This post is going up late because I overslept (was up late putting the game wraps together for The Outside Corner). It was put together by Cal Abadin, who's been helping out with the PitchFX graphs recently and is going to be the prime game preview man now. Normally I'd look to add my two cents in somewhere if need be, but , well, overslept. So let's just throw him right into the fire with his first full post! Thanks for the hard work Cal! Welcome aboard!

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And the losing streak continues, as the O’s drop under .500 for the first time this year.  They go out today, looking to avoid the sweep at the hands of the Tribe.

Indians:

	Batting	Fielding	fWAR
Grady Sizemore	.000/.000/.000	0	0.0
Asdrubal Cabrera	.293/.333/.569	0	0.7
Shin-Soo Choo	.226/.228/.358	0	0.0
Carlos Santana	.191/.278/.255	-1	-0.2
Travis Hafner	.333/.380/.578	0	0.4
Orlando Cabrera	.288/.321/.423	0	0.2
Travis Buck	.231/.259/.346	0	0.0
Matt LaPorta	.250/.346/.477	0	0.3
Jack Hannahan	.237/.310/.421	0	0.2

Sizemore makes his season debut after knee surgery.  Should be interesting how his presence back at the top of the lineup affects the red-hot Indians.

Fausto Carmona:

ERA	FIP	xFIP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	fWAR
6.11	5.33	3.57	7.46	3.06	58.2%	0.0

Carmona has actually pitched much better than his numbers show.  Aside from opening day (10 ER, 3+ IP), he’s been fantastic since (14.2 IP, 2 ER).  Should settle today, O’s need to string together some walks.

Carmona’s main pitch is his sinker, complementing his fastball and slider, decent swing and miss stuff though.  His K/9 is a little above his career average, look for that to come down.

Orioles:

	Batting	Fielding	fWAR
Brian Roberts	.232/.246/.446	0	0.1
Nick Markakis	.220/.286/.380	0	0
Derrek Lee	.224/.309/.306	0	-0.1
Vladimir Guerrero	.259/.259/.333	0	-0.2
Luke Scott	.222/.344/.407	0	-0.1
Mark Reynolds	.256/.327/.442	0	0.3
Felix Pie	.357/.357/.357	0	0.0
Matt Wieters	.194/.275/.333	0	0.1
Cesar Izturis	.286/.375/.286	0	0.1

The O’s have cooled down considerably, though I don’t think most expected the hitting to keep up.  Not much offense yesterday, need more to work Carmona today if the O’s want a win.

Brad Bergesen:

ERA	FIP	xFIP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	fWAR
3.18	5.01	4.76	6.35	3.18	22.2%	0.0

Bergesen gets the start, needs to get that GB% up.  I’m not liking such a low percentage, eventually that ERA is going to climb at that rate.

Bergesen doesn’t rely on swings and misses very much, and expect that K/9 to come down considerably; relies rather heavily on his fastball, which batters normally make pretty solid contact with.

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Stats: UZR, WAR, ERA, FIP, xFIP, K/9 & BB/9, GB%, PitchFX

The Good:

• Zach Britton's luck kind of ran out, but I like his K/BB in this one. The Indians just managed to string 6 hits together in the one inning. Final line; 6 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 1 BB, 6 K, 1 HR.

The Bad:

• No offense again. Eight hits - but none for extra-bases - and only one walk. Power and patience => runs.
• Koji Uehara pitched a scoreless inning since he "needed some work". Also, "he can't pitch two days in a row yet". So instead of having him pitch yesterday in a one run game in New York, Buck uses his best reliever in an 8-1 game, thus making him no longer available for tomorrow. Brilliant.

The Final:

Five losses in a row. Buck Magic, ey? Real clean-up hitter, ey? Look, it's not a big deal. If the team plays .500 ball the rest of the way, I think most people will be happy. The offense will pick up at some point. This isn't fun to watch though.

The Good:

• Jake Arrieta did a nice job mixing in his breaking-balls (though he stuck mainly with the fastball) and throwing strikes, taking a no-hitter into the 5th inning. He used the two-seamer quite a bit, which probably helped the 10-7 groundball to flyball ratio. All the hits happened to come in one inning; thus the 3 runs. Final line; 6 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 2 K.
• Nick Markakis singled, doubled and homered. If he keeps showing the able to turn on the ball when the opportunity presents itself, his power numbers should tick back up. 
• Cesar Izturis went 2-3 (including a perfect bunt single) and did his usual work at short.
• Derrek Lee only had one hit and K'ed twice (and grounded into a double play), but he picked, what, 4-5 balls out of the dirt at first-base? Runs matter on both sides of the ball.

The Bad:

• Vlad picked up a couple hits, but still looks terrible at the plate. After this game his BABIP should be above .300, and he'll still have an OPS below .700. Hasn't walked yet. Only two extra-base hits.
• Luke Scott walked and doubled at the plate, but had some... adventures in the field. Between Lee and Luke, one guy had a heck of a game. Could put Lee's D and Scott's O up top, and vice versa here.
• With the O's up 5-4 going into the bottom of the 9th, I said that Buck Showalter should go with Koji Uehara (his best reliever) instead of Kevin Gregg (the "closer"). Well, how's that "win rule" working out for you Buck? Gregg gave up a game-tying home run to the first batter he faced. Then a double. He managed to not blow the game (two K's and a groundout from the Cap'n), but he shouldn't have been in the game. Then Mike Gonzalez came in in the 10th to blow the game (also partially on Buck - runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out, and he has Gonzolaez pitch to Swisher (who hit a sac fly) instead of walking him to set up the double play for Posada). Koji never pitched. $22 M "proven closers"!

The Final:

Four losses in a row. And this one looked good well into the game. Ugh. No game preview tomorrow, as I won't be around until maybe the 4th inning. Hopefully Zach Britton can act as a stopper versus the first-place Cleveland Indians.

A three game losing streak, and suddenly the O's not only find themselves out of sole possession first place but their pythag has dropped to an even .500.

Yankees:

	Batting	Fielding	fWAR
Brett Gardner	.171/.256/.257	0	-0.2
Derek Jeter	.237/.318/.263	0	0
Mark Teixeira	.222/.364/.556	0	0.4
Alex Rodriguez	.355/.474/.806	0	0.8
Robinson Cano	.317/.333/.585	0	0.4
Nick Swisher	.229/.310/.257	0	-0.1
Jorge Posada	.182/.229/.545	0	0
Curtis Granderson	.156/.250/.375	0	0
Russell Martin	.294/.333/.618	0	0.5

So that A-Rod guy might still have a decent year or two left in him.

Phil Hughes:

ERA	FIP	xFIP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	fWAR
16.50	11.26	7.73	1.5	6.0	28.6%	-0.3

Yeah, a K/BB ratio of 0.25 probably isn't going to cut it. Nor is giving up 3 home runs in 6 IP. Yikes.

Orioles:

	Batting	Fielding	fWAR
Brian Roberts	.214/.233/.500	0	0.1
Nick Markakis	.222/.310/.333	0	0
Derrek Lee	.194/.293/.306	0	-0.1
Vladimir Guerrero	.268/.268/.366	0	-0.1
Luke Scott	.188/.350/.250	0	-0.1
Adam Jones	.189/.205/.351	0	-0.1
Mark Reynolds	.273/.351/.515	0	0.3
Matt Wieters	.241/.333/.414	0	0.2
Cesar Izturis	.167/.375/.167	0	0

Mark Reynolds is only striking out ~30% of the time so far this year, but he's not walking as much as usual either (8%) and has only one home run. Production's production, but I don't expect these things to keep up as is.

Jake Arrieta:

ERA	FIP	xFIP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	fWAR
8.68	5.45	4.44	7.7	3.1	37.5%	0.0

Arrieta has pitched better than his ERA would indicate so far, walking fewer batters than he did last year (a little) while missing many more bats.

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Stats: UZR, WAR, ERA, FIP, xFIP, K/9 & BB/9, GB%, PitchFX

One of the things making the AL East such a tough division is that all of the teams are now being run well. The Blue Jays' new GM has set about rebuilding their club while also putting a solid product on the field, and one of the great moves he's made was actually managing to get rid of Vernon Wells' massive contract while actually getting real players in return. Much fun was made of LA's GM for picking Wells up a the time, and the early returns are looking, well, not so good.

The Good:

• Matt Wieters threw Brett Gardner out trying to steal and almost picked a runner off first later). Wieters' mechanics have improved greatly behind the plate, and that's allowed him to more effectively show off his cannon. That value defensively makes up for his bat being below average (at the moment). He played the all around game in this one though. 2-2, with a walk, a double, and a home run.
• Brian Roberts singeld and hit a two-run homer of his own, moving ahead of Adam Jone for the team lead (with 3).
• Brad Bergesen looked good in relief (he needed some work and the team needed some innings). Two perfect innings with 2 K's and 3 groundballs. Hopefully he carries it forward to his next start.

The Bad:

• Chris Tillman looked pretty terrible once again. He actually got his velocity up a little, touching 92 and averaging almost 90 mph, but that still not enough for a relatively straight fastball. Good take-aways; he actually kept the ball down pretty well - though "down" here means thigh-high instead of belt-high - and he did drop some nice curveballs in for strikes. Final line; 1.2 IP, 9 H, 6 R, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 HR. Today's BABIP (.800 - yikes) was brought to you by Tillman's "no-hitter" in his first start.

The Final:

This was just an ugly, dispiriting game before Wieters and Roberts broke the shutout in the 7th inning. Then it just ended up as a regular loss. Hoping for the split tomorrow.

The O's are coming off their first series loss of the season. Naturally, Yankee Stadium is a great place to get back on track. With the rain-out, it's only a two-game set. Makes it easier to get the sweep, I guess.

Yankees:

	Batting	Fielding	fWAR
Brett Gardner	.167/.265/.267	0	-0.1
Derek Jeter	.206/.300/.235	0	-0.1
Mark Teixeira	.182/.325/.545	0	0.2
Alex Rodriguez	.321/.441/.714	0	0.6
Robinson Cano	.324/.342/.595	0	0.4
Nick Swisher	.219/.289/.250	0	-0.1
Jorge Posada	.138/.194/.448	0	-0.1
Curtis Granderson	.172/.250/.414	0	0.1
Russell Martin	.30/.344/.633	0	0.5

Yeah, there's some aging. But this is still a deep and dangerous line-up.

AJ Burnett:

ERA	FIP	xFIP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	fWAR
4.09	3.02	3.17	9.0	2.5	29.0%	0.3

Burnett's 5.26 ERA last year wasn't completely representative of his pitching (4.46 xFIP), and he's started off 2011 pretty well.



There's never been much question about AJ's stuff. His fastball is down from 95-96 to ~93 mph, but that's still plenty hard and he's got that sharp curve.

Orioles:

	Batting	Fielding	fWAR
Brian Roberts	.189/.211/.432	0	0.0
Nick Markakis	.250/.342/.375	0	0.1
Derrek Lee	.219/.324/.344	0	0.0
Vladimir Guerrero	.270/.270/.378	0	-0.1
Matt Wieters	.192/.276/.231	0	0.0
Adam Jones	.212/.229/.394	0	0.0
Mark Reynolds	.241/.333/.448	0	0.2
Matt Wieters	.192/.276/.231	0	0.0
Robert Andino	.000/.000/.000	0	-0.2

While Hardy's out (looks like 2-3 weeks instead of 6 now), the O's can get a nice little offense-defense platoon going at short. Izturis starts when you need more D there (like with Britton on the mound) and Andino starts when you can give up some defense in favor of upgrading from atrocious to merely bad offensively (like with Tillman on the mound).

Chris Tillman:

ERA	FIP	xFIP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	fWAR
3.38	3.96	4.79	7.6	4.2	28.6%	0.2

I expect the 4.2 BB/9 to come down. Hopefully the 7.6 K/9 doesn't.



Imagining Tillman pitching against the Yankees, I see Robbie Cano hitting an 88 mph fastball, left up in the zone, very, very hard. I've split out his cutters - which PitchFX categorizes as fastballs or change-ups - on the movement chart, since they were a pretty distinct group (though I forgot to label them... oops). Pulling out the velocity and whiffs for them was trickier, so they're still mixed in with the other pitches there.

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Stats: UZR, WAR, ERA, FIP, xFIP, K/9 & BB/9, GB%, PitchFX