Another home run by Nolan Reimold (4th game in a row!) and one by JJ Hardy gave the O's their second win in the series against the White Sox yesterday. That guarantees them at least a split, and they'll get two chances to take the series.

The Good:

• Fantastic first inning by Tommy Hunter, as he struck out the side. For the game, he 7 whiffs (and a number of called strikes) on his breaking-balls. There were a number of cutters thrown as well that looked pretty good.
• Chris Davis AND Mark Reynolds made nice plays on defense. Really.
• Kevin Gregg was used in the correct role (team down by a lot), and managed not to give up a run despite allowing a hit and walking two.

The Bad:

• The rest of Hunter's innings, which totaled 4.2 IP, 9 H, 8 R, 4 BB, 5 K, 2 HR. He's now given up 6 home runs on the season, and his fastball is averaging just under 90 mph. Building-block! When Wada or Britton or whoever is ready to take a rotation spot, moving Hunter to the pen seems like it might be a good idea. They could use a long-man out there certainly.
• Jake Peavy pretty much completely shut down the O's offense, who had almost twice as many strike-outs (9) as base-runners (5 hits, 0 walks, 1 error).

The Final:

That was, let's say, not quite as good as the previous two games. More "usual" Orioles baseball. At least with the Blue Jays' loss, the O's retain control of first place in the AL East.

Maybe*. If he keeps hitting .344/.462/.750, then I like his chances to take that crown (as well as the MVP award – and maybe the Cy Young).

* Just want to make sure it's clear that the hot start is nice but only slightly helps Wieters' cause - he was already probably one of the best catchers in baseball, and the leap to the top would have been a relatively short one in any case.

Since the start of the 2011 season, Wieters leads all Major League catchers in fWAR with 5.9. Right behind him is a plus hitter who can’t catch all that well (Mike Napoli) and a plus catcher who’s probably not much better than an average hitter (Yadier Molina, though Yadi does have 3 home runs already this year). A little harder to find someone adding a lot of value on both sides of the ball, which is what it looks like Wieters is poised to do. 

The Gold Glove last year was legit, and when Wieters figures out whatever kink has been thrown into the gears this season as far accuracy is concerned (if there is one), he should once again be a weapon behind the plate.Taking things back to 2010, he's first in Defensive Runs Saved on steals. And Wieters is the second highest rated catcher according to the Fan Scouting Report (to Molina - who he actually narrowly beat last year). Of catchers with at leas 1,000 innings the last three seasons, he's allowed the second fewest passed balls (3). The pitch-framing data is somewhat less positive, but still has Wieters as above-average in that area as well. I think it’s fair to say Wieters is one of – if not quite* – the best defensive players at his position.

* He probably has a good claim on the best as far as arm + pitch-blocking goes though.

Offensively, the output that many expected right when he was called up may finally be appearing. It’s still very early (and I wasn’t exactly confident in major advances over 2011 before the season started), but signs have been positive. Wieters’ strike-out to walk ratio so far this year is 4-7 (that is, almost twice as many of the good one). He’s shown a more patient approach at the plate, and cut down on the number of pitches he swings at that our out of the strike-zone. He’s putting the bat on the ball when it’s in the zone though, hitting the ball with some authority (not only the 4 home runs and a double, but a fair number of line-drives that have helped up his BABIP to .292). Having a catcher that isn't a hole in the line-up is one thing - having a catcher batting in the middle of it is another.

Obviously Wieters isn’t likely to continue this pace and hit 60+ home runs this year, but if the plate discipline is a real improvement then I could potentially see him hitting something like .300/.375/.500 this year (or in the near future) with a bit of batted ball luck (and not even a super crazy amount). That’s a top 15-20 hitter (in all of baseball) type line. From a catcher. A Gold Glove catcher. Which is about the time the conversation moves from best player at his position to best player (full stop). (With the playing-time limitation and injury risks associated with the position, I highly doubt one could make a really convincing argument for the case – but there could at least be some conversations about it.)

Even if he doesn’t hit that well though – and I don’t expect him to, but wouldn’t be surprised by it – a consistent .350-.360 wOBA (instead of ~.385) is usually going to be good enough for top 5 or so among catchers. Add the plus defense and that’s around a 5 win player. Number of catchers who averaged 5 wins a year from 2009 to 2011*? One – Joe Mauer (with 15 total fWAR on the nose).

* I just picked a recent stretch. Breaking it up into a series of two-year periods;

Players with 10+ fWAR over the period	Years
-	2010-11
Joe Maur	2009-10
Mauer	2008-09
Russell Martin	2007-08
Jorge Posada	2006-07
-	2005-06
-	2004-05
Posada + Javy Lopez	2003-04
Posada	2002-03
-	2001-02
Mike Piazza	2000-01
Piazza + Ivan Rodriguez	1999-00
Piazza + Rodriguez + Jason Kendall	1998-99
Piazza + Rodriguez + Kendall	1997-98
Piazza + Rodriguez	1996-97
Piazza	1995-96
Piazza	1994-95
Piazza + Chris Hoiles (!)	1993-94
Hoiles + Darren Daulton	1992-93
Mickey Tettleton	1991-92

Things I take from this : (1) Mike Piazza was really freakin’ good in his first 10 seasons, and (2) combining for 10 wins over two years is pretty darn impressive for a catcher. There are a number of guys with a fair chance at it for 2011-12, but betting on Wieters to be the one isn't especially foolhardy.

The O's road-trip started out on the right foot, and begin a four-game set in Chicago as the middle leg in their road trip.

The Good:

• Jake Arrieta was once again very impressive. His fastball was 93-96, and he threw it by people (5 total whiffs). The two-seamer showed some good movement (there was one in particular the tailed back over the black on the outside corner at 96 mph for a called strike three). He threw the breaking-balls for strikes, and spun a few wicked sliders  off the plate to get guys swinging. Final line; 6.2 IP, 7 H, 4 R (2 ER), 1 BB, 7 K, 1 HR.
• Matt Lindstrom and Pedro Strop combined for 3.2 scoreless innings, with the latter throwing sliders for strikes (and ball when needed), blowing fastballs by guess at 98 and hitting the edges at 97 (he K'ed 3). Strop's probably the team's second best reliever, which is why I wouldn't have had him pitch his second inning with the big lead to save him for the rest of the series.
• Matt Wieters did a nice job at the plate, drawing two walks and hitting his 3rd homer of the year. Also, his 4th homer - a grand slam in the top of the 10th (battling back from an 0-2 count, no less). About 10 second before that, I said "Would love to see Wieters make this 10-4 so I can relax." Ask and ye shall receive, I guess.
• Mark Reynolds walked and double in a run (the O's only hit with runners in scoring position), and didn't make a misplay in the field (which is news enough that it deserves a mention). Also crushed a ball to the wall in dead-center to lead-off the 10th that the outfielder missed and resulted in Reynolds getting to third (and subsequently scoring the winning run).
• Nolan Reimold, who pinch-hit later in the game, hit his third 9th inning home run in his last three games. Then drove in another run in the 10th with a single. Maybe he just hit well since he was rested from sitting on the bench for most of the game.
• Adam Jones had a pair of hits, including his 4th home run of the year - to tie the game with two outs in the top of the 9th.
• Despite striking out 15 times, the several Orioles had some nice plate appearances on the night (even if they did do an awful job of converting runners in scoring position into points on the board until extras).

The Bad:

• Endy Chavez once again batted first. He went 0-3 with a strike-out and left 5 men on base (which is pretty impressive, since he only had two chances up when men could be on base).
• Nick Johnson still has his batting eye, but I'm not sure he can really hit anymore. Only took a few swings, and didn't do anything when he put the bat on the ball. Struck out twice looking (though one was a ball).
• Chris Davis went 3-5 at the plate, with a double and 2 K's. He chased the ball out of the zone, as he is wont to do (watching him hit reminds me of Vlad from last year - even when he gets a hit, the at bat is sometimes painful). Also, he kind of screwed Arrieta over with his defense in the 7th inning, completely missing a throw to first on a bunt (just completely whiffed on it), and then could handle a second throw to first on what should have been a double play ball. And the O's say he's an above average first-baseman?
• Wieters did less of a good job behind the plate though, with two errors on throws to second. It seems like his accuracy with the throwing on stolen bases has been a little off this year. Maybe he's turning from Pudge Rodriguez into Mike Piazza?

The Final:

Insane game. For a long time it looked like Jake Arrieta's nice start would be wasted, but then - sparked by Nolan Reimold, mind you - things turned. The terrifying lows, the dizzying highs, the creamy middles - Orioles baseball! O's move into sole possession of first in the East at 6-4 (only 64 more to 70).

I only got to see the tail end of the first two games, but the Orioles taking the series in Toronto was both unexpected (given they were something like 5-290 there recently) and awesome. Nolan Reimold went 5-10 with two doubles and two homers (both in the top of the 9th - clutch!) in the O's two wins (and then sat for game three as Endy Chavez went 0-4 out of the lead-off spot - why?!?*). Adam Jones also homered twice in the series (there were 14 hit between the two teams), though the O's followed his lead and walked a grand total of 4 times in the three games.

* Apparently he has a minor leg thing, which explains why he didn't play but not why Chavez is hitting first.

Wilson Betemit and Mark Reynolds flip-flopped between DH and third, but that didn't stop the fielding woes as Betemit made two errors in the series (leading to a pair of unearned runs). Between Betemit, Reynolds, Davis, and Flaherty, there's only one passable third-baseman and it's the guy who probably can't hit at all in the majors (Flaherty). All season it'll be a "grass is greener" situation, where whoever isn't playing at third "has to be better than what they have out there". But no, they all kind of suck. Have to take the bad to get the (hopefully) good they provide at the plate.

Tommy Hunter got rocked in game one, giving up four home runs (luckily that only lead to 5 runs, and the bullpen held the Jays there). Jason Hammel only gave up one homer in his five innings in game two. Brian Matusz split the difference with two longballs allowed (along with 4 BB's), in giving up 5 runs in 5.2 IP. At least he K'd 4 this time (and several people told me he didn't look that bad - just didn't have fastball command). Kevin Gregg apparently let two of Matusz's runners score, and then three more of his own (while recording one out). Maybe he shouldn't have been brought into a 3-2 game with runners on base (the O's were at ~27% to win when he entered, ~2% when he left)? I might have Gregg be the guy who comes in when the game's 9-2 already, instead of the one who makes it 9-2.

In any case, the O's won the series. They're tied for first place in the AL East at 5-4. And that even reflects their level of play so far fairly well!

The O's lost game one of this series handily, game two in - not quite heart-breaking - but hard to take fashion, and have to deal with CC Sabathia in game three.

The Good:

• Things did not get off to a particularly auspicious start for Jake Arrieta, as he gave up a two-run homer to the second batter of the game. He settled down after that though, and looked mighty impressive once again. The fastball was 92-95 and he did a pretty nice job spotting it. If we're counting four-seamers and two-seamers together, Arrieta actually threw 6 fastballs by Yankee batters. He threw the curve and slider over for strikes, and get 3 and 2 whiffs on those pitches, respectively. New York got the ball in the air a fair bit against Arrieta, but overall it was a quality outing. Final line: 6.2 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 HR. (The fourth run allowed was a runner who the pen let score.)
• Kevin Gregg (!) pitched a perfect (!!) 9th inning, including getting a called strike three by throwing a 3-2 change-up right on the outside corner. He should have gotten the win, because the Orioles should have scored in the bottom of the ninth.
• JJ Hardy picked up a couple of hits - and they weren't even home runs! - and worked a walk in the bottom of the 9th.
• Mark Reynolds doubled and walked twice at the plate (and K'ed). Also, didn't make an error in the field (though maybe because his limited range kept him from reaching a ball he would have ended up booting.)

The Bad:

• The Orioles did not score in the bottom of the 9th though, as Robert Andino struck out waving at three pitches out of the zone and then - with the base loaded and two outs - Adam Jones K'ed swinging as well. The third-baseman was playing way back, and any decent bunt probably brings Nolan Reimold at third in to score the winning run (it wouldn't have been the first time Jones walked things off with a bunt either). Anyway... the O's don't score and then the real Kevin Gregg comes out. Three hits, including a two-run homer.
• Wilson Betemit against tough lefties might not be the best match-up; 0-3 with 3 K's against Sabathia, and then a groundout versus a righty.

The Final:

Things looked bleak early, but the O's did a nice job making Sabathia work (even though Reynolds is the only one who drew a walk against him) and clawed their way back. Like yesterday though, a battle of the bullpens in extra innings favored the Yankees. So the sweep is complete (the O's struck out 38 times in the series). After the off day, the Birds go up to Tornto with a 3-3 record.

I didn't get a chance to see Wei-Yin Chen make his Major League debut yesterday - I got home for the bottom of the 9th, so at least I was treated to the extra-innings loss - but I've heard some complementary things about it. Chen's line on the night: 5.2 IP, 7 H, 4 R (2 ER - thanks Mark Reynolds), 1 BB, 6 K, 1 HR (to Derek Jeter, leading off the game). The strike-out figure looks impressive, but I'm not sure exactly what to think given that there were a total of 30 K's in the game (16 by the O's, 14 by the Yankees).

Looking at the Pitch/FX for the game:



Chen's four-seam fastball was 88-92 with some movement, but nothing too extraordinary - seems like an average-ish pitch. He did get a couple swings and misses, and pounded the strike-zone with it though.

The change-up also had decent movement (though a few of them really tailed), and some good results - of the 8 that were swung at, 3 were missed, 2 were fouled off, and 2 resulted in groundball. Chen did a pretty good job working that pitch down and away to righties.

The slider didn't have a great deal of break (didn't seem to drop or cut all that much), but got 3 whiffs on 9 swings. It was his primary off-speed pitch to lefties (he threw a few to righties, but was more fastball-change-up).

There were also a handful of curveballs mixed in; slower than the slider by close to 10 mph and with more drop (though not an ungodly amount). The one batter who actually tried to hit the pitch did not succeed (looks like Chen largely tried to waste the pitch low and out of the zone when he threw it).

So that seems like a reasonable mix of pitches, that a pitcher with good control can do something with. Almost (old) Matusz-like, even (not sure having them back-to-back in the rotation makes a great deal of sense). Being able to (mostly) handle a line-up like New York is solid (though we'll see if he can do it again when they get additional looks at him). Chen looks like he could be pretty darn good as #5 starters go - we'll need to wait to see if there's anything more there (I look forward to actually seeing it live).

The Orioles are not expected to get much production from first-base this year (again).

Totally unrelated news... 26 year-old first-baseman Brandon Allen was just put on waivers by the Oakland A's. Allen, a big left-handed swinger, doesn't have a great deal of major league playing time; in 374 career plate appearances he's hit just .205/.291/.375 and struck out almost 36% of the time. He does have 11 home runs and a solid 11% walk rate though, and his career line at Triple-A is .286/.401/.555.

Compare this to Chris Davis with his .252/.301/.447 major league line and .337/.397/.609 numbers at Triple-A. In the highest minor league level, Davis has a small edge in home runs (33 per 600 PA to 32 per 600 PA) and a large edge in BABIP (around 85 points), but worse plate discipline (a 24% strike-out rate versus 21% is close, but a 9% walk rate versus 15% is not). Additionally, just to note it; Allen has hit about as well against righties in the majors as Davis has (93 wRC+ to 95 wRC+), but much worse against lefties (18 wRC+ to 75 wRC+) due largely to a .213 BABIP against them (while Davis' BABIP is only 14 points lower than against righties, at .325).

Depending on how much of the BABIP difference is "real" - I'd guess a fair bit of it, but not the whole thing - one could argue either way about who has had the better numbers. Davis has struck out less in the majors, but I'm not sure that would continue given their minor league numbers, Allen's better plate discipline, and Allen's better major league contact rate (70% to 67%). 

I'm not saying the Orioles should definitely pick Allen up, but I'd have more faith in him turning into a decent major leaguer than Davis. Also, can't go back in time but, claiming Allen for free > trading for Davis.