The pitching staff for the Orioles is mostly decided to start the season, but things look like they'll be in flux all year long. The guy who'll end up being the team's best starting pitching could be the Opening Day starter, or it could be someone beginning the year in the minors. A number of pitchers should end up getting starts throughout the season, and I wouldn't expect any one in particular to go for more than 150 IP (someone probably will, but it's anybody's guess as to who right now). That makes these projections really sketchy:



So many of the pitchers having similar FIPs is unintentional - I did strike-out, walk, and groundball rates for each, and that's what they came out to, more or less. It's been what I've said a few times this off-season - the O's have a lot of depth when it comes to #4/5 starters. If one guy gets hurt, the drop-off to whoever is next in line shouldn't be too severe (it's just that they all are kind of mediocre). Alfredo Simon* and Dana Eveland** may not end up pitching for Baltimore this year, but you can pretty much fill in "Miscellaneous Pitcher" for them and the results should be in the neighborhood. It's an almost certainty that there will be some O's putting up below replacement level innings, but guessing who that is in advance is a little trickier (just like some starter will probably post an ERA below 4).

* Not that Alfredo Simon is a top flight pitcher, but I don't understand just letting him go. He could very easily be the team's best starting pitcher (if healthy), and showed improved control even while moving into the rotation last year. At almost 31 years old it's not likely that Simon would be a part of the next good Orioles team, but I don't really understand the reasoning for giving away a potentially useful arm. If they end up trading him that might be a different story, I suppose, thought I don't see them getting more back than they gave away for Dana Eveland (and a Simon for Eveland swap does not sound enticing).

** They traded some young players for a mediocre pitcher, and then designate that pitcher for assignment a few months later. Who could have seen that coming? Taking chances on freely available talent is good - if it doesn't work out, you don't lose anything. Trading assets for what should be freely available talent is less good.

A 4.42 team FIP would be an improvement over the 2011 club's 4.67, but the second worst team in the majors last year (the Reds) was still better (4.37). It's a mighty bad pitching staff. Plus, given the O's below average defense, the team ERA should be even worse. Hopefully they can give up less than 800 runs this season.

With Matt Antonelli (and his Major League contract) getting sent down, it looks like Rule 5 pick Ryan Flaherty is going to be getting first crack at the utility infielder job for the Orioles this year. The 25 year-old, who was selected from the Cubs' system, has to stay with the O's all season or be offered back to Chicago.

Flaherty has no big league experience, and only 186 plate appearances at Triple-A (where he hit .237/.277/.399 in 2011). In 428 career PA at the Double-A level, he hit a slightly more impressive .282/.364/.472, with pretty good plate discipline numbers (11.7% walk rate, 15.7% strike-out rate) and some pop (15 home runs). Flaherty came up as a shortstop (and even played a handful of games there last year), so while his defense is unlikely to be plus around the infield, he should at least be an upgrade over the likes of Mark Reynolds.

The struggles at Triple-A (where he had more than 4 K's per walk) leave me somewhat doubtful of Flahrty's ability to hit enough to be much better than a replacement level player. This Spring he's at .273/319.477 with 9 K's and 2 walks - Antonelli, by contrast, hasn't hit for average (.194) or power (ISO of .000), but still has a higher OBP (.333). (There's also a slight BABIP difference - .324 to .250 - but these are some really small sample sizes.)

Giving Flaherty the first opportunity makes some sense since it's either now or never (or, I suppose, the O's could trade for him). I could even be convinced that he should be starting for the team over Chris Davis (.283/.298/.500 this Spring, 14:1 strike-out to walk ratio), allowing the team to move Reynolds to first. That's more of a performance thing though, since the O's want to see what Davis (and, it seems, Flaherty) can do.

Matthew Kory from the Red Sox blog Over the Monster had me on his podcast yesterday to discuss how the 2011 season went for the Oriole, and how the future looks (he had some not unkind things to say abut Dan Duquette as well). You can check it out here. no comments

O's are 5-7 so far in Spring Training; a 68 win full season pace (not that it matters). Endy Chavez is batting .409/.458/.591, which hopefully won't encourage Buck to make him the team's lead-off hitter (which he was for this game). Nick Johnson is at .348/.464/.478; Mark Rernolds, JJ Hardy, and Matt Antonelli have each walked more times than they've struck out (though have only 2 home runs between them); Chris Davis has a not surprising .276/.300/.483 line. On the pitching side, I love seeing Brian Matusz's 13-0 strike-out to walk ratio and reports that he's throwing in the low 90's, though I'm still not getting my hopes up that he'll be back to "normal"; after the season he has last year, just being a major league caliber pitcher at all would be nice.

The Good:

• Endy Chavez picked up three more hits, moving his average to .462. Career OBP in the Majors is still just .313, of course.
• Adam Jones hit a three-run homer, going down and getting a pitch that might have been off the plate away and driving it out to center-field.
• Matt Wieters did work on both sides of the ball, homering at the plate and throwing out a couple of potential base-stealers plus picking off a runner at second. 
• 2001 third round draft-pick Mike Wright pitched two and a third innings in relief, K'ing 4.
• Stu Pomeranz came out throwing some gas in the 9th, striking out the side.

The Bad:

• Alfedo Simon didn't look great when he was pitching - it seemed to me like he wasn't get much power from his pitching motion, and the fastball didn't have it's usual pop (plus, he was throwing a lot of off-speed stuff, though maybe he was jsut working on something). Thus, it wasn't surprising to find out he left the game after two innings (one run on two hits, a walk, and a hit batter; no K's) with a groin strain.
• I'm mostly just picking on him, but Chris Davis went 0-4 with a strike-out and looked absolutely terrible against lefty (and former Oriole) Clay Rapada.

The Final:

The Orioles beat the Yankees! Sure it's only Spring Training, but that's still always nice. It sounds like Zach Britton will be missing some more time with shoulder inflammation, which isn't great news. If I'm the Orioles, I don't care at all about Britton's contributions to the team in 2012 and am completely concerning with his long-term health when it comes to decision making.

Baseball on TV! Well, considering it was the Orioles versus the Pirates, maybe one would call it "baseball". The O's had their starting line-up out there though, and Spring Training games are still (usually) better than almost anything else on.

The Good:

• Brian Matusz got the start, going a couple innings. Though he gave up a number of hits (6) and a few runs (3), there were some positives; he K'ed 3, didn't walk a batter, and didn't give up a flyball (there was one relatively hard-hit "fliner", but nothing that was going to leave the yard with a strong wind). It looked like maybe they wanted Matusz to just work on the fastball, since that seemed to make up the vast majority of his offerings. He was hitting 90-91 pretty consistently, and even threw the pitch by at least one batter. I'm not sure things would have gone as well against a line-up better than the Pirates' B team, but it wasn't a bad start. Looking forward to seeing Matusz open things up a bit in future games.
• Oscar Villareal (1 IP, 1 H, 2 K), Troy Patton (2 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 1 K), and Stu Pomeranz (1 IP, 2 H) didn't give up any runs, which was "good", relatively speaking.
• Nolan Reimold was in the lead-off spot, and it sounds like there's a fair chance he'll actually be there during the season. Only Nick Markakis has a higher career OBP on the team, so Reimold-Markakis (or the other way around) at the top of the line-up makes a lot of sense. Nolan did go 0-3 with 2 K's, but hopefully that doesn't dissuade Buck.
• Manny Machado made a a nice diving stop plus strong throw at short - if he can be average to above there defensively, that'll go a long way to making him a valuable big leaguer.

The Bad:

• Kevin Gregg is still on the team. The announcers were talking about how he wants to get his closer's job back... and Gregg promptly allowed a two-run home runs. Sure, he can get his job back - he just needs to outpitch Jim Johnsons. Given that I'm not totally confident in Gregg outpitching, say, Jason Berken, it just seems unlikely. At least he struck out the side.
• Matt Lindstrom followed Gregg, giving up three more runs (only two earned) and not even recording a K. I'm not a scout, but even though he was throwing 94, the ball wasn't really popping and it didn't seem like batters were having all that much trouble catching up to it. And the slider seemed kind of flat. Maybe it was an off night though.
• Darren O'Day didn't give up an earned run, but two crossed the plate, on two hits and a walk (struck out a pair)
• Two errors (Andino, Davis) and generally poor defense, which is not a great way to back up a bad pitching staff.
• On the other side of the ball, the O's had as more K's (9) than hits (6 - all singles) plus walks (2).

The Final:

The O's went down 1-0 two batters into the game (mid-season form!), and it more or less continued on in that vein. This is Spring Training for fans too, but the team just dropped us right into the deep end having to watch this kind of game - couldn't they have eased us in to the sucking?

The infield was put together last week, leaving the outfield and the bench to be projected from the position players.

Nolan Reimold (LF):

500 PA, .253/.340/.431, -4 fielding, 1.4 Wins Above Replacement

It'll be interesting to see what Reimold can do if he gets a full healthy season to play. At 28 years old already, there isn't a lot of time left in what should be his prime years to establish himself as a starter in the big leagues. I'm assuming he'll be the team's primary left-fielder, though Chavez will steal some starts.

Adam Jones (CF):

600 PA, .275/.325/.456, -4 fielding, 2.5 WAR

Good but not great player, though - as before every season - he could certainly break out if he makes a step forward with the plate discipline. I'd just as soon see Jones traded this year if the O's can get a decent return, since the idea of paying him for what he could be (which I think is what he'll want) as opposed to what he is doesn't sound appealing.

Nick Markakis (RF):

650 PA, .289/.366/.422, -3 fielding, 2.7 WAR

Good but not great player, and I'm not holding out hope any longer that Nick can be much more than that. The ability to hit for average and get on base probably keeps him as the team's best hitter, even without the power, but that isn't very impressive from a corner outfielder.

Taylor Teagarden (C):

175 PA, .216/.280/.351 +1 fielding, 0.3 WAR

Above replacement level, but nothing to write home about. Good glove and some pop, but it'll take something beyond that to keep the drop-off from Wieters from being too big.

Matt Antonelli (IF):

425 PA, .243/.327/.352, -4 fielding, 0.6 WAR

I might like him more than most, but when OBP is all you bring to the table you need to be really good about it to be valuable. There are worse back-ups, of course.

Endy Chavez (OF):

350 PA, .272/.306/.365, +6 fielding, 0.7 WAR

It's certainly nice to have a good fielding 4th outfielder, but I hope that doesn't mean he'll be starting too often.

The outfield plus bench totals to 8.3 WAR - three outfielders met or exceeded that mark in fWAR last season (Jacoby Ellsbury, Jose Bautista, Matt Kemp). The starters should be pretty solid, but the O's need more than that from their "stars to be competitive. With a rough go at the position players "done", here's where they stand:



That's a total of 17.6 WAR, but it's likely that some players not listed (who will tend to be more replacement level) will get playing time (knocking the total down, maybe closer to ~16). The offense should be middle of the pack again, and hopefully the defense isn't quite as bad (though it will still probably be below average - and I may have been a little too kind in that regard). That the position players are definitely the strength of this teams is, well, kinda sad.

The first round of 2012 Orioles projections takes a look around the starters in the infield (plus DH). A few of these players probably won't get as many plate appearances as I attributed to them, but it shouldn't take too huge a difference.

Matt Wieters (C):

525 PA, .270/.337/.446, +5 fielding, 4.0 Wins Above Replacement

There's some mild concern that Wieters won't be able to maintain the power production he showed last year - he went from 11 homers to 22 - but a plus hitting Gold Glove caliber catcher is very valuable. He's the team's best player, and he could very well beat this projection and turn into a star player.

Chris Davis (1B, 3B, DH):

575 PA, .248/.297/.414. -4 fielding, -0.2 WAR

Frankly, if Davis is this bad then I have a hard time seeing him getting this much playing time. I'm assuming he'll get every chance to produce though. Lots of K's, poor defense, and not nearly enough walks or homers to make up for it. Replacement level players should be freely available - no reason to give up assets to acquire them.

Robert Andino (2B, SS):

550 PA, .258/.315/.348, +2 fielding, 1.0 WAR

If Andino can walk 8% of the time again and post an above average BABIP, then he could push closer to 1.5 wins. Better as a utility infielder than as a starter, but given the way the roster is currently constructed he's probably the team's top second-baseman.

Mark Reynolds (3B, 1B, DH):

625 PA, .218/.320/.460, -10 fielding, 1.4 WAR

There will be a lot of strike-outs, homers, and walks. If Reynolds gives back close to 30 runs with the glove again, he'll be a replacement level player. Hiding him at DH once in a while will help.

JJ Hardy (SS):

500 PA, .259/.310/.427, +5 fielding, 2.6 WAR

I'd be very, very surprised to see Hardy hit 30 home runs again, but he doesn't need to to be a valuable player. I hope the plate discipline numbers come around though, and that he stays healthy.

Wilson Betemit (DH, plus filling in some places on the infield):

550 PA, .255/.327/.408, -2 fielding, 0.5 WAR

If Betemit repeats his .391 BABIP from last year, that would be great. If Buck picks his spots with Betemit a little better, then his rate stats should be better (though I'm not sure he'll be more valuable, since it'll be in less playing time obviously). Nice to see someone who will take a walk, but I still don't get the two years.

So that's six guys, totaling just 9.3 WAR. By comparison; Alex Rodriguez in 2007 - 9.8 fWAR. Wieters is good and Hardy is solid, but the rest of the group, well, partially explains why this is a last place team. And the youngest player from the "also-rans" - Davis - is probably the worst of the bunch.