Over at CamdenDepot, I take a look at the players the Orioles lost from their organization from 2011 to 2012, and if any are really to be missed:

"Certainly you have to say that a part of the Orioles' success this year can be attributed to some of the players that Dan Duquette brought in in the off-season. What's a little more interesting, is that as of yet, there are no real regrets over players the O's lost from 2011.

Gone are: Jeremy Guthrie. Sent to the Rockies in the Jason Hammel trade... "

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I look at how much Manny Machado has contributed to the O's, relative to the alternatives, over at CamdenDepot:

Despite his top prospect status, I don't think the expectations for what Manny Machado would do in an Orioles' uniform this season were all that high. With Wilson Betemit on the DL though, the team need a third-baseman and decided to call up the 20 year-old from Double-A to fill in.

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The Orioles have gotten some really clutch performances this year, exemplified by Taylor Teagarden. I take a look at who's made the most of their production this year over at CamdenDepot; check it out.

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The Orioles splitting their four-game series with the Yankees in Baltimore was not ideal - it left them a game back in the AL East - but is was more or less the expected result given that New York is the better team but the O's had home-field advantage. Both victories for the team came in exciting fashion, perhaps especially the second one in which a hobbled Mark Teixeira slid into first-base attempting to beat a double play ball in the 9th - making it - but being called out to end the game. That win was bitter-sweet though, as earlier Nick Markakis was hit on the hand by a CC Sabathia pitch. Getting the W in the game but losing one of their best players for the rest of the regular season (and likely most, if not all, of any potential play-off run) is a trade-off I saw many people mentioning as essentially worthwhile (given that one decent but not outstanding player just isn't going to contribute much over the course of games).

Instead of looking at what Markakis' loss does to the team, I'll point you to Camden Depot's nice break-down of the changes; bottom line, it's something like 0.4 to 0.75 wins. In a close pennant race, that's certainly nothing to scoff at. But picking up a game on the Yankees due to the blown call* is a full win! Or was it?

* Replay please.

The situation: runners on first and third, one out, Yankees down by one in the top of the ninth. Teixeira hits a grounder to the second-baseman, throw to shortstop covering, relay to first to get Tex. If he beats the throw to first then the run counts. Some people seem to be viewing the difference between a "safe" and an "out" as the difference between a loss and a win, but it's clearly not close to that.

If Teixeira is safe, then the game is tied and there are two outs with a runner on first. The generic win expectancy for a home team in that situation is ~57%. With two outs it's unlikely the opposing team will score again, and the O's would only need one run to end the game in their favor in the bottom of the frame. Maybe you want to give the Yankees a bump for having A-Rod and Robby Cano coming up, but Jim Johnson is no slouch on the mound.

So the blown call probably benefited the Orioles by somewhere around 0.4 to 0.45 wins. That's right around the lower part of the estimate of the loss of Nick Markakis. Given that, I'd gladly trade a hand protector for Nick for a pair of glasses for the first-base ump. But that's not the universe we live in, so the O's are going to have to mix-and-match to keep things going (at least rosters are expanded now). The team's made a lot out of not all that much all season, so I wouldn't count on that to come to a halt now. It is a tougher climb though.

Haven't done one of these in a while, but I also hadn't been to the park in a couple months. It was fortunate that the Orioles started Joe Saunders yesterday (I've had arguments with people regarding Saunders not definitely being better than Tommy Hunter, and he didn't help those people with his first O's start), so I was able to see Zach Britton pitch instead.

The Good:

• Zach Britton was excellent - especially his slider. He kept the ball on the ground while also easily setting a career high in strikes (was 7). No walks plus groundballs plus missing bats (most of the K's were swinging) is generally going to result in some success. Final line; 8 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 10 K.
• Nick Markakis doubled and walked, pushing his wRC+ to 123 on the season (just above 2007's 122, but still well short of that great 2008's 137).
• Adam Jones crushed the 101st home run of his career (26th on the season).
• Mark Reynolds pulled a Markakis with a two-bagger and a free pass, and pushed his batting line into above average territory (101 wRC+). Might even be at replacement level now (-0.1 fWAR coming into the game).
• Taylor Teagarden showed off his one skill at the plate in his first at bat, lifting what seemed like a medium-depth flyball over the scoreboard in right-field. Later he it another one deep, but sent it to center so it only resulted in a double.

The Bad:

• Manny Machado went 0-3 with a strike-out, and hasn't really done anything since hitting 3 home runs early after his call-up. Not fair to judge him harshly for it given his age and his promotion straight from Double-A to the Majors. He "looks" pretty good out there - I think he'll be a quality Major Leaguer in the not too distant future, but doesn't appear to be there yet. On the bright side, at least, he's not chasing too many pitches out of the strike-zone. Lots of swings and misses though.
• Not that it really mattered, but Pedro Strop "allowed" 2 run when he came on in the 9th. At the start of the inning I said "O's ahead by 4, which means I expect Strop to give up 2-3 runs now." Yep. Two hits put runners on, and then Jim Johnson came in (allowed the runners to score), but locked down the save (he now has more of those - 41 - than the Astros have wins - 40). Another two-run win. Of the (now) 8 games in which Strop has given up a run, the O's have still won 6.
• The (presumably drunk) idiot in front of the press-box who yelled (loudly, and irritatingly) for the entire game. Someone said they could hear him on the TV broadcast. Just reduces the enjoyment factor from being at the park.

The Final:

The Orioles win again, and take 3 of 4 from the White Sox (the division leading White Sox, I should say). The O's are now in position to knock the Yankees out of sole possession of first place in the East (while ascending there themselves) in their series in New York. I'm not even sure how to handle that though.

A lot has been made this year (including by me) about the Orioles' run differential (bad) not matching up with their actual record (good). The O's have been outscored by 45 runs, which would indicate that they should be more like 57-66 than 66-57 - and their other non-W-L stats back up that kind of view (below average offense, poor defense, OK pitching-staff). It's the wins and losses that count though, and the team has already banked enough of them - however they got them - that they're actually in position for a play-off spot.

The run differential thing is pretty weird though. The Orioles have absolutely dominated in close games; when the margin of victory has been one run, they're 23-6 (easily the best record in the Majors); and when the margin of victory has been two runs, they're 20-12. In all other games the team is just 24-39.

Quick aside for some stuff I thought was interesting while looking at this:

The O's haven't even played a ton of close games in general; the 29 overall one-run games is the 5th fewest in the AL, and below the league average of 31+. If they could only (a) engineer more close games, and (b) continue their crazy success in them, then they could actually approach 90 wins.

Either the O's win a close one, or they lose - not surprising given the above records. The degree to which this has been true is a little staggering though; they've won by what seems like a reasonable 4 runs only twice all year, which is often as the team has been blown out by 12 runs.

Sixes have been somewhat lucky, as the team has also dominated when that has been the margin of victory (10-4). They've won as many times by exactly 6 runs as they have when coming out ahead by 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, etc. runs... combined.

There is something to be said for the bullpen having a lot to do with the team's success. Buck Showalter has done a nice job leveraging the better relievers, having Pedro Strop and Jim Johnson pitching in closer games while throwing Kevin Gregg out there in mop-up duty. In that way, if the O's are ahead by a little, they can keep that lead - and once the fall too far behind, it really doesn't matter how much more out of hand the game gets. For example;

Jim Johnson has one of the worse ERAs in the pen at 3.08, but over half of the runs he's allowed this season have come in two games (5 against the Twins in what turned out to be a 19-7 loss, and 6 against the A's that ended 14-9). Otherwise he's been a shutdown reliever coming in for high leverage innings. No pansy stuff either; 36 of his 39 entrances in save situations have been with leads of 1 or 2 runs, and he's actually come in to tie games more often than in games where the O's were ahead by 3 runs.

The opening act for JJ has usually been Pedro Strop and his 1.46 ERA. He generally appears in the 8th with a 1 or 2 run O's lead, and then passes that off to Johnson for the save. I wouldn't mind seeing him get his strike-out to walk ratio above 2, but the run prevention has been great (as evidences by his team best 3.0 pitching brWAR).

Beyond that, even when Strop and JJ have given up runs it's rarely mattered. A lot of that is fluky - Johnson comes in with a two-run lead and gives up one, but still gets the save. In fact, of the 7 games in which Strop gave up a run, the O's still went on to win 5 of them; and of the 8 games in which JJ gave up a run, the O's still won 6 of them.

On the other side, there's Kevin Gregg, who has the worst ERA in the pen for guys with at least 20 IP (3.99). He's pitched in 35 games; of those, the O's won 8 (three by 3 runs or more) and lost 27 (22 by 3 runs or more). Amusingly, of the 8 wins, in half Gregg only came in because the game went into extra innings. Generally speaking, the guy who's done the most regular damage to the team's run differential is the one being kept away from important games at all costs (the average leverage index when Gregg's entered a ballgame has been around 0.5).

The other top relievers - Darren O'Day and Troy Patton - are right there with Strop when it comes to pitching in close games (percent of appearances where the score differences was two or less: O'Day; 65%, Strop; 63%, Patton; 60%), but they tend to show up more with the game tied or the O's just behind. So that's a relatively deep stable of pitchers having very good years that are available to either turn slim leads into close wins or keep things tight enough for the O's to come back (for a close win).

Certainly other teams get the whole "use better pitchers at higher leverage times" thing, but perhaps the Orioles have more opportunities to use it to their advantage because of the in and out starting pitching (sometimes they're good and the top part of the pen can work, and sometimes they're really, really not, and then we get to see Captain Chaos). The O's have allowed 6+ runs in 36% of their games (compared to 31% as the Major League average), while also allowing 2 or fewer runs in 33% of their games (compared to 31% as the Major League average). And the team has taken advantage of those well pitched games, winning a higher than average share (95% versus 87% for all teams).

Another part of it is probably the offensive being below average, since that means fewer blow-outs in the O's favor (they're 16-20 in games decided by 5 or more runs). That makes it harder to get the run differential up since they don't run up the score as often as that gets done against them.

In any case, there's probably at least a little something the Orioles are doing that's helping them turn some middling overall stats into more wins than you'd expect. And it's hard to argue they haven't been very lucky on top of that. It would still be surprising to see them continue winning ~54% of their games going forward, but it's certainly fun while it lasts.

I have to say, I'm not completely enamored with the Orioles calling up Manny Machado today. He's a great prospect - hitting well in Double-A (the .266/.352/.438 line doesn't look earth-shattering, but it's well above average in context as noted by his 122 wRC+) and having only just turned 20 - but, well, he only has a partial season at Double-A and he only just turned 20. I have a hard time imaging Machado is going to provide any sort of significant improvement for the O's down the stretch, especially given his lack of experience at third-base. And his arbitration clock is starting a fair bit earlier than I would have expected.

On the other hand, if the Orioles like Machado enough to think he's got a good chance of being the team's starter at third-base next year, then getting him a little seasoning down the stretch this year makes some sense (assuming he'll be playing more often than not, rather than sitting on the bench). Also, even if Machado doesn't outplay a Robert Andino or a Wilson Betemit, it's possible that having someone who is capable on both sides of the ball (not a stretch to think Manny while be less of a horror at third than Betemit; and there's a non-zero chance he can out-hit Andino, even if I think fans are greatly overstating the probability of it) allows Buck to utilize the roster more effectively overall. To wit:

vs. Left-handed Pitchers:
Wilson Betemit - .145/.226/193 (yikes!)
Mark Reynolds - .280.413/.453

vs. Right-handed Pitchers:
Wilson Betemit - .304/.357/.508
Mark Reynolds - .188/.296/.356

Freeing Betemit from third-base and allowing him and Reynolds to platoon at first (or DH, with Chris Davis at first) can turn the position into one of relative strength for the team. Add a potential Nate McLouth/Lew Ford platoon in left (neither guy is good anymore, but each has been a slightly above average hitter in his career against opposite-handed pitchers), and the line-up on any given night could be decent one. If Betemit spells Machado at third against tougher righties and Andino is around for defense if learning a (somewhat) new position at the Major League level is as hard as it sounds, it could be a small plus.

Given where the Orioles are right now - in the thick of a pennant race based largely on "fluky" success in one-run and extra-inning games, but with less than two months to go (during which their "luck" could certainly hold) - a small plus could be enough. And promoting Machado too early is definitely far less troublesome for the future of the franchise than trading him (or another young player) for a rent-a-vet would be. So while it might have been better to have to be patient about it, I'm excited to see Machado play tonight and hope he can show at least a little something this year.

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