Game 6: Orioles vs. Tigers

Written by Daniel Moroz on Apr 07, 2011 19:00.

Oh noes, the perfect season is over! Ah well; with the Toronto loss this afternoon, the O's are still guaranteed the AL East crown if they go 161-1. At the moment, I'd settle for a series win though.

Tigers:

	Batting	Fielding	fWAR
Austin Jackson	.150/.261/.300	0	0.1
Will Rhymes	.143/.250/.143	0	-0.1
Brennan Boesch	.400/.375/.667	0	0.2
Miguel Cabrera	.368/.435/.895	0	0.4
Victor Martinez	.273/.273/.591	0	-0.1
Don Kelly	.200/.333/.400	0	0.0
Ryan Rayburn	.364/.417/.545	0	0.1
Alex Avila	.286/.375/.571	-1	0.1
Ramon Santiago	.333/.333/.500	0	0.0

That's six lefties in the line-up, which I think would have been wiser to emply versus Bergesen than Tillman (two-seamer and slider have larger platoon splits than change-up and ovre-hand curve) - not that it really made a difference yesterday. Avila raised his OPS something like 600 points in that game.

Brad Penny (2011):

ERA	FIP	xFIP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	fWAR
16.62	7.53	6.39	6.2	8.3	50.0%	-0.1

Penny had a nice 2010 based on good control and a high groundball rate. He only had one of those things working in his first start, and it got ugly.

The hard fastball (though not quite in Verlander territory) and hard change-up both have a fair bit of tailing action, while the slower curve is closer to being of the 12-6 variety. Perhaps looking to take the heater the other way or up the middle would put O's batters in a good position to turn on the change, since the velocity disparity isn't that great.

Orioles:

	Batting	Fielding	fWAR
Brian Roberts	.250/.286/.650	0	0.2
Nick Markakis	.353/.400/.412	0	0.1
Derrek Lee	.222/.300/.389	0	0.0
Vladimir Guerrero	.200/.200/.200	0	-0.2
Matt Wieters	.294/.333/.353	0	0.1
Adam Jones	.105/.105/.105	0	-0.3
Mark Reynolds	.167/.167/.278	0	-0.1
Felix Pie	.273/.273/.273	0	-0.1
J.J. Hardy	.214/.313/.429	0	0.1

The O's have fewer extra-base hits (11) than Carlos Quentin + Alex Gordon do (13), and only as many walks (8) as Logan Morrison.

Chris Tillman (2011):

ERA	FIP	xFIP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	fWAR
0.00	2.98	4.77	7.5	4.5	42.7%	0.2

Tillman kept the Rays hitless in his first start of the season, and it was nice to see that he struck out a few batters. The control needs to improve though. If he ended his season right new, he'd set a new career high in fWAR.

High riding fastball around 90 mph, that he likes to use up in the zone, and some good off-speed stuff. If only he still threw 95...

Thanks very much to Cal Abadin for helping put the PitchFX graphs together. He's one of a few people who expressed interest in contributing to these game previews, and we're in the process of transition the whole post over. Much credit to Cal for having a very apropos name and for actually figuring out how my spreadsheet works.

Stats: UZR, WAR, ERA, FIP, xFIP, K/9 & BB/9, GB%, PitchFX

Game 5: Orioles 3, Tigers 7

Written by Daniel Moroz on Apr 06, 2011 23:52.

The Good:

Derrek Lee had a nice plate appearance in the first inning, fouling off several tough pitches before taking a borderline 3-2 fastball for strike three. Hitters don't take enough of those types of pitches, so that was nice to see. Oh, and he also took Verlander deep his next time up - a two-run bomb the opposite way over the scoreboard.

The Bad:

Brad Bergesen didn't have great control of his four-seamer and didn't have any control of his sinker, which is usually bad news for him (especially since he only got one groundball). He predominantly used the former - and actually threw it by a few people - but it wasn't going to be a good night without some luck. Final line; 3.2 IP, 5 H, 4 R (2 ER), 2 BB, 2 K.
But Bergy didn't get a ton of luck. A flyball into very short right-field was dropped by Brian Roberts, even though Nick Markakis was standing more or less right there and didn't take charge - leaving Roberts to try a twisting catch that resulted in an error. Two unearned runs later (off of a double), and the O's were toast.
Josh Rupe relieved Bergesen, and looked pretty good for a while (lively fastball, for example). I was a little confused, since I had said previously that Rupe was bad. Then he gave up back-to-back home runs, and all was right with the world.

The Final:

The pitching match-up was not in the Orioles favor to begin with, but their guy having an off night and their opponent being on his game spelled the end to their perfect season (and sole possession of first place, as the Jays are also 4-1 now). Hopefully they got all of the BABIP and HR/FB regression out of their system.

Game 5: Orioles vs. Tigers

Written by Daniel Moroz on Apr 06, 2011 20:26.

Jeremy Guthrie's missing this start due to pneumonia, but he's out of the hospital today, which is great news. Hopefully he'll be back to 100% soon.

Tigers:

	Batting	Fielding	fWAR
Austin Jackson	.200/.333/.400	0	0.1
Will Rhymes	.200/.273/.200	0	0.0
Magglio Ordonez	.091/.091/0091	0	-0.2
Miguel Cabrera	.333/.389/.800	0	0.3
Victor Martinez	.176/.176/.353	0	-0.1
Brennan Boesch	.500/.462/.833	0	0.3
Jhonny Peralta	.333/.313/.400	0	0.0
Alex Avila	.100/.250/.100	-1	-0.2
Brandon Inge	.333/.333/.467	0	0.1

Justin Verlander (2011):

ERA	FIP	xFIP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	fWAR
4.50	4.51	4.06	12.0	6.0	25.0%	0.1

Durable (four straight 200+ IP seasons); misses bats (8.8 K/9 last year); good control (2.9 BB/9 last year). That's why he's a top Cy Young candidate.

Verlander's fastball is very good, and even if he's sitting at 92-94 he can dial it up to the high 90s and blow it by people, or scale it back a little and get more sink with the two-seamer. His change also has a lot of tailing action and is hard to put a bat on. The curve is a big bender, and he'll mix in a hard slider every now and again. It's some pretty filthy stuff, and if he's hitting his spot it'll be very difficult to get much going.

Orioles:

	Batting	Fielding	fWAR
Brian Roberts	.294/.294/.765	0	0.2
Nick Markakis	.429/.438/.500	0	0.1
Derrek Lee	.214/.313/.214	0	0.0
Vladimir Guerrero	.125/.125/.125	0	-0.3
Matt Wieters	.385/.429/.462	0	0.2
Adam Jones	.125/.125/.125	0	-0.2
Mark Reynolds	.200/.200/.333	0	-0.1
Felix Pie	.250/.250/.250	0	-0.1
J.J. Hardy	.273/.385/.545	0	0.1

O's now have sole possession of the lowest walk rate in the league. Hooray!

Brad Bergesen (2010):

ERA	FIP	xFIP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	fWAR
4.98	5.14	4.71	4.3	2.7	48.7%	0.6

Begresen started

Bergesen's got that four-seamer to compliment his sinker, but his off-speed pitches not being swing and miss offerings (though the slider is OK in that regard, but it leaves him susceptible to lefties) means he has to generate groundballs and keep from giving out free passes to be effective.

Stats: UZR, WAR, ERA, FIP, xFIP, K/9 & BB/9, GB%, HR/FB%, BABIP, PitchFX

Playing Pie

Written by Daniel Moroz on Apr 06, 2011 13:00.

I heard on the radio yesterday - and apparently some fans are taking about it as well - that there's support for giving Felix Pie more playing time in left-field in favor of Luke Scott due to defensive considerations. This leaves me with a couple reactions:

(1) You should not make decisions based on a game or two worth of stats, and you shouldn't judge a player's defensive talents based on a couple plays in a single game (in this case, Pie's two nice running grabs in the home opener, even though he really is a good outfielder). In this case, both are being done.

(2) This is amusing, since it's almost the exact argument I made against signing Vlad Guerrero, even though Vlad doesn't get mentioned here (except tangentially, when Luke is put onto the bench since there's no other spot for him).

Are The Orioles Pitchers This Good?

Written by Daniel Moroz on Apr 05, 2011 17:24.

In a word... no. I doubt any sane fan expects them to maintain a 1.00 ERA for 162 games, but does this early stretch mean pre-season projections need to be adjusted? Well, not really. The O's starters have certainly pitched well, but their strike-out to walk ratio is a solid but unspectacular 2.2 - which would have ranked right between Derek Lowe and Rick Porcello last year. The pitchers have benefited from (1) the defense turning over 80% of balls in play into outs (which is just not going to continue), and (2) flyballs staying in the park (they've given up just one home run despite being one of the least groundball inducing staffs in the majors so far). That explains why their ERA is so far out of line with their FIP (2.79) and xFIP (4.23). Now, if the O's posted a 4.23 ERA for the season that would still be a pretty substantial improvement over 2010 (when they had a 4.59 ERA), but that level of run prevention would not result in a ton of wins with the offensive production they've been getting.

For a (somewhat simplified) look at what the team's record would be based on their underlying stats (xFIP, wRC, UZR, etc.), check out Orioles Beyond W & L at the top of the site (or here). The sample size is obviously very small, so take it with a grain of salt for a little while yet.

Stats: ERA, FIP, xFIP, BABIP, HR/FB%

Game 4: Orioles 5, Tigers 1

Written by Daniel Moroz on Apr 04, 2011 20:37.

The Good:

Jake Arrieta blew his fastball by a few people, but also had his usual shaky control. Some line-drives were caught, but there was also some less than stellar defense in the inning in which Detroit scored off of him. Final line; 6 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 3 K.
Jason Berken. Good start to the season. Added 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K today, before Koji closed out the game.
Nick Markakis laced line-drives all over the park, going 3-4 with a double.
Brian Roberts' second three-run home run of the season was the O's big blow offensively. Roberts is the only Orioles with a longball this year, and he has driven in almost half of the team's runs.
Felix Pie showed his range in left-field, running down a couple of balls that no other O's left-fielder (or maybe even outfielder, if you want to include Jones and Markakis) would have gotten to. Also added a hit at the plate.
Matt Wieters picked up a couple hits (including a double) plus a walk, and looked good defensively behind the plate.

The Bad:

Vlad still looks awful, and was 0-4 with a K.

The Final:

It can't go on forever, but I'm liking this string of 4-1 type wins. O's are 4-0 and still in sole possession of first place.

Game 4: Orioles vs. Tigers

Written by Daniel Moroz on Apr 04, 2011 14:18.

The 3-0 start is both unexpected and exciting. Hopefully the starters can keep it going (along with Buck's BABIP magic) while the offense picks it up a bit.

Tigers:

	Batting	Fielding	fWAR
Austin Jackson	.182/.357/.455	0	0.1
Will Rhymes	.000/.000/.000	0	-0.2
Magglio Ordonez	.000/.000/.000	0	-0.2
Miguel Cabrera	.455/.500/1.091	0	0.3
Victor Martinez	.231/.231/.463	0	0.0
Brennan Boesch	.625/.556/1.000	0	0.2
Jhonny Peralta	.364/.333/.364	0	0.0
Alex Avila	.143/.250/.143	-1	-0.1
Brandon Inge	.364/.364/.455	0	0.1

Their two and three hitters are still sporting zero lines, and a pair of hitters have higher batting averages than OBPs. Miguel Cabrera makes any middle of the order formidable though.

Rick Porcello (2010):

ERA	FIP	xFIP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	fWAR
4.92	4.31	4.24	4.7	2.1	50.3%	1.9

The good control and groundball rates allowed Porcello to be a solid starter despite a well below average number of strike-outs. If he adds the K's, he could be one of the better pitchers in the league.

Porcello's two-seamer has a lot of movement on it, which is what helps him generate all those grounders. His slider and change got some whiffs last year, so he has weapons to go for the strike-out if need be (if not completely overpowering ones). It might actually be to the O's benefit to put him into those situations, since beating sinker after sinker into the dirt is unlikely to get them too far. IE, work the count (which is a good rule in general for when you want to score runs and stuff).

Orioles:

	Batting	Fielding	fWAR
Brian Roberts	.308/.308/.692	0	0.1
Nick Markakis	.300/.333/.300	0	0.0
Derrek Lee	.182/.250/.182	0	-0.1
Vladimir Guerrero	.167/.167/.167	0	-0.2
Matt Wieters	.300/.300/.300	0	0.0
Adam Jones	.167/.167/.167	0	-0.1
Mark Reynolds	.273/.273/.455	0	0.0
Felix Pie	.200/.200/.200	0	-0.1
J.J. Hardy	.250/.400/.500	0	0.1

You can see the excellent influence Vlad has had on Adam Jones. The team has just 4 walks on the year, tied for the lower mark in the league. That also ties them with Jose Bautista, Bobby Abreu, Justin Smoak, Brandon Belt (in his first four ML games), Logan Morrison, and Kila Ka'aihue, with Jonny Gomes one ahead at 5. Luckily only one major leaguer has more runs created (wRC) than the O's - Howie Kendrick (6.2 vs. 6.1).

Jake Arrieta (2010):

ERA	FIP	xFIP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	fWAR
4.66	4.76	5.17	4.7	4.3	42.2%	0.8

When he was called up, I expected Arrieta to struggle to get his K/BB ratio above one, and it took almost to the end of the season for it to happen. He really needs to step up all facets of his game this year.

Arrieta throws hard enough, but his fastball appears to be more solid than a particularly outstanding offering. I like the use of the two-seamer to maybe generate some extra groundballs, but he still gave up his fair share of flyballs last year. His curve and slider both have some break to them, but that didn't seem to make them all that hard to hit. Though, of course, that might have had something to do with batters being willing to let them go by (given Arrieta's control issues often put him in unfavorable counts) unless they're meat-balls.

Stats: UZR, WAR, ERA, FIP, xFIP, K/9 & BB/9, GB%, HR/FB%, BABIP, PitchFX

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