I only got to see the tail end of the first two games, but the Orioles taking the series in Toronto was both unexpected (given they were something like 5-290 there recently) and awesome. Nolan Reimold went 5-10 with two doubles and two homers (both in the top of the 9th - clutch!) in the O's two wins (and then sat for game three as Endy Chavez went 0-4 out of the lead-off spot - why?!?*). Adam Jones also homered twice in the series (there were 14 hit between the two teams), though the O's followed his lead and walked a grand total of 4 times in the three games.

* Apparently he has a minor leg thing, which explains why he didn't play but not why Chavez is hitting first.

Wilson Betemit and Mark Reynolds flip-flopped between DH and third, but that didn't stop the fielding woes as Betemit made two errors in the series (leading to a pair of unearned runs). Between Betemit, Reynolds, Davis, and Flaherty, there's only one passable third-baseman and it's the guy who probably can't hit at all in the majors (Flaherty). All season it'll be a "grass is greener" situation, where whoever isn't playing at third "has to be better than what they have out there". But no, they all kind of suck. Have to take the bad to get the (hopefully) good they provide at the plate.

Tommy Hunter got rocked in game one, giving up four home runs (luckily that only lead to 5 runs, and the bullpen held the Jays there). Jason Hammel only gave up one homer in his five innings in game two. Brian Matusz split the difference with two longballs allowed (along with 4 BB's), in giving up 5 runs in 5.2 IP. At least he K'd 4 this time (and several people told me he didn't look that bad - just didn't have fastball command). Kevin Gregg apparently let two of Matusz's runners score, and then three more of his own (while recording one out). Maybe he shouldn't have been brought into a 3-2 game with runners on base (the O's were at ~27% to win when he entered, ~2% when he left)? I might have Gregg be the guy who comes in when the game's 9-2 already, instead of the one who makes it 9-2.

In any case, the O's won the series. They're tied for first place in the AL East at 5-4. And that even reflects their level of play so far fairly well!

The O's lost game one of this series handily, game two in - not quite heart-breaking - but hard to take fashion, and have to deal with CC Sabathia in game three.

The Good:

• Things did not get off to a particularly auspicious start for Jake Arrieta, as he gave up a two-run homer to the second batter of the game. He settled down after that though, and looked mighty impressive once again. The fastball was 92-95 and he did a pretty nice job spotting it. If we're counting four-seamers and two-seamers together, Arrieta actually threw 6 fastballs by Yankee batters. He threw the curve and slider over for strikes, and get 3 and 2 whiffs on those pitches, respectively. New York got the ball in the air a fair bit against Arrieta, but overall it was a quality outing. Final line: 6.2 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 HR. (The fourth run allowed was a runner who the pen let score.)
• Kevin Gregg (!) pitched a perfect (!!) 9th inning, including getting a called strike three by throwing a 3-2 change-up right on the outside corner. He should have gotten the win, because the Orioles should have scored in the bottom of the ninth.
• JJ Hardy picked up a couple of hits - and they weren't even home runs! - and worked a walk in the bottom of the 9th.
• Mark Reynolds doubled and walked twice at the plate (and K'ed). Also, didn't make an error in the field (though maybe because his limited range kept him from reaching a ball he would have ended up booting.)

The Bad:

• The Orioles did not score in the bottom of the 9th though, as Robert Andino struck out waving at three pitches out of the zone and then - with the base loaded and two outs - Adam Jones K'ed swinging as well. The third-baseman was playing way back, and any decent bunt probably brings Nolan Reimold at third in to score the winning run (it wouldn't have been the first time Jones walked things off with a bunt either). Anyway... the O's don't score and then the real Kevin Gregg comes out. Three hits, including a two-run homer.
• Wilson Betemit against tough lefties might not be the best match-up; 0-3 with 3 K's against Sabathia, and then a groundout versus a righty.

The Final:

Things looked bleak early, but the O's did a nice job making Sabathia work (even though Reynolds is the only one who drew a walk against him) and clawed their way back. Like yesterday though, a battle of the bullpens in extra innings favored the Yankees. So the sweep is complete (the O's struck out 38 times in the series). After the off day, the Birds go up to Tornto with a 3-3 record.

I didn't get a chance to see Wei-Yin Chen make his Major League debut yesterday - I got home for the bottom of the 9th, so at least I was treated to the extra-innings loss - but I've heard some complementary things about it. Chen's line on the night: 5.2 IP, 7 H, 4 R (2 ER - thanks Mark Reynolds), 1 BB, 6 K, 1 HR (to Derek Jeter, leading off the game). The strike-out figure looks impressive, but I'm not sure exactly what to think given that there were a total of 30 K's in the game (16 by the O's, 14 by the Yankees).

Looking at the Pitch/FX for the game:



Chen's four-seam fastball was 88-92 with some movement, but nothing too extraordinary - seems like an average-ish pitch. He did get a couple swings and misses, and pounded the strike-zone with it though.

The change-up also had decent movement (though a few of them really tailed), and some good results - of the 8 that were swung at, 3 were missed, 2 were fouled off, and 2 resulted in groundball. Chen did a pretty good job working that pitch down and away to righties.

The slider didn't have a great deal of break (didn't seem to drop or cut all that much), but got 3 whiffs on 9 swings. It was his primary off-speed pitch to lefties (he threw a few to righties, but was more fastball-change-up).

There were also a handful of curveballs mixed in; slower than the slider by close to 10 mph and with more drop (though not an ungodly amount). The one batter who actually tried to hit the pitch did not succeed (looks like Chen largely tried to waste the pitch low and out of the zone when he threw it).

So that seems like a reasonable mix of pitches, that a pitcher with good control can do something with. Almost (old) Matusz-like, even (not sure having them back-to-back in the rotation makes a great deal of sense). Being able to (mostly) handle a line-up like New York is solid (though we'll see if he can do it again when they get additional looks at him). Chen looks like he could be pretty darn good as #5 starters go - we'll need to wait to see if there's anything more there (I look forward to actually seeing it live).

The Orioles are not expected to get much production from first-base this year (again).

Totally unrelated news... 26 year-old first-baseman Brandon Allen was just put on waivers by the Oakland A's. Allen, a big left-handed swinger, doesn't have a great deal of major league playing time; in 374 career plate appearances he's hit just .205/.291/.375 and struck out almost 36% of the time. He does have 11 home runs and a solid 11% walk rate though, and his career line at Triple-A is .286/.401/.555.

Compare this to Chris Davis with his .252/.301/.447 major league line and .337/.397/.609 numbers at Triple-A. In the highest minor league level, Davis has a small edge in home runs (33 per 600 PA to 32 per 600 PA) and a large edge in BABIP (around 85 points), but worse plate discipline (a 24% strike-out rate versus 21% is close, but a 9% walk rate versus 15% is not). Additionally, just to note it; Allen has hit about as well against righties in the majors as Davis has (93 wRC+ to 95 wRC+), but much worse against lefties (18 wRC+ to 75 wRC+) due largely to a .213 BABIP against them (while Davis' BABIP is only 14 points lower than against righties, at .325).

Depending on how much of the BABIP difference is "real" - I'd guess a fair bit of it, but not the whole thing - one could argue either way about who has had the better numbers. Davis has struck out less in the majors, but I'm not sure that would continue given their minor league numbers, Allen's better plate discipline, and Allen's better major league contact rate (70% to 67%). 

I'm not saying the Orioles should definitely pick Allen up, but I'd have more faith in him turning into a decent major leaguer than Davis. Also, can't go back in time but, claiming Allen for free > trading for Davis.

Reversing the attendance downturn after Opening Day with the infusion of New York fans.

The Good:

• Matt Wieters might actually be the best catcher in baseball right now. He hits his second home run of the year, over the scoreboard; doubled to the opposite field; singled through the infield shift, and then to the outfield on a line; and threw a runner* out on the bases. I was hoping for the triple to complete the cycle - and, remember, Wieters first Major League hit was a triple against Justin Verlander - but it was not to be.

* It was on a terrible double steal. Two on (Jeter at second), one out, 3-2 on A-Rod. Why would you start the runners? (A) It's Matt Wieters. He's going to get you. (B) It's Brian Matusz. He's not a groundball pitcher by any means. It's almost more likely you'll induce a double play by starting the runners, off of a line-drive or flyball. But Joe Girardi called it, and the strike-em-out, throw-em-out double play got Matusz out of that jam.

The Bad:

• Brian Matusz was awful. His pitching motion looked inconsistent; his control was almost non-existent; and everything was up in the zone:

At least his fastball was 89-92, and his off-speed stuff looked alright. And he somehow managed not to give up a home run. That's something, I guess. Final line: 4 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 4 BB, 1 K. In the game preview, I said that I wasn't sure it was a great idea to have Matusz make his first start of the year against the Yankees. Not sure if things would have been better versus the Twins, but I'm thinking they just might have been.

• If the O's had an actual long-man - like, say, Alfredo Simon - then I would have had him ready to come in in the 4th, when it was still 1-1 (because Matusz just looked that bad - it was only a matter of time until the Yankees got to him). But they don't. Which doesn't seem like the best thing when you have a crappy rotation (first three games not withstanding).
• Also in the game preview, I said that Ivan Nova could put guys away with his breaking-stuff, and if kept the ball down in the zone then he could get a few O's chasing balls for strike three. Nova on the night: 7 K's, 4 swinging at breaking-balls out of the zone (and at least one looking at a hook).
• Darren O'Day relieved Matusz on the mound, but didn't provide much relief for the viewers: 1.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 1 HR. Not the most auspicious Orioles debut.
• Pedro Strop was brought out to keep the deficit at 6-2 in the top of the 9th. He did well - three easy groundouts - but why was he used? The game is pretty much lost, and he's one of the team's best pitchers. Better to have him for both of the next two games, possible for more than one inning if need be, no?
• The O's picked up 12 non-home run hits on the night, including 6 doubles (two by Andino, one by each of Wieters, Reynolds, Betemit, and Davis). These lead to exactly one run scored (the other was on Wieters' solo homer).

The Final:

Back to reality, I guess. O's lose, in what was a pretty miserable game to watch. Can still take the series though.

With New York coming to town, the O's face a little bit more of a challenge than they did with the Twins - I guess I'd be OK with them taking 2 of 3 instead of a sweep.

The Yankees:

	Pos	Batting	UZR	fWAR
Derek Jeter	SS	.231/.286/.231	0	0.0
Nick Swisher	RF	.273/.429/.636	0	0.2
Robinson Cano	2B	.231/.286/.308	0	0.0
Alex Rodriguez	DH	.300/.500/.500	0	0.2
Mark Teixeira	1B	.111/.385/.222	0	0.0
Curtis Granderson	CF	.167/.231/.333	0	0.0
Andrew Jones	LF	.333/.333/.333	0	0.0
Russell Martin	C	.000/.444/.000	0	0.0
Eduardo Nunez	3B	.333/.333/.333	0	0.0

The Yankees' position players this year have combined for a total of 0.4 fWAR so far (or just slightly less than Nick Markakis). Mostly it's been a low BABIP (.232) and lack of pop (only 2 homers), though they have walked more times than they've struck out (and that's against a very good Rays rotation). Even with a not seemingly impressive bottom of the order, this line-up is very dangerous.

Ivan Nova (2011 stats):

K/9	BB/9	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	fWAR
5.3	3.1	52.7%	3.70	4.01	4.16	2.7

Nova gets some sink on his fastball, as you could guess by the impressive groundball rate. At 92-93 mph it's not your standard sinker (not that it dips thatmuch), but he isn't going to be blowing it by too many people. Nova uses the pitch a lot, but if he gets ahead in the count he can put people away with his breaking-balls (the slider is less used, but had a 43% whiff rate last year - the curve is a pretty big hook, but was only at 24%). If he keeps the ball towards the bottom of the strike-zone, I can see the O's having a tougher day with multiple batters waving at pitches out of the zone for strike three. If the Birds are patient though, and put a good swing on anything Nova leaves up in the zone, then they should be able to put 4-5 runs on the board.

The Orioles (2012 stats):

	Pos	Batting	UZR	fWAR
Nolan Reimold	LF	.222/.222/.222	0	-0.1
J.J. Hardy	SS	.200/.333/.500	0	0.2
Nick Markakis	RF	.556/.667/1.444	0	0.5
Adam Jones	CF	.333/.333/.667	0	0.2
Matt Wieters	C	.111/.273/.444	0	0.1
Mark Reynolds	3B	.333/.333/.333	0	-0.1
Wilson Betemit	DH	.286/.286/.429	0	0.0
Chris Davis	1B	.167/.167/.167	0	-0.1
Robert Andino	2B	.333/.400/.333	0	0.1

.275/.353/.495 as a team is none too shabby, though it would be nice to see Nolan do a bit more at the top of the line-up - he's not chasing a lot of pitches, but hasn't drawn a walk yet.

Brian Matusz (2011 stats):

K/9	BB/9	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	fWAR
6.9	4.3	27.9%	10.69	7.66	5.22	-1.0

Matusz's xFIP was a god-awful 5.22 last year, and it was less than halfof his ERA. Yikes. That sort of performance makes people doubt your ability to even pitch in the big leagues again, and just not getting shelled looked like it would count as a win for him this year. Matusz's velocity was up from 88-89 in 2011 to the low-mid 90's in Spring Training, where he posted a sparkling 22-3 strike-out to walk ratio in 24.2 IP. That seems to have raised some expectations going into the season.

I'm not sure sending Matusz out there against the Yankees in his first start is the best idea; he does match up better as a lefty against their line-up (as does Chen, going tomorrow), but easing him back in to the majors against the Twins (say, Arrieta-Hammel-Matusz-Hunter-Chen) might have been good. This is one area where the manager does his behind the scenes managery stuff though.

With the series win already in their pocket, the O's went for the sweep in what seemed like a favorable match-up.

The Good:

• Jason Hammel. Wow. Groundout after groundout after easy groundout. Takes a no-hitter into the 8th inning of his Orioles debut (while facing the minimum, thanks to a pair of double plays). The heater had some giddy-up (93-94, 3 whiffs) and his breaking-balls looked good (4 whiffs on the slider, and got the curve in there for strikes). Hammel induced 14 groundballs to just 4 flyball, which is the kind of thing that will serve him well in Camden Yards. Final line: 8 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 5 K.
• Jim Johnson picked up the easy save; two groundouts and a K.
• JJ Hardy hit his first home run of the season, giving each of the O's 2-5 hitters at least one longball on the year.
• Nick Markakis didn't homer, but he did work a couple walks on the day. 
• Wilson Betemit, benched against a lefty yesterday, faced one out of the Twins' pen and almost hit one out (settled for a two-run double).
• Adam Jones singled twice, and then stole a base on the front end of a double steal with Nick Johnson (who had been hit by a pitch). That was Johnson's first steal since 2009, and gives him more stolen bases on the year than hits and walks combined. Johnson got hit again in his next at bat (and miraculously he isn't going on the DL), but was thrown out trying to take second on a wild pitch (perhaps the earlier steal gave him a false impression of his speed).

The Bad:

• Buck had Kevin Gregg warming up in the 8th when Hammel allowed the base-runners. The thought of him entering a close game with runners on base is somewhat terrifying, but perhaps Buck just wanted to provide Hammel with some motivation ("you better bear down or your lead is likely to vanish").

The Final:

The Orioles get the sweep in impressive fashion, with the starting pitchers going a combined 22 IP, 10 H, 3 R (1 ER), 6 BB, 12 K. Now they'll face a real challenge, with the Yankees coming to town. Three wins down, 67 to go to get to 70.