The roster isn't set - Vlad Guerrero is still floating around in free agency, after all - and I'm not done going through the player projections, but I had an itch to look at the Orioles potential line-up using the guidelines put forth in The Book (if you haven’t read it, you should):

“Your three best hitter should bat somewhere in the #1, #2, and #4 slots. You fourth- and fifth-best hitters should occupy the #3 and #5 slots. The #1 and #2 slots will have players with more walks than those in the #4 and #5 slots. From slot #6 through #9, put the players in descending order of quality.”

Here are the current projections for the starting nine (Wieters through Roberts are my own; after-wards are ZiPS/CAIRO):

The Orioles made a couple of moves today, bringing back left-handed pitcher Mark Hendrickson (for his third year in Baltimore) and outfielder Jeff Fiorentino (after we spent some time in other organizations) on minor league deals.

Hendrickson's ERA shot up from 4.37 to 5.26 in his first two years in an O's uniform, but he probably pitched about as well on both years (4.57 xFIP in '09 with a fair amount of time in the rotation, to 4.13 xFIP in '10 almost entirely out of the pen). He struck out more batters last year (6.6 K/9 to 5.2), walked fewer (2.4 BB/9 to 2.8), and did a better job keeping the ball in the yard (though that was partially a result of a better home run per flyball rate, as 2009's 12.7% mark was on the high side).

The Orioles have added some rotation depth by signing former Oakland Athletic Justin Duchscherer to a one year contract that could pay him a max of $4.5 M in salary ($1.1 M base if he makes the roster) and incentives (based on making a whole bunch of starts, which is quite a longshot). The 33 year-old right-hander hasn't been healthy for a couple years, so this is more an upside signing than one to add veteran stability. Duke has made only 5 major league starts since 2008, which was his first year as a starting pitcher (moving from the pen, which makes looking at his career numbers somewhat deceiving).

The Orioles had their annual Fan Fest today at the Convention Center, and the team was kind enough to invite me down for the Bloggers Forum. That wasn't until the end of the day though, so I spent the first 6 hours wandering around the building just enjoying being around baseball (saw a couple guys in Matt Wieters Facts shirts, which was really cool), talking with a couple of other bloggers, and hanging out behind the stage (eavesdropping on the media interviewing the players). I honestly didn't pay much attention to the players and whoever doing their Q&As; maybe I'll start once a player answers the question "are you ready/excited for the season" with something other than a yes.

A few notes:

Every other day or so there's a report out that the Orioles are looking at signing Vlad Guerrero or have talked to his agent or have considered making him an offer. And then that gets brought back with the note that nothing is imminent. Oriole fans get upset; "why can't they just sign him already... he's such a great hitter to put in the middle of the line-up!" With Mike Napoli* getting traded to Texas, there really aren't any more jobs waiting for Vlad. That's caused him to drop his demands from a two-year, $16 M deal to one year and $8 M, which is still a good $7 M more than the O's should bother offering him, in my opinion.

* How did the Blue Jays manage to rid themselves of virtually all of Vernon Wells' contract and still get players as well? Amazing. Kind of cements my feelings that Andy MacPhail is - while a decent general manager - only the 5th best GM in the AL East.

Vlad Guerrero was a great player in his prime, and is still a good hitter. He's no longer a great hitter though. He's turning 36 in a week, and his knees aren't exactly in great shape - that fully limits him to the DH spot. To be valuable from that position, a player really has to hit. Vlad did last year (.300/.345/.496) but not quite so much a year before (.295/.334/.460). Despite hitting .300 (or close to it), Vlad rarely walks (especially so if you take out the intentional ones) which keeps his OBP not much above average. He still has some power, but he's more likely to hit 20 home runs than 30 at this point. If Vlad were to hit .295/.335/.470 for the O's next year in 575 plate appearances, he would be worth about 1 Win Above Replacement. At $5 M per win, that's $5 M (duh). So even if you want to sign Guerrero, giving him more than $5 M wouldn't be a great idea (especially given the lack of demand for his services).

The initial team projections are posted here. A more thorough walkthrough of how I put the individual ones together is in the Matt Wieters post here. The components I'm looking for are playing time (plate appearances), batting (BA/OBP/SLG), and fielding.

Today we're looking at the longest tenured member of the Orioles; second-baseman Brian Roberts.

Playing Time:

Roberts missed a large chunk of the 2010 season due to injury, accumulating only 261 plate appearances, but in the preceding three years he was good for 700+. A middle infielder on the wrong side of 30 (he'll turn 34 late this year) with recent history of back problems is mighty troubling though, and thinking he'll hit the DL for at least a minimum stretch in 2011 isn't crazy. I'm going with 575 PA, which is like missing ~35 games.

Batting:

The Orioles added some potential bullpen depth today, signing soon to be 30 year-old lefty reliever Clay Rapada to a minor league contract. I was excited for a second, thinking he was one of the pitchers I had suggested the team go after - but that was actually Clay Zavada*.

* Zavada is three years younger, and has posted better numbers at every level with (in my opinion) better stuff. He's left-handed too. And has an awesome 'stache. Did miss most of 2010 with Tommy John surgery though.

Rapada doesn't have much major league experience - 36.1 career innings pitched from 2007 to 2010 - and he hasn't been particularly effective (4.71 ERA, 5.63 FIP, 5.28 xFIP). Different story in the minors though; in 221 career innings at Triple-A he has a 2.77 ERA while striking out better than a batter an inning. His control leaves a bit to be desired (3.8 BB/9), but it looks like he was able to generate groundballs at a better than average clip.

Limited Pitch F/X data in the majors shows a fastball without much giddy-up (~86 mph) but with a lot of sinking and tailing action (to be expected given his side-arm delivery), complemented by a frisbee-type slider which has gotten a fair amount of whiffs (even against righties).

His career platoon splits are pretty massive, but that's obviously a very small sample size:

	FIP	xFIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
LHH	3.77	4.35	8.1	5.0	0.5
RHH	7.90	6.55	4.4	7.7	2.2

Sadly, MinorLeagueSplits isn't around to provide similar data for Rapada's time in the minors. Just for 2010, he had very similar walk and home run numbers against both righties and lefties, but strike-out rates of 7 K/9 and 11.9 K/9 (vs. RHH and LHH).

Rapada isn't a bad arm to take a flyer on. Maybe he'll stick and be the team's LOOGY for 2011 with minimal investment. Still, he's not likely to be a real plus for the team - just the replacement level lefty they happen to have for this particular season. And if that lefty was named 'Joe Beimel' instead of 'Clay Rapada', the O's might pick up an additional run or two.

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Stats: ERA, FIP, xFIP, K/9, BB/9, Pitch F/X