The Orioles have already won their first series of 2012, and go for the sweep today.

The Twins (2012 stats):

	Pos	Batting	UZR	fWAR
Denard Span	CF	.375/.375/.375	0	0.1
Jamey Carroll	SS	.000/.125/.000	0	-0.1
Joe Mauer	CF	.167/.375/.167	0	0.0
Justin Morneau	DH	.375/.375/.500	0	0.1
Josh Willingham	LF	.286/.375/.714	0	0.1
Ryan Doumit	C	.000/.000/.000	0	-0.1
Sean Burroughs	3B	.000/.000/.000	0	0.0
Luke Hughes	2B	.223/.289/.338 ('11)	3	0.4
Ben Revere	RF	.250/.250/.250	0	0.0

The Twins have not done much in the first two games this year; .200/.268/.262 as a team with only two extra-base hits (or, as many as Nick Markakis had on Opening Day). The 10-5 strike-out to walk ratio isn't the worst, at least.

Anthony Swarzak (2011 stats):

K/9	BB/9	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	fWAR
4.9	2.3	38.2%	4.32	4.04	4.67	1.0

Swarzak comes from a long line of right-handed strike-throwers in the Minnesota system. He has to be careful with his control, because his stuff is not particularly good - even if he gets ahead in the count, he doesn't really have an out pitch. The fastball is 90-92, and neither the change nor the curve have a ton of movement, so it's not surprising he doesn't miss many bats.

The Orioles (2012 stats):

	Pos	Batting	UZR	fWAR
Endy Chavez	LF	.310/.323/.426 ('11)	2	1.5
J.J. Hardy	SS	.167/.375/.167	0	0.0
Nick Markakis	RF	.714/.750/1.857	0	0.5
Adam Jones	CF	.250/.250/.750	0	0.1
Matt Wieters	C	.200/.429/.800	0	0.2
Nick Johnson	DH	.000/.000/.000	0	-0.1
Wilson Betemit	3B	.333/.333/.333	0	0.0
Chris Davis	1B	.000/.000/.000	0	-0.1
Robert Andino	2B	.429/.429/.429	0	0.1

Endy Chavez has a career .313 OBP - only Davis and Andino are worse, and they're rightfully batting 8-9. It doesn't matter that Chavez is fast, and it doesn't matter that he hit .444 this spring - he should not be batting lead-off. The team does not need a "lead-off type" hitter in the line-up - they should be giving the most at bats to someone who can actually hit. Put Betemit (.336 career OBP) or Johnson (.401!) in the first spot. Or just move everyone up a slot (Hardy-Markakis-etc.). But don't bat Chavez lead-off.

It is unfortunate see Mark Reynolds on the bench against a guy in Swarzak who he would seem to be good against (his stuff doesn't miss bats and he should be around the zone). I assume it has to do with him fouling a ball off his leg yesterday (though it doesn't sound serious), and not his atrocious defense. Not that O's fans will really get a reprieve in that area (Reynolds: -11 UZR/150 career, Betemit: -14 UZR/150). Against an opposing pitcher that isn't that good (and is a right-handed), I'd consider starting Ryan Flaherty at third instead.

Jason Hammel (2011 stats):

K/9	BB/9	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	fWAR
5.0	3.6	43.9%	4.76	4.83	4.65	1.0

Hammel's stuff should be good enough to strike out more than 5 batters per nine, so if he can get his control back to where it was in 2009-10 (~2.2 BB/9) then I think he could make up for the loss of Jeremy Guthrie by himself. Not that Spring Training stats mean much, but he did strike out a batter per ninning with a 2.7 BB/9.

A win on Opening Day is standard. A win in game two isn't so much. And the pitching match-up didn't necessarily favor the O's. But that's why they play the games.

The Good:

• Tommy Hunter only got two swings and misses on the day and his control was spotty at times, but it didn't end up mattering much. Generally you'd expect more than 6 hits when so many balls are put in play, but sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. Final line: 7 IP, 6 H, 2 R (0 ER), 1 BB, 3 K. I don't know that I've ever seen a pitcher have more strike-outs than whiffs before.
• Nick Markakis remains on pace to hit 162 home runs this year, this time hitting it out to right-center. He also had a pair of singles.
• Adam Jones got to Francisco Liriano early, taking him out to right-field for his first home run of the year.
• Matt Wieters completed the middle-of-the-order power display, going deep two batters after Nick. And he walked twice! 
• Ronny Paulino got put in at DH for match-up purposes, and that worked pretty well; 4-4 with a double. 
• Robert Andino added a couple of hits out of the nine-hole, making practically the whole stretch of line-up dangerous on the night.

The Bad:

• In my game preview, I mentioned Hunter maybe getting hurt with a Mark Reynolds misplay leading to a big inning. 7th inning; Reynolds lets the first runner aboard with an error. Two hits later and the bases are loaded with no outs and Hunter has been removed for Pedro Strop (who managed to get out of things with only two runs scoring on fielder's choices).

The Final:

Orioles starters have now pitched 14 consecutive innings with out giving up an earned run to start the year. If they keep that going, I think they can win a few games. Two down, 68 to go.

The Orioles picked up their usual Opening Day win yesterday, and are tied for first place in the AL East. Going wire-to-wire is probably going to require a second victory today, so they'll need to make that happen to keep the dream alive.

The Twins (2011 stats):

	Pos	Batting	UZR	fWAR
Denard Span	CF	.264/.328/.359	9	2.2
Jamey Carroll	SS	.290/.359/.347	-5	2.2
Joe Mauer	CF	.287/.360/.368	1	1.6
Justin Morneau	DH	.227/.285/.333	4	-0.3
Josh Willingham	LF	.246/.332/.477	-5	2.1
Chris Parmelee	1B	.355/.443/.592	1	1.3
Danny Valencia	3B	.246/.294/.383	-6	0.5
Ben Revere	RF	.267/.310/.309	10	2.0
Alexi Casilla	2B	.260/.322/.368	0	1.4

Maybe Ryan Doumit's misplay on Nick Markakis' triple yesterday has something to do with Ben Revere being in right today.

Francisco Liriano:

K/9	BB/9	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	fWAR
7.5	5.0	48.6%	5.09	4.54	4.52	1.0

Liriano still has that killer slider and a great change, and though his fastball isn't overpowering, the sinker does let him keep the ball on the ground pretty well. The question is how good his control will be - if he's hitting his spots (and he did have a 33-5 strike-out to walk ratio in 27 Spring Training innings), then it could be a rough day for the O's.

The Orioles (2011 stats):

	Pos	Batting	UZR	fWAR
Nolan Reimold	LF	.247/.328/.453	1	1.5
J.J. Hardy	SS	.269/.310/.491	11	4.8
Nick Markakis	RF	.284/.351/.406	-5	2.2
Adam Jones	CF	.280/.319/.466	-9	2.9
Matt Wieters	C	.262/.328/.450	12	5.0
Mark Reynolds	3B	.221/.323/.483	-28	0.3
Nick Johnson	1B	.201/.316/.332 (AAA)
Ronny Paulino	DH	.268/.312/.351	-4	0.2
Robert Andino	2B	.263/.327/.344	2	1.8

As I expected, Chris Davis moves to the bench in favor of Nick Johnson against the lefty. Johnson actually has a career reverse platoon split, and even regressed (staying with his career .370 wOBA) it's .373 against righties and .361 against lefties (so, pretty minor). Chris Davis has pretty much normal platoon numbers (.320 vs. LHP, .332 vs. RHP) while Wilson Betemit has big ones (.299 vs. LHP, .350 vs. RHP), but when you regress it favors the latter (who is a switch-hitter): .301 vs. .328 for Davis and .321 vs. .343 for Betemit.

It might even be worth playing Endy Chavez, actually. With Hunter on the mound and the Twins' better hitters being left-handed, the O's left-fielder could see some work (so upgrading from Reimold to Chavez makes some sense). Plus, Chavez doesn't have the biggest regressed platoon splits either (.283 vs. .298) - he is just a poor hitter in general (and so should not be anywhere near the top of the line-up, regardless of his speed). I think it's actually close.

Ronny Paulino DH'ing is a little surprising, given that he's the back-up catcher. He does crush lefites though (relatively speaking): .373 wOBA career against them, versus just .279 against righties (regressed it's .333 vs. .298). That probably is the best option as far as the line-up is concerned. Not sure who the 3rd catcher is; Robert Andino or Ryan Flaherty maybe?

Tommy Hunter:

K/9	BB/9	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	fWAR
4.8	1.6	41.0%	4.68	4.48	4.28	0.8

If Hunter's increased velocity from last year carries forward, he might be able to get that strike-out rate up a little. Doesn't have good enough stuff to miss bats consistently though, so batters are less forgiving than against Liriano (who has to sometimes get things in the zone, vs. Hunter, who has to not only throw strikes but quality ones). The O's defense is going to have to be on top of it's game, because a Mark Reynolds misplay or Adam Jones not getting back on a ball could lead to a big inning.

So, maybe Dylan Bundy should have been started above low-A ball. In his pro baseball debut, for the Delmarva Shorebirds, Bundy pitched 3 perfect frames (they're trying to limit his innings). He struck out 6, and apparently threw 21 out of 21 pitches* for strikes (that's 100%, which seems pretty good). Even though he's coming from high school, he's already 19 and is more advanced than your average high schooler. I don't think it'll be too long before Bundy moves up, maybe even hitting Double-A early enough to get a fair number of starts there this year. I'm not generally a fan of picking pitchers high in the draft (if there are comparable position players around), but if it works out it's pretty awesome.

In other top O's prospects news, Manny Machado homered on the first pitch he saw for Bowie and then added a single and a steal. Good day for the organization.

* It was pointed out that that means the 6 K's were on 3 pitches each, and the other three outs were each on one pitch. Seems unlikely - the count is probably off. Or Dylan Bundy is made of magic.

Opening Day!

The Good:

• Jake Arrieta was tremendous (by O's standards - he really was good though). The fastball and sinker were 93-96; the curve was a real hammer (got two swings and misses, plus a few in there for called strikes); and the slider was almost a cutter (unlike in previous years), thrown hard at 86-92 with less break (two whiffs as well, plus back-doored one for a strike-out looking). The control wavered a couple times, but he only gave up one free pass. And he kept the ball on the ground to boot, fielding five all by himself (including starting a double play). Final line: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 4 K.
• Jim Johnson picked up the save, sitting 93-94 with that big moving sinker. Made things interesting with a walk and a single after striking out the first batter he faced (swinging at a nice change-up), but got the job done.
• JJ Hardy did a nice job working the count and drawing a walk his first time up, and came around to score the O's first run of the season (also singled and scored again later, and drew a second walk).
• That run was scored on an opposite-field home run by Nick Markakis. It was Nick's first opposite field homer since 2008; he tends to just serve pitches away into left for singles (perhaps because swinging with more authority could lead to more whiffs/K's), so it was nice to see him really put something into that swing. Then, his next time up, he drew a walk! Then he worked a full count, and drove the pitch to the warning track for a triple! (Nick had a game last year with a double, homer, and walk, so this isn't exactly unprecedented. But still awesome!)

The Bad:

• Troy Patton was brought in to face the middle of the Twins' order in the 9th; he walked Mauer and then struck out Morneau (though his control was still spotty). Then he was left in to face Josh Willingham (which didn't sound like a great match-up to me, though Willingham doesn't have huge platoon splits) who hit a two-run homer.
• Only three base-runners other than Hardy and Markakis (double by Jones, singles by Betemit and Andino).
• Mark Reynolds was a little adventurous in the field; he made a nice play on the first ball hit to him, but the second one went by and the third was fielded but thrown off-track (and great dive by Chris Davis while somehow keeping his foot on the bag prevented the error).

The Final:

Great game. Between Arrieta and the early Markakis homer, the O's had things more or less locked up all the way (didn't even sweat the 9th). One win down, 69 to go to get to 70 for the first time since 2006.

There were games in Japan, a game in the garish new stadium in Miami, and games all around the country yesterday - now Opening Day has finally come to Baltimore. The team's going to be bad (by WAR I think I had them coming out to 72 wins; but 69-72 seems like a reasonable range for expectantions), but watching baseball played by a bad major league team is still better than most things.

The Twins (2011 stats):

	Pos	Batting	UZR	fWAR
Denard Span	CF	.264/.328/.359	9	2.2
Jamey Carroll	SS	.290/.359/.347	-5	2.2
Joe Mauer	CF	.287/.360/.368	1	1.6
Justin Morneau	DH	.227/.285/.333	4	-0.3
Josh Willingham	LF	.246/.332/.477	-5	2.1
Ryan Doumit	RF	.303/.353/.477	-2	1.6
Danny Valencia	3B	.246/.294/.383	-6	0.5
Chris Parmelee	1B	.355/.443/.592	1	1.3
Alexi Casilla	2B	.260/.322/.368	0	1.4

Maybe not quite this week, but I hope Justin Morneau can re-establish himself as a good major leaguer again. Also, given the contract Minnesota gave him, that Joe Mauer can get back closer to star level. Not that that'll be enough to make them competitive, probably, but it would be nice for baseball.

Carl Pavano:

K/9	BB/9	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	fWAR
4.1	1.6	50.6%	4.30	4.10	4.14	2.9

Pavano isn't a hard thrower (89-90 with the fastball), his sinker (his primary heater) doesn't miss bats, and his off-speed stuff is merely OK. But he can spot his pitches and doesn't give out free passes or a ton of long-balls. I could see the O's not doing much against him most of the game, but having an inning where they string together 4-5 hits with a double or two mixed in to put some runs on the board.

The Orioles (2011 stats):

	Pos	Batting	UZR	fWAR
Nolan Reimold	LF	.247/.328/.453	1	1.5
J.J. Hardy	SS	.269/.310/.491	11	4.8
Nick Markakis	RF	.284/.351/.406	-5	2.2
Adam Jones	CF	.280/.319/.466	-9	2.9
Matt Wieters	C	.262/.328/.450	12	5.0
Wilson Betemit	DH	.285/.343/.452	-9	1.0
Mark Reynolds	3B	.221/.323/.483	-28	0.3
Chris Davis	1B	.266/.305/.402	-1	-0.1
Robert Andino	2B	.263/.327/.344	2	1.8

That's a decent enough line-up, though there's no one particularly great (or even very good, one could say) hitter. The defense is maybe close to average as well, excluding Reynolds (who should be somewhere between "bad" and "please hide all his gloves so he has to DH"). I don't love Chris Davis being in there instead of Nick Johnson (from a one game perspective), since Davis seems more apt to be taken advantage of by Pavano (who isn't very likely to give him something good to hit) as opposed to Johnson (who can at least force Pavano to throw a strike). Nolan Reimold leading off is nice though (but I'd flip Hardy and Markakis).

Jake Arrieta:

K/9	BB/9	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	fWAR
7.0	4.4	45.7%	5.05	5.34	4.52	0.2

Arrieta's stuff is good enough that he should be able to maintain an average-ish strike-out rate, so if his control comes around (he did have a 3.6 BB/9 in April last year), he could be a #3 type pitcher. He'll need to be careful with the middle of the Twins' line-up, throwing strikes but not leaving too much in the middle of the plate. Even with a few walks, I think he'll be OK if he can keep the ball in the yard though.

The Orioles held an event today honoring the 20th anniversary of the park at Camden Yards, showing off some of the new additions for 2012. They were nice enough to invite me (so that I could estimate the deliciousness above replacement of the new food, I assume). The weather was fantastic, and seeing the green grass and the stands and the scoreboard and whatnot was great - my excitement for Opening Day was cranked up to at least a 6.

As I was waiting to be let in (outside), I heard a deep voice behind me; turned around and was face to mustache with Fred Manfra.

Rick Demspey was there, open to discussing his restaurant (Dempsey's) opening up out behind the flag court sometime soon. We were invited to try the beef ribs with mashed potatoes and fried onions. When I went over to the table, there were three plates of it sitting out and I took one - and was stopped by the server. They were just for show - we actually got to try the fresh and warmed up version (which was pretty good), and were asked to submit a name for it (they're going to select a submission for the signature offering - no ideas myself, but I didn't think "Rick Dempsey's _________" would be appropriate, given the relative fanciness of the dish). Also, someone told us if we were going to tweet about it, we should use the hashtags #likeit or #loveit. Maybe I'm behind the times, but it's a liitle off-putting being told to hashtag things by a human being in person (sort of like the idea of your mom being on Facebook). Doing a quick search, I don't see anything hashtagged with #likeit or #loveit relating to the Orioles - maybe I misunderstood (or maybe they didn't fully think that one through).

Beyond that, there were rockfish tacos, hotdogs with mac and cheese and crab, bottles of Natty Boh with large/thick cuts of bacon* sticking out of them (plus that same bacon on a stick, which will be sold at the park this year), cake on a stick, crab cakes, hotdogs, etc. Also, a bar with some relatively fancy drinks (and small bottles of water, so I had to return to that well repeatedly). All very nice (not that I had most of it; but it looked good). It was amusing watching certain people taking the plates of food, positioning them just so, and taking a picture or video before eating (glad my responsibility there as a member of the "media" was "have some food and look around").

* My off-hand "that's some serious bacon" was met with a glare from the server for some reason. If you're a bacon fan, look out for it though, I guess.

This was all done out on the flag court, where they showed off the new lower right-field wall. Taking four feet off the scoreboard might make for better viewing, but Camden Yards isn't exactly a pitcher friendly park already (over the past 5 years, the O's have given up the most home runs in the majors - 959 (192 a year) - and it's not like they have a ton of left-handed power on the team). We'll see how that goes.

Out in center-field above the high hitter's background they've built a bar area, where anyone with a ticket will be admitted. That too was nice - the view of the field is good, and it seems like it'll be a fun environment. Maybe not on college nights (or, rather, too much "fun", if you will), but you can't have it all.

When leaving, I was given a copy of Orioles Magazine, which had quick-fire Q&A with a bunch of players. A sample (mostly paraphrased):

Q: Favorite school subject?

JJ Hardy, Nick Markakis, Matt Wieters, and Brian Matusz all went with Math. Tommy Hunter picked recess.

Q: Favorite TV show?

Best answers were probably Wieters with Modern Family, Reimold with The Wire (sucking up to the home-town faithful?), or Matusz with South Park. Robert Andino apparently loves Wheel of Fortune; I'm not sure a 63 year-old has ever played second-base in the majors before.

Q: What do you wish you could do?

Kevin Gregg: Run Fast... Matt Wieters: Run Faster (not "faster than Gregg", I assume, but "faster than currently"). I like that Wieters isn't shooting for the stars there. Neither is JJ Hardy (Attend the Australian Open - I'm not sure what's stopping him). Tsuyoshi Wada goes with the practical (Speak English). Chris Davis wants to fly a plane, while Markakis and Tommy Hunter think outside the box (just "Fly" in general). Zach Britton and Taylor Teagarden are looking more at alternate career paths (astronaut and surgeon, respectively).

Alfredo Simon (now with the Reds) was listed on the team roster, by the way.

So... good times. Got to see some fellow bloggers, talk some baseball. The product on the field might not be the best, but at least the park's nice.