The Orioles have now lost five games in a row, and people are jumping off the bandwagon left and right. General consensus seems to be that the pitching has gone from great to terrible;

	W-L	ERA	FIP	xFIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Last week	1-5	4.41	4.51	3.88	7.9	2.1	1.8
Full season	29-22	3.67	4.13	4.01	7.1	2.8	1.1

Lot of home runs (due in part to many more flyballs) and a .318 BABIP, but one could argue that the pitchers themselves have been somewhere around "fine". Their K/BB ratio over the last week is 3.8 (compared to 2.5 overall), which is pretty darn good. Yeah they're giving up almost a run more per game, but at least some of that is just normal variation.

The offense has had some trouble scoring runs too, though they're not hitting any worse overall:

	R/G	BA/OBP/SLG	wRC+	HR/G
Last week	3.7	.250/.332/.402	105	1
Full season	4.5	.249/.314/.435	101	1.5

The O's have traded home runs for other types of hits (BABIP of .313 vs. .286), plus some extra walks (and K's). The issue, which has been evident all along, is that when the team doesn't hit home runs, they don't tend to score much. So, even though the Orioles are hitting just as well, if not better, they're scoring fewer runs per game. It was going to happen eventually, and it was always a questions how the team would off-set fewer balls leaving the yard.

It's not surprising that the O's have gone 1-5 over the last week, but it doesn't really tell us a lot about the team. If you thought they were a 100+ win team before and you don't think that now then, well, good - they were never a 100+ win team. Otherwise, things haven't changed all that much from a couple weeks ago:

Play like a __ win team	Finish with __ wins
68	76
70	77
72	78
74	80
76	81
78	82
80	84
82	85
84	87
86	88
88	89
90	91
92	92

The top end is down a little, but the chances of the O's winning over 90 games were always going to be remote. Otherwise, they still have a solid chance of finishing over .500, even if it isn't written in stone.

Orioles fans have been clamoring for it all season, and the team seems to have finally locked up Adam Jones with a contract extension. I was a little worried that they would feel they "had" to keep Jones, and end up giving him a Matt Kemp type deal (8 years, $160 M), but was looking at 6 years, $80-90 M myself. Actual contract; 6 years, $85 M. Nicely done, Orioles.

I said last week that Jones probably isn't nearly this good, but a 5 year, $75 M extension (as Adam was already going to be under team control for 2013 anyway, likely getting ~$10 M in his final year of arbitration) certainly seems fair. Assume Jones more or less just repeats his 2010-2011 and is 2.5-3 win player through his "peak" years and then starts dropping off with in his age 30 season (2016) - then (with some salary inflation each year) he'd be worth $13+ M a year. That's the kind of deal I was hoping for - one that would be still be fine if 2012 is a fluke - and that's what the O's got. They wisely paid him like the player he "is" (mostly ignoring the 2012 outburst) instead of the one he "could be". Really, I'm not sure that Jones would have gotten much less even if he had just repeated his 2011 season this year.

On the other hand, if Jones really does establish himself as perpetual a 30+ home run guy with even close to average defense in center (for the time being), this contract could be a substantial bargain. The low on-base percentage and plate discipline issues might still be there, but power-hitting center-fielders don't exactly grow on trees. There's going to be the usual risks associated with all long-term deals, but I think the Orioles did a nice job locking in a decent floor with some real upside; let's say Jones regresses and ends this year at only 5.5 wins, and declines by a half-win starting next year - that's around $30 in excess value the O's would be getting.

Keeping Jones in Baltimore is a win-win-win: he's now set for life, and gets to remain the leader of a franchise that's (hopefully) on the upswing; the O's keep one of the best players around for a while without having to guarantee excessive amounts of money in general or any at all to someone in their mid-30s (Jones' contract will take him through age 32); and the fans will obviously love this. It's a good day in Birdland.

When the Orioles drafted Xavier Avery in the second round in 2008, I wasn't terribly excited. "Fast" plus "Raw" usually indicates (hopefully) a 4th outfielder to me, and Avery's minor league numbers - .266/.328/.363 overall - didn't exactly dissuade me from that view. Actually seeing him in Baltimore though, I've been pleasantly surprised and somewhat impressed.

Batting Avery in the lead-off spot because of his speed seemed like a poor idea, but - though he's probably not one of the team's better hitters - he's at least showed a nice approach there. Beyond walking at an above average 10% of his plate appearances, Avery has shown a relatively patient approach and a decent level of pitch recognition. His rate of swinging at pitches outside the strike-zone is better than league average - it was outstanding (~18%, I believe), but regressed somewhat with the Boston series (now ~26%). In that area, the questions are (1) is that legit - will Avery continue to display a patient approach, and (2) as pitchers learn more about him, will his relative lack of power mean that they can just pound the strike-zone (thus limiting his walks, even if he does remain patient)?

Avery hit just 18 home runs in over 2,000 career minor league plate appearances, but five of them did come this year. Additionally, he has driven some balls pretty deep as an Oriole - not all of his 5 extra-base hits (4 doubles, 1 triple) are due to stretching singles. If he can continue to do that, pitchers might need to respect him a little more.

Another key is keeping his on-base percentage up by getting the bat on the ball. For a non-power hitter, Avery struck out a fair bit in the minors (~23% of his PA). In the majors so far that's down to 16%, even though his contact rate is a little worse than the average. I can buy a high BABIP from the speedy Avery - even if it doesn't stay at .333 - but if he goes back to striking out over 20% of the time, it'll be hard for him to hit for enough average to maintain an above average OBP if (when) his walk rate falls off some.

At 22 years old, Xavier Avery has shown an above average bat (.273/.347/.409) since being pressed into action due to injuries (Reimold and Chavez). I'm not sure how good of an outfielder he is at this point - he seems to cover a lot of ground, without taking the best routes sometimes - and he adds at least a little bit of value on the bases (75% success rate in the minors; 2 for 3 in the majors so far). I'm not ready to anoint him as the O's starting left-fielder once everyone is back, but there's at least a fair chance he can outplay Endy Chavez at this point, which is more than I would have said a couple month ago (though it's probably best for Avery to continue playing every day in the minors, instead of sitting on the bench most days in Baltimore).

Brian Matusz has a terrible 2011 season. He was hurt, came back with a big drop in his velocity, and ended the year with a 10.69 ERA. Watching him pitch, it was hard to believe he was truly healthy. This year has been a bit of a different story. Though his ERA has been above 5 most of the season, after giving up 13 runs in his first 3 games (14.2 IP), there were reasons to keep the faith - and (yeah, it's only one game) it paid off yesterday with Matusz's 6.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 9 K performance against the Red Sox.

Matusz started out averaging 90-91 mph with his fastball (a touch above where he was to end last year) and that's ticked up to 91-92 his last few games. His command - which has been the main thing holding him back, I think - has improved. He walked 4, 4, and 3 batters to begin the season, but hasn't allowed more than 2 free passes in a game since. Over the recent 6 game stretch, Matusz is 4-1 with a 3.57 ERA (3.64 FIP), 6.9 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9 - I imagine most people would be quite happy to get that for the rest of the year.

That's brought his season numbers down to 4.86 ERA, 4.14 FIP, 4.51 xFIP. Matusz isn't striking out quite as many batters as he used to, but a 6.8 K/9 is solid enough. If he can throw strikes then there should be room for improving his 3.4 BB/9 as well. And more favorable counts could also lead to more strike-outs, if he's able to use his (still) quality off-speed pitches more effectively (as we saw last night, with Matusz getting 8 whiffs with his slider). The slider is actually a pitch he's been going to more this year, instead of leaning on the curveball and change-up as much - which is more similar to his usage patterns from his rookie season. It also looks like Matusz is throwing a cutter (more?) this year, which is interesting in between the fastball and slider.

As an extreme flyball pitcher, Matusz is always going to have some issues with home runs. His career BABIP against of .318 is on the high side, but it's only in 320 IP. Even with those factors, there's not real reason why Brian Matusz can't continue to post a 2:1 strike-out to walk ratio (or better) and provide the Orioles with a pretty nice #4/5 starter (assuming Arrieta, Hammel, and Chen are the top 3). He may never turn into the top of the rotation guy some people expected him to be when he first came up, but given the disaster of 2011, I'd certainly take it.

I wrote about the position players yesterday; Adam Jones is clearly playing over his head (we don't know by how much, but I'd wager that he doesn't end the year with 50 home runs), but otherwise things seem relatively reasonable overall. There will be some drop-off there, but maybe not a huge amount.

It's on the pitching side where I think more people are holding their breath. After years and years (and years) of poor pitching, the O's staff has done some work this year. Their 3.44 ERA is probably unsustainable, but the 4.01 FIP and 3.97 xFIP are both better than average as well (if only by a little).

The starting staff has been pretty average across the board overall:

	ERA	FIP	xFIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	GB%
O's starters	4.17	4.16	4.12	6.8	3.0	1.1	42.2%
AL starters	4.28	4.21	4.09	6.7	3.1	1.1	44.7%

Jason Hammel has been fantastic - 8.5 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 60% groundball rate. The new two-seamer plus increased use of the slider may really have turned him into a different pitcher. He's not likely to finish with a sub-3 ERA (even if his xFIP is 3.02), but under 4 seems reasonable.

Wei-Yin Chen is matching Hammel in the ERA department (2.66 vs. 2.68), but he's been (a) an extreme flyball pitcher who hasn't yet given up too many home runs, and (b) only solid at striking out batters (6.6 K/9). Thus the almost two run disparity between his ERA and his xFIP (4.43). He certainly looks capable of sustaining that latter figure at least, but the difference between the two in 100 more innings is around 20 extra runs allowed.

Jake Arrieta has had the opposite issue, with an ugly 5.21 ERA but a nice 3.92 FIP and nicer 3.45 xFIP. His strike-outs are up* this year (7.8 K/9), and he's cut his walk rate almost in half (2.2 BB/9).

* Some of this has more to do with getting into better counts by throwing more strikes.

The big problem for him seems to have been some poor luck with men on base:

	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	xFIP
Bases Empty	7.5	2.2	0.9	3.31
Men On	8.2	2.3	1.8	3.65
RISP	11.0	3.0	2.0	3.19

Unlike the O's offense, a disproportionate number of home runs he's allowed have been with runners on base. That's not likely to continue.

The 3.45 xFIP is probably generous, but he could definitely post to a 4 ERA going forward if he continues pitching like he has so far (what with missing bats and hitting corners). That should mostly cancel out Chen, depending on who can stay healthy and pitch some innings.

Tommy Hunter has given up a ton of homers - 1.8 per nine - while walking more batter (2.6 BB/9) without seeing much of an increase in strike-outs (5.1 K/9). Because he gets more groundballs though, he actually has a better xFIP (4.34) than Chen. Once balls stop leaving the yard at such a high rate, he should be able to settle in as a back of the rotation starter.

Things have been pretty ugly for Brian Matusz this year - 5.50 ERA, 4.62 FIP, 5.03 xFIP - but it's certainly an improvement over 2011. If the fastball command can keep coming back, he might be able to slot in with Hunter in the rotation. Like Chen, Matusz allows a lot of flyballs - but his have found the seats with more regularity (1.2 HR/9). Plus, he's walked way more batters (4.1 BB/9). I've seen enough out of him to think he could improve some, but at least he's not likely to hurt the team worse going forward (if he pitches poorly, he'll be out of the rotation at some point).

Overall, the rotation is probably going to back-slide some. If Hammel or Arrieta miss time, it could get a little ugly. Someone (Zach Britton? Dare I say... Roy Oswalt*?) replacing Matusz - or Brian just pitching better - off-sets that somewhat, but they're probably going to allow (at least) 10-20 more runs than they're currently on pace for.

* Roy Oswalt probably isn't coming to Baltimore even if they have a 10 game lead in July and offer him $15 M.

The O's bullpen has also been doing something we haven't seen in Baltimore in a while - not sucking;

	K/9	BB/9	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP
Jim Johnson	6.1	2.0	71.4%	0.51	3.37	3.17
Pedro Strop	8.1	4.3	62.5%	1.29	3.21	3.24
Matt Lindstrom	9.0	2.6	52.5%	1.29	2.04	3.11
Darren O'Day	9.8	2.0	42.9%	1.47	3.03	2.72
Luis Ayala	5.6	2.3	48.3%	1.86	3.33	4.21
Troy Patton	6.1	2.0	41.4%	4.58	4.50	3.91
Kevin Gregg	7.5	4.5	50.0%	3.75	4.39	4.78

That back end of the pen has been something. Lindstrom being out hurts, but Stu Pomeranz looked impressive in his short call-up and I could see him filling in relatively well later in the season. Dana Eveland out there now is... not the absolute worst.

The full unit's 2.18 ERA isn't going to continue, and how high it rises is going to have a real impact on the team's record. A 3.75 ERA (to match their FIP and 3.71 xFIP) going forward means something like 60 additional runs allowed over their current pace.

Putting it all together, while the pitching staff is set to allow around 652 runs if things keep going as they are, there's a good chance they'll end up allowing between 50 and 75 runs more than that. That's not accounting for defensive regression, of course.

If you say all of the position player decline (maybe ~60 runs vs. current pace) is attributed to runs scored, then that would drop them from 717 to 652 (can't compare to last year since defense is being folded in too).

The team's current run differential, and (obviously) the 717-652 one, both give a ~.543 pythag winning percentage. That's 88 wins over a full season. If the team ends up at 667-700 (minus 50 - plus 50), then that's a .466 winning percentage in the remaining 124 games (75.5 wins over 162 games). As shown yesterday, that would - with their current start - have the O's winning 80-81 games this year. If the team ends up 647-725 (minus 70 - plus 75), that's .417 (68 wins over 162), and they finish with 76 W's. So somewhere in that range - 76 to 81 wins to end the year - seems reasonable enough.

Certainly this is largely guess-work, but the Orioles are very likely to regress at some point (they're not going to win 100 games). Depending on how hard it hits them and how healthy their key players stay, at least the team's first winning* season since 1997 is realistically within reach - and I imagine that 99% of O's fans would have gladly taken that before the season started. The middle of May is still a long time away from October though, so not only would I not print play-off tickets - I'm not even that confident the O's finish above 5th place (tough division, that AL East).

That's a question a lot of people are asking these days, as the O's sit atop the standings in the AL East. Short answer: probably not.

The team has legitimately played well so far this year, but they're not this good. Right now they're on pace for 100+ wins, and everyone knows they can't keep that pace up. Here's what level they need to play at for the rest of the season to hit various win totals:

If they play like a __ win team	They'll end up with __ wins
68	75
70	77
72	79
74	80
76	82
78	83
80	85
82	86
84	88
86	89
88	91
90	92
92	94

As you can see, the wins the team has already banked has lifted their floor up a fair bit, but to actually make the playoffs they're probably going to need to play like a "real" playoff team from here on out.

Here are guys who might be over-performing:

Adam Jones - .302/.350/.591, +6 UZR, 2.5 fWAR

Can he keep it going?

Probably not. Jones' line is carried largely by his home run production - 11 already (on pace for ~47 homers) - and, though he does have legitimate power and is hitting the ball in the air more than he used to, he's still a groundball hitter and just isn't going to maintain a 23.4% home run per flyball rate. If his HR/FB rate was 17% instead (which is higher than his career 13.6%, as well as last year's 16.7%), he'd be hitting a still very good but not amazing .282/.331/.510. Also, Jones probably isn't going to post a +25 UZR this year (I'd take an even 0 going forward). After a -20 total for 2009-11, that would be quite a reversal. Still, he does look better out there - I don't recall often having the thought this year, "if Jones was as good of a center-fielder as people thought he was, he would have caught that ball", which came up not infrequently watching games in previous seasons (and still does with Nick Markakis).

On the bright side, Jones' 5% walk rate is - while still bad - the second highest of his career. And he's cut down on his strike-outs thus far. So while he's probably not a 6 +win player, maybe Jones has finally crossed the 3 (and maybe even 4) win threshold. (He's likely to literally finish above 4 fWAR this year just due to his crazy start, but he could play like a 4 win player from here on out, which would push him into the 5-6 range).

Matt Wieters - .274/.357/.540, +2 DRS, 1.6 fWAR

Same thing as with Jones regarding the homers - 8 already, on pace for ~37, 19% HR/FB rate. At least he's elevating the ball more, which partially explains it (42% flyball rate, compared to ~38-39% previously). Drop his HR/FB% to 14.5% (higher than 11% career and 13.6% last year), and he's hitting .258/.343/.476. That would still be great for a Gold Glove catcher though. It'l be fun to see whether Jones or Wieters leads the team in fWAR this year - the former has the head start, but the latter is probably playing closer to his true talent level so he shouldn't see as much of a drop-off.

Robert Andino - .286/.338/.405, +1 UZR, 0.8 fWAR

Andino's plate discipline type numbers have take a poor turn, going from ~2 K/BB last year to almost 4 K/BB this year. He's not chasing more balls though (slightly fewer, actually), but he's taking more strikes and whiffing much more often when he does swing. A .367 BABIP solves a lot of those problems, at least temporarily. And though 3 home runs isn't exciting (for non-Pujols hitters, at least), Andino hit just 5 total in 2011. He came into the season with 11 career home runs, and is one pace to more than double that up. Still, once the BABIP comes down, things could get a little dicey. Still, a lot of people expected Andino to take a step back this year, and with this start he has a good chance of matching or surpassing last year's 1.8 fWAR.

Chris Davis - .274/.317/.462, +1 UZR, 0.4 fWAR

Above replacement level! The season with Davis is a win-win, in that if he keeps this up (and he could - his .346 BABIP isn't that much higher than his career .336, and his 20.8% HR/FB rate isn't insane given that he really does have a ton of pop, and even if it comes down he can make up for it by hitting fewer groundballs (44.6%, compared to 37.4% career) then, hey, 1-2 win season from him is 1-3 wins more than expected. And if he doesn't (the BABIP and HR/FB% probably will fall some), then we could have the really fun fact of Davis posting a higher fWAR as a pitcher (0.1) than as a position player.

JJ Hardy (?) - .252/.299/.490, +1 UZR, 1.2 fWAR

Home runs again. (It's not even just Camden Yards either, as the team has hit 1.5 home runs per game at home and 1.7 per game on the road.)

Interestingly, Hardy isn't doing anything unusual when you compare to last year:

	FB%	HR/FB%
Career	38.9%	11.8%
2011	43.4%	15.7%
2012	44.5%	15.8%

Hit the ball in the air, and hit it hard. It's certainly working as intended. As a bonus, Hardy is chasing pitches out of the strike-zone way less often than he did last year (while also swinging at strikes more often than in the past, if still a below league average rate - that's a great combo), so his 6.1% walk rate could actually have run to move up some. The main difference between last year and this year is that Hardy's BABIP dropped from .273 to .240. Even that out and he's actually improving on 2011's 4.8 fWAR season. He keeps that up for a little while longer, and he could be worth his entire contract (3 years, $21 M), and perhaps a little extra, in each individual year of the deal. Seems good. (By the way, Jim Hoey has a 5.52 ERA in Triple-A... for the Blue Jays. Brett Jacobson has a 6.55 BB/9 in Double-A for Minnesota. Thanks Andy!)

Under-performers?

Nick Markakis - .245/.333/.434, -4 UZR, 0.2 fWAR

That fielding figure is largely what's keeping Nick down, as his 110 wRC+ is actually higher than the 107 from 2011 (and 2009). The walks are up - an 11.5% rate would be his highest since 2008 - and so are the home runs (6, on pace for ~26, 17.6% HR/FB). I so very, very much want to believe that he can maintain both, especially since he's taking more pitches (in and - especially - out of the zone) and striking out more (normally not good, but my theory for years has been that in an effort to cut down on his K's, Nick started trying to just put the bat on the ball; thus his contact rate went up, as his strike-outs - but also his walks and power numbers - went down). Once his .261 BABIP improves - and there's no real reason it shouldn't - he could be hitting in the neighborhood of .280/.364/.476 (.306 BABIP) if everything else stays as-is (unlikely, but a fan can dream). Combined with a reasonably bad UZR (say, -7), and he could post his first 3+ win season since '08. Not going to approach 6.3 fWAR with the fielding, but I'd take it at this point. More realistically, the walk and home run numbers fall off as the BABIP improves and he finishes at his "new normal" of 2+ wins.

Wilson Betemit - .228/.294/.435, -2 UZR, 0 fWAR

Having him play the field doesn't really help, but once his .267 BABIP improves (.338 career) he should at least be OK at the plate (even if the 21.7% HR/FB rate doesn't keep up).

Mark Reynolds - .191/.324/.337, -5 UZR, -0.5 fWAR

He's walking a ton - career high 16.7% rate - but it looks like the rest of the team has stolen his power. Only 2 homers, and a 7.7% HR/FB rate. That will pick up at some point. The -5 UZR is brutal, but the -21 full season pace would still amazingly result in a 7 run improvement from 2011. Even if you want to be pessimistic and say he's not even more than a replacement level anymore (which wouldn't shock me, but seems overly harsh), that's still much better than what they've seen so far.

So, quick and rough estimate of fWAR:

	On pace for	Finish more like	Difference
Adam Jones	10	5.5	-4.5
Robert Andino	3.5	1.8	-1.7
Matt Wieters	7	5.5	-1.5
Chris Davis	1.7	0.7	-1
JJ Hardy	5	4.5	-0.5
Wilson Betemit	0	0.6	0.6
Nick Markakis	0.9	2	1.1
Mark Reynolds	-2	0	2

That's an almost 6 win swing, between the pace these guys are playing at, and the place they're more likely to end up at. It's actually funny how much of this is on Adam Jones. If he really is even close to this good, then that will be pretty amazing. There are questions about whether the O's should try to extend or trade Jones this year, but that actually depends hugely on Jones himself; if he's actually much better than he's shown in previous years, then the O's near-term outlook is a fair bit brighter and it makes sense to extend him if possible. If this is a mirage, and later this year or next year Jones goes back closer to what he has been - an above average, but merely solid player - then trading him could be fantastic (since the near-term outlook is worse, and you should be able to get more for Jones given his blistering start). That's going to be a big decision for them, and if they guess wrong - trading superstar Jones and having to wait longer to be competitive, or signing solid Jones to a huge deal and then having that cause issues for them when they finally are ready to be truly competitive - it could be pretty bad for the team.

Overall, the offense hasn't been playing too far over their heads, but unless they make up for the inevitable decline in home runs (they're on pace for 254) by improving in other areas, they'll probably end the year at slightly below average instead of above (currently sitting at 105 wRC+).

Part II - the pitching staff - goes up tomorrow.

Taking two of three against the Rays - and almost completing the sweep with a valiant (though failed) comeback yesterday - is pretty good. Only a two-game set with the Yankees remains in the "hard" stretch, before the O's get to face KC and Washington.

The Good:

• Jason Hammel started the game out quite nicely, touching 96 with his fastball and getting some whiffs on both it (5 total) and his slider (5 also, plus another on the curve). Control didn't hold up, but against a good offense (with a poor defense behind him) he ended up pitching relatively well; 5 IP, 7 H, 5 R (4 ER), 3 BB, 3 K, 1 HR.
• Xavier Avery picked up his first Major League hit with a rocket double in the right-center field gap, and then later added a stand-up triple down the first-base line. He's pretty fast. Also showed a good approach at the plate in general.
• JJ Hardy had a couple of hits as well, including his 9th home run of the year (also hit a ball to the deepest part of the park that Curtis Granderson ran down). If Hardy stays healthy, it looks like he might have a decent chance of posting another 30 home run season.
• Nick Johnson walked twice, raising his walk rate on the season from 5.8% to 8.9%.

The Bad:

• Chris Davis had a brutal game, going 0-3 at the plate with a strike-out and a double play, and making an error in the field plus misplaying another ball that helped lead to runs scoring. He's just 3-28 (all singles) with 14 K's  and no walks over the last 7 games (starting with the one he won in Boston) - so he's actually hit worse than your average pitcher
• The last three innings for Hammel weren't the best, and though Luis Ayala managed to minimize the damage in the 6th after entering with no outs and the bases loaded, he did give up the game-winning home run to Teixeira in the 7th.
• Dana Eveland somehow navigated the middle of the New York order without giving up a run the 8th, but wasn't as luck in the 9th. Totaled 1.2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 1 HBP, 0 K. The O's traded not one, but two prospects for him. Even if they weren't particularly good ones, that's still pretty bad.

The Final:

With the 7-5 loss, the O's drop back into a tie for first in the AL East. It was not the prettiest game - more like Orioles-Yankee games of old.