Things I didn't expect to hear at the end of April - the starting pitching is carrying the Orioles (the pitchers allowed 1 earned run in this series with the Jays). Yep.

The Good:

• Brian Matusz continues to improve on the mound. I didn't have a great angle to see the plate, but it seemed like maybe he had more consistent command of the fastball. Off-speed stuff was still good. Final line: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 R (0 ER), 2 BB, 3 K.
• Darren O'Day pitched two perfect innings in relief, striking out three.
• Nick Markakis went 3-4 at the plate, with all three hits going to the opposite field. That's nice, but I wouldn't mind seeing him drive a pitch at some point too. Also, if he could have picked up a hits with two runners on in the 7th that would have been swell.
• Adam Jones picked up two hits, including his 6th home run of the year.
• Chris Davis actually had some decent looking at bats, even if he went hitless in the first three. (though he did draw a walk). Then he gets down in the count 0-2 in his 4th plate appearance and hits a two-run homer - go figure.
• Congrats to Ryan Flaherty on picking up his first Major League RBI (sac fly) and his first hit (a bunt single) and his second hit (a real single).

The Bad:

• Nick Johnson is... probably not long for the Majors. 0-3 at the plate as he set the record for starting an O's career with the longest 0-fer amongst position players. Then he doesn't get a bouncer down the first-base line in the 6th (with two outs) that he should have at least knocked down, and the result is a two-run triple (was first scored a hit and the two runs were charged to Matusz, but that was later changed). So Johnson is 0-26, but has (now) been hit by pitches 3 times, walked once, driven in a run, scored 2 runs, and stolen a base(!).
• When the O's don't hit home runs they don't really score - only 2 runs through 7 innings with some runners left on. Then, well, they scored some runs in a hurry. Maybe the team really will just score 750 runs this year by hitting 250 homers.

The Final:

This game probably buys Matusz some extra time in the majors, which is nice to see (as is sweeping Toronto). The win keeps the O's tied for first in the AL East. They only need to win just over 40% of their games from here on out (a 66-win full-season pace) to get to 70.

When the Orioles traded Jeremy Guthrie for Jason Hammel (and Matt Lindstrom), I said " It's entirely possible that Hammel and Guthrie are similarly good pitcher... If the Hammel of old shows up in 2012, there's a good chance the Orioles will have actually upgraded their rotation." It's incredibly early, but so far the returns have been positive:

	Guthrie	Hammel
ERA	5.92	1.73
FIP	5.98	2.40
xFIP	5.69	2.74
K/9	1.9	8.7
BB/9	3.7	2.8
HR/9	1.5	0.4
fWAR	-0.2	0.9

Obviously Guthrie is unlikely to continue walking twice as many batters as he strikes out (especially since batters aren't really making any better contact against him than they used to). Hammel has looked really good so far though. Here's a rough update of his whiffs per year chart:

Year	Fastball	Slider	Curve	Change	Two-seamer	Overall
2009	12.7%	23.4%	46.8%	31.9%		21.5%
2010	11.7%	27.3%	29.7%	18.6%		17.5%
2011	10.4%	27.6%	26.2%	26.1%		16.8%
2012	29.5%	39.5%	28.6%	12.5%	16.9%	26.3%

You could argue that Hammel threw some two-seamers in 2009-11 too*, even if BrooksBaseball doesn't classify them that way. He's definitely going to that pitch often in 2012 though, as the average movement on all fastballs he's thrown has increased by around two inches of tail. And certainly no matter how you classify them, Hammel is throwing harder than he ever has in a season** (~93.5 mph) while also missing more bats with the pitch. On top of that, he's also getting a ton of groundballs; ~70% with the sinker and almost 62% overall.

* Actually it sounds like a new pitch for him - his four-seamer just happened to get a fair amount of sink sometimes.

* Normally, it looks like Hammel's velocity goes up over the course of the season, but it's starting out higher this year. It'll be interesting to see if he maintains it or - if not - which direction it goes.

The improved whiff rate on the slider is interesting because that's become Hammel's primary non-fastball offering this year:

Year	Fastball(s)	Slider	Curve+Change
2009	60%	15%	25%
2010	61%	19%	20%
2011	61%	17%	22%
2012	62%	24%	14%

Maybe it's a pitch-sequencing thing? Sinkers and sliders are supposed to go better together (more so than sinkers and curveballs or change-ups), so it's kind of neat to see the increased slider usage coinciding with the increased number of two-seamers.

It's very unlikely that Hammel will continue pitching at even close to this level - he's 3rd in the AL in ERA, 4th in FIP, and 4th in xFIP* - but he may just be this year's "JJ Hardy" and pitch at an above average clip like he did in '09-10, which would be pretty neat. Groundballs + strike-outs + good control is certainly a winning combo**.

* Jeremy Guthrie actually has the worst xFIP in the majors amongst qualified pitchers. Hope he turns things around.

** Pitchers in the majors with GB% over 55%, K/9 over 7.5, and BB/9 under 3:

Clayton Kershaw
Jason Hammel

Seems good.

I've got a post up at Camden Depot looking at how home run centric the Orioles' offense has been so far this season (answer: very): check it out.

For those near a radio tomorrow (well, later today) at 1:35, turn to 1090am to hear me talk some Orioles baseball on WBAL.

The Good:

• Brian Matusz had a rocky first inning, due largely to poor fastball command, but once he started to mix his pitches things turned around. The off-speed stuff looked good - almost like vintage Matusz - so there's progress being made. As the game went on, Matusz's velocity fell off (from 90-93 early to 88-91 later). He threw the curve over for strikes a couple times, and got 4 swings-and-misses with the slider (on 13 swings - 31% whiff rate) and 5 with the change (on 10 swings - 50% whiff rate). Even managed to throw 3 fastballs by Albert Pujols. In the first there were some hard hit balls, but after that balls were finding grass and the defense didn't help. Final line; 5 IP, 9 H, 6 R, (4 ER), 3 BB (1 IBB), 6 K. Matusz has now evened up his walks and strike-outs on the year (11-11).
• Nolan Reimold made one of those less-than-stellar defensive plays, whiffing on an attempted sliding catch. Made up for it at the plate though, going 3-5 with a three-run homer and a double.
• Nick Markakis singled twice and walked. Looked patient at the plate and served those pitches away to the opposite field, which is a bit more of what was going on the last few years (as opposed the driving the ball like he did to start the season).

The Bad:

• The defense was poor (three errors and some other misplays), and the offense didn't do a heck of a lot. Have seen a lot of this in recent years.

The Final:

The Orioles fall back into a tie for first in the East at 8-6 as they drop the first game of the series in Anaheim.

Another home run by Nolan Reimold (4th game in a row!) and one by JJ Hardy gave the O's their second win in the series against the White Sox yesterday. That guarantees them at least a split, and they'll get two chances to take the series.

The Good:

• Fantastic first inning by Tommy Hunter, as he struck out the side. For the game, he 7 whiffs (and a number of called strikes) on his breaking-balls. There were a number of cutters thrown as well that looked pretty good.
• Chris Davis AND Mark Reynolds made nice plays on defense. Really.
• Kevin Gregg was used in the correct role (team down by a lot), and managed not to give up a run despite allowing a hit and walking two.

The Bad:

• The rest of Hunter's innings, which totaled 4.2 IP, 9 H, 8 R, 4 BB, 5 K, 2 HR. He's now given up 6 home runs on the season, and his fastball is averaging just under 90 mph. Building-block! When Wada or Britton or whoever is ready to take a rotation spot, moving Hunter to the pen seems like it might be a good idea. They could use a long-man out there certainly.
• Jake Peavy pretty much completely shut down the O's offense, who had almost twice as many strike-outs (9) as base-runners (5 hits, 0 walks, 1 error).

The Final:

That was, let's say, not quite as good as the previous two games. More "usual" Orioles baseball. At least with the Blue Jays' loss, the O's retain control of first place in the AL East.

Maybe*. If he keeps hitting .344/.462/.750, then I like his chances to take that crown (as well as the MVP award – and maybe the Cy Young).

* Just want to make sure it's clear that the hot start is nice but only slightly helps Wieters' cause - he was already probably one of the best catchers in baseball, and the leap to the top would have been a relatively short one in any case.

Since the start of the 2011 season, Wieters leads all Major League catchers in fWAR with 5.9. Right behind him is a plus hitter who can’t catch all that well (Mike Napoli) and a plus catcher who’s probably not much better than an average hitter (Yadier Molina, though Yadi does have 3 home runs already this year). A little harder to find someone adding a lot of value on both sides of the ball, which is what it looks like Wieters is poised to do. 

The Gold Glove last year was legit, and when Wieters figures out whatever kink has been thrown into the gears this season as far accuracy is concerned (if there is one), he should once again be a weapon behind the plate.Taking things back to 2010, he's first in Defensive Runs Saved on steals. And Wieters is the second highest rated catcher according to the Fan Scouting Report (to Molina - who he actually narrowly beat last year). Of catchers with at leas 1,000 innings the last three seasons, he's allowed the second fewest passed balls (3). The pitch-framing data is somewhat less positive, but still has Wieters as above-average in that area as well. I think it’s fair to say Wieters is one of – if not quite* – the best defensive players at his position.

* He probably has a good claim on the best as far as arm + pitch-blocking goes though.

Offensively, the output that many expected right when he was called up may finally be appearing. It’s still very early (and I wasn’t exactly confident in major advances over 2011 before the season started), but signs have been positive. Wieters’ strike-out to walk ratio so far this year is 4-7 (that is, almost twice as many of the good one). He’s shown a more patient approach at the plate, and cut down on the number of pitches he swings at that our out of the strike-zone. He’s putting the bat on the ball when it’s in the zone though, hitting the ball with some authority (not only the 4 home runs and a double, but a fair number of line-drives that have helped up his BABIP to .292). Having a catcher that isn't a hole in the line-up is one thing - having a catcher batting in the middle of it is another.

Obviously Wieters isn’t likely to continue this pace and hit 60+ home runs this year, but if the plate discipline is a real improvement then I could potentially see him hitting something like .300/.375/.500 this year (or in the near future) with a bit of batted ball luck (and not even a super crazy amount). That’s a top 15-20 hitter (in all of baseball) type line. From a catcher. A Gold Glove catcher. Which is about the time the conversation moves from best player at his position to best player (full stop). (With the playing-time limitation and injury risks associated with the position, I highly doubt one could make a really convincing argument for the case – but there could at least be some conversations about it.)

Even if he doesn’t hit that well though – and I don’t expect him to, but wouldn’t be surprised by it – a consistent .350-.360 wOBA (instead of ~.385) is usually going to be good enough for top 5 or so among catchers. Add the plus defense and that’s around a 5 win player. Number of catchers who averaged 5 wins a year from 2009 to 2011*? One – Joe Mauer (with 15 total fWAR on the nose).

* I just picked a recent stretch. Breaking it up into a series of two-year periods;

Players with 10+ fWAR over the period	Years
-	2010-11
Joe Maur	2009-10
Mauer	2008-09
Russell Martin	2007-08
Jorge Posada	2006-07
-	2005-06
-	2004-05
Posada + Javy Lopez	2003-04
Posada	2002-03
-	2001-02
Mike Piazza	2000-01
Piazza + Ivan Rodriguez	1999-00
Piazza + Rodriguez + Jason Kendall	1998-99
Piazza + Rodriguez + Kendall	1997-98
Piazza + Rodriguez	1996-97
Piazza	1995-96
Piazza	1994-95
Piazza + Chris Hoiles (!)	1993-94
Hoiles + Darren Daulton	1992-93
Mickey Tettleton	1991-92

Things I take from this : (1) Mike Piazza was really freakin’ good in his first 10 seasons, and (2) combining for 10 wins over two years is pretty darn impressive for a catcher. There are a number of guys with a fair chance at it for 2011-12, but betting on Wieters to be the one isn't especially foolhardy.

The O's road-trip started out on the right foot, and begin a four-game set in Chicago as the middle leg in their road trip.

The Good:

• Jake Arrieta was once again very impressive. His fastball was 93-96, and he threw it by people (5 total whiffs). The two-seamer showed some good movement (there was one in particular the tailed back over the black on the outside corner at 96 mph for a called strike three). He threw the breaking-balls for strikes, and spun a few wicked sliders  off the plate to get guys swinging. Final line; 6.2 IP, 7 H, 4 R (2 ER), 1 BB, 7 K, 1 HR.
• Matt Lindstrom and Pedro Strop combined for 3.2 scoreless innings, with the latter throwing sliders for strikes (and ball when needed), blowing fastballs by guess at 98 and hitting the edges at 97 (he K'ed 3). Strop's probably the team's second best reliever, which is why I wouldn't have had him pitch his second inning with the big lead to save him for the rest of the series.
• Matt Wieters did a nice job at the plate, drawing two walks and hitting his 3rd homer of the year. Also, his 4th homer - a grand slam in the top of the 10th (battling back from an 0-2 count, no less). About 10 second before that, I said "Would love to see Wieters make this 10-4 so I can relax." Ask and ye shall receive, I guess.
• Mark Reynolds walked and double in a run (the O's only hit with runners in scoring position), and didn't make a misplay in the field (which is news enough that it deserves a mention). Also crushed a ball to the wall in dead-center to lead-off the 10th that the outfielder missed and resulted in Reynolds getting to third (and subsequently scoring the winning run).
• Nolan Reimold, who pinch-hit later in the game, hit his third 9th inning home run in his last three games. Then drove in another run in the 10th with a single. Maybe he just hit well since he was rested from sitting on the bench for most of the game.
• Adam Jones had a pair of hits, including his 4th home run of the year - to tie the game with two outs in the top of the 9th.
• Despite striking out 15 times, the several Orioles had some nice plate appearances on the night (even if they did do an awful job of converting runners in scoring position into points on the board until extras).

The Bad:

• Endy Chavez once again batted first. He went 0-3 with a strike-out and left 5 men on base (which is pretty impressive, since he only had two chances up when men could be on base).
• Nick Johnson still has his batting eye, but I'm not sure he can really hit anymore. Only took a few swings, and didn't do anything when he put the bat on the ball. Struck out twice looking (though one was a ball).
• Chris Davis went 3-5 at the plate, with a double and 2 K's. He chased the ball out of the zone, as he is wont to do (watching him hit reminds me of Vlad from last year - even when he gets a hit, the at bat is sometimes painful). Also, he kind of screwed Arrieta over with his defense in the 7th inning, completely missing a throw to first on a bunt (just completely whiffed on it), and then could handle a second throw to first on what should have been a double play ball. And the O's say he's an above average first-baseman?
• Wieters did less of a good job behind the plate though, with two errors on throws to second. It seems like his accuracy with the throwing on stolen bases has been a little off this year. Maybe he's turning from Pudge Rodriguez into Mike Piazza?

The Final:

Insane game. For a long time it looked like Jake Arrieta's nice start would be wasted, but then - sparked by Nolan Reimold, mind you - things turned. The terrifying lows, the dizzying highs, the creamy middles - Orioles baseball! O's move into sole possession of first in the East at 6-4 (only 64 more to 70).