Hardy .268/.320/.394 8.1 2.4

Scott is probably batting 6th because there's a lefty on the mound (I had him 8th even), but then batting Reynolds below him doesn't makes much sense. Plus Wieters (who has been much less effective against lefites) above Hardy. Anyway... there's a very evenly distributed talent here, with no real stars. Funny how Reynold's and Jones' OBP and SLG numbers were so similar despite almost a 100 point disparity in batting average.

Jeremy Guthrie:

ERA FIP xFIP K/9 BB/9 GB% fWAR
3.83 4.44 4.60 5.1 2.2 42.3% 2.3

Another year where Guthrie's ERA beat his peripherals. At this point, we'd only be regressing his BABIP about half way to the mean, so I'd say his true talent is somewhere between that ERA and the xFIP.



Guthrie doesn't really miss bats, despite his above average velocity. Maybe it's the movement on his pitches that's contributed to his low BABIPs though.
So, would anyone be interesting in putting this kind of thing together for the site before each game? I've got a spreadsheet set up to do it relatively quickly, and there's room for exposition and commentary on the team and whatnot. If so, feel free to email This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. .

Stats: UZR, WAR, ERA, FIP, xFIP, K/9 & BB/9, GB%, BABIP, PitchFX